Societe Generale analysts highlight a strong rebound in global risk appetite, benefiting the South African Rand. USD/ZAR is seen as vulnerable after failing to hold above its 200-day moving average at 17.00, with scope to grind toward 16.00. Softer SARB tightening expectations and lower local yields add further support to ZAR.

Rand gains with carry and risk bid

"ZAR is a clear beneficiary, supported by the risk rebound and a renewed lift in gold."

"USD/ZAR looks vulnerable, with scope to grind toward 16.00 following the failure to sustain above the 200dma (17.00)."

"Local rates add fuel to the rand - SARB FRAs have aggressively repriced, now implying just 19bp of tightening at the next meeting (vs 34bp last week) and 36bp cumulatively by year‑end (vs 83bp)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)