South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (6.75%)

ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent are up around 2% after sharp volatility around $100/bbl as markets react to conflicting US‑Iran ceasefire signals.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $803.2B to $776.8B

Nordea's Chief economist Kjetil Olsen and Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard note that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank now signals a policy rate hike to 4.25% at an upcoming meeting, with the new path pointing to 4.25–4.50% by year-end.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is trading just below 160.00 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases new underlying CPI indicators, which remain below the 2% target but are converging toward it.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations to end the conflict keeps markets on edge, with price action largely driven by hawkish global interest rate expectations stemming from an Oil-driven inflation shock.

The Pound (GBP) is trading lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, snapping a four-day positive streak.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 210K for the week ending March 21.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.86M) in March 13: Actual (1.819M)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 210.5K (March 20) vs previous 210.75K

United States Initial Jobless Claims in line with forecasts (210K) in March 20

USD/CHF trades higher around 0.7930 on Thursday, up 0.15% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a bullish tone amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The pair is supported by sustained demand for the Greenback, driven by fading hopes for a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Pound (GBP) has been resilient since the Iran conflict, supported by a sharp hawkish shift in UK rate expectations.

Societe Generale analysts comment on the latest Reuters European Central Bank (ECB) poll showing more economists now expect at least one rate increase this year, though a majority still see no move.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke report that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to leave rates unchanged, with markets no longer pricing cuts in the near term after the Iran conflict.

Brazil Mid-month Inflation above forecasts (0.29%) in March: Actual (0.44%)

55 of 82 economists polled by Reuters think that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the policy rate unchanged at the 3.5%-3.75% range at least until September.

The USD/INR pair is expected to open higher on Friday after a holiday in Indian markets on Thursday due to Ram Navami celebrations.

ING's Francesco Pesole focuses on Bank of England (BoE) communication, noting mixed but generally hawkish tones from Megan Greene and Sarah Breeden, while Alan Taylor remains dovish. He expects greater room for dovish repricing in the Pound curve under a de-escalation scenario.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights growing pressure on the South African Rand as ZAR leads high‑yield EM outflows ahead of the SARB decision.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) heads south against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day, extending its reversal from last week's highs, a few pips short of 0.5900, to session lows at 0.5781 on Thursday’s European trading session.The risk-sensitive Kiwi has been hit by a sour market sentim

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that the ECB is signalling a tougher reaction function to an energy-driven inflation shock, contrasting with past cycles.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes renewed risk aversion is lifting the Dollar as the Iran conflict escalates, with Oil higher and global equities and bonds weaker.

The Pound Sterling trades marginally lower against its major currency peers, edging down to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.

TD Securities reports that Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with expectations, but shifted guidance toward a base case of at least one rate hike in 2026.

In a post published on Truth Social on Thursday, United States (US) President Donald Trump called Iranian negotiators "very different and strange."

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden stated at a panel discussion during European trading hours on Thursday that the monetary policy should remain steady until the United Kingdom (UK) central bank has sufficient information.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $92.05 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 1.73% on the day, extending its positive bias despite a lack of strong bullish conviction.

The US Dollar (USD) maintains an immediate bullish tone against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, extending its rebound from Monday’s lows at 158.00 to levels above 159.50 so far.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 2% to near $4,410 during the European trading session on Thursday.