BNP Paribas’ Stéphane ALBY assesses how Gulf economies are absorbing the conflict-related shock. He notes that Oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have been severely disrupted, with Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar hit hardest, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE partially benefit from higher Oil prices.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 7% in April 10 from previous 7.6%

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose warns that USD/TRY is gaining momentum towards 45.00 as Turkey faces a worsening external backdrop and extended energy price shock.

Deutsche Bank’s Sebastian Becker assesses Germany’s new fiscal relief package to counter higher energy prices from the conflict in Iran, judging it small relative to 2026 GDP and earlier 2022–23 measures.

Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), rose to 4% on a yearly basis in March from 3.4% in February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 4.6%.

Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expect Banxico to deliver one more 25bp rate cut in May 2026, bringing the policy rate to 6.50% by year-end.

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.6%) in March

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 3.8%, below expectations (4.2%) in March

United States Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.5%, below expectations (1.2%) in March

United States Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (4.6%) in March: Actual (4%)

Private-sector hiring in the US has added extra momentum in late March. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 39K jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 28.

ING analysts note that the Dollar’s rebound has faded as markets price a de-escalation in US‑Iran tensions and falling Oil prices.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias on Tuesday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as investors react to renewed optimism surrounding potential US-Iran negotiations.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average up to 39K in March 21 from previous 26K

The (EUR) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) for the seventh consecutive day on Tuesday.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that EUR/USD had previously rallied faster than relative rates implied on expectations of a weaker Dollar under President Trump, but now lags rate differentials as the US economy outperforms the Eurozone and retains safe-haven appeal.

TD Securities analysts highlight a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after Deputy Governor Hauser signaled limited confidence that current policy is sufficient to return inflation to target.

Commerzbank’s Christoph Rieger flags that European Central Bank (ECB) communication and research around the IMF Spring meetings could support a more forceful policy stance.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, reaching four-week highs above 0.7120 at the time of writing and drawing closer to the 2026 high at 0.7187.

Rabobank analysts flag that final March CPI across the Eurozone will refine how the Hormuz-driven energy shock feeds into Euro-area inflation.

The NZD/USD pair trades 0.5% higher to near 0.5900 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms its peers amid risk-on market sentiment.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that global risk sentiment has improved as US–Iran diplomacy keeps a ceasefire in place, pushing Brent lower and the US Dollar (USD) softer.

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing a moderate bullish tone for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with price action approaching the $4,800 level after bouncing from one-week lows at $4,664 on Monday.

The United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March is scheduled to be published today at 12:30 GMT.

Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.74% from previous 2.72%

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Gold steadied after an early stumble and remains underpinned by unresolved geopolitical risks and structural demand.

United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 95.8, below expectations (98.6) in March

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Brent Oil has retreated below $100 as hopes grow for a US–Iran deal, easing fears of a stagflationary shock.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and hawkish MPC members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene speak today, with Greene recently sounding more balanced.

Rabobank strategists note that US stocks have risen even as the Hormuz crisis threatens higher energy costs.