Deutsche Bank’s analysts highlight sharp Brent Oil volatility as Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive price swings. They note Brent crude rebounded after a steep Friday selloff, but remains sensitive to ceasefire headlines and shipping probabilities.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Pound (GBP) is steady versus the US Dollar (USD) after recovering from an initial reaction to renewed US–Iran tensions.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a busy week of European Central Bank speakers before the blackout period, with officials signalling readiness to hike if needed but preferring more time. Markets have removed a 30 April move and see roughly 50% odds of a June hike, which ING expects.

MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that the Pound (GBP) has underperformed alongside the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR), leaving GBP/USD and EUR/GBP relatively stable near 1.3500 and 0.8700.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that Governor Ueda’s earlier hawkish signals have been tempered by more cautious comments at the IMF meetings, leading some forecasters to doubt an April Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% year-over-year, mainly on higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East and tax distortions.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap as evolving geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran war keep volatility elevated across global financial markets.

HSBC strategists highlight this year’s sharp volatility, with prices swinging between about USD 4,405 and USD 5,450 per ounce before stabilising near USD 4,800.

BNP Paribas expects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to edge up to 1.6% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025, supported by German fiscal measures, higher military spending and AI-related investment.

Quoting a senior Iranian official, Reuters reported on Monday that Iran is positively reviewing its participation in the next round of peace talks with the United States, but no final decision has been made.

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8700 on Monday, remaining broadly stable on the day at the time of writing as opposing forces between the Euro (EUR) and the Pound Sterling (GBP) keep the cross within a narrow range.

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Aluminium prices briefly dropped as Iran pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz open during a ceasefire, but renewed closure has refocused markets on supply risk.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar (USD) has rebounded at the start of the week, lifting the Dollar Index (DXY) back towards its 200-day moving average near 98.500 after Friday’s low around 97.63.

The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with GBP/JPY snapping a two-day losing streak as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices elevated and the Yen on the defensive, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains the weakest G10 currency, with USD/JPY trading just below 160 on fears of Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention.

TD Securities strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for February to show stabilisation, with a slight dip in unemployment and moderate job gains. Wage growth is forecast to slow across key measures, aligning with consensus.

Annual inflation in Canada, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 2.4% in March from 1.8% in February, Statistics Canada reported on Monday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.5%.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM): 0% (March) vs previous 0.2%

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.9%, below expectations (1.1%) in March

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.4%

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.5% in March from previous 2.3%

The Euro (EUR) has retraced previous losses against the US Dollar (USD) following a weak weekly opening, as rising tensions between the US and Iran have curbed hopes of a swift resolution of the conflict.

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) highlights that renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions have lifted Brent Oil nearly $10 from recent lows and weighed on global risk assets, with the US Dollar (USD) slightly firmer.

Gold’s (XAU/USD) is practically flat at $4,790 on Monday, as investors return to the safety of the US Dollar (USD) amid threats to the US-Iran peace process.

Societe Generale strategists highlight that Brent futures have swung sharply with conflict headlines, recently rebounding to $95/bbl.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its major currency peers during the late European trading session on Monday, trading 0.15% lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.7155.

TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate as higher energy prices lift the headline rate, while food disinflation offsets some of the impact.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Monday, slipping by 0.06% at the time of writing as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens modestly against the US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar (USD) bounced up from 0.7775 lows against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, but the ensuing recovery attempts have remained below the 0.7845 level on Monday, which leaves the immediate bearish trend in play.