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View the daily news commentary to obtain insight on the financial markets.

Eurozone: Rising energy shock challenges ECB – ING

March 31, 2026, 1:03:27 PM UTC
ING’s Bert Colijn notes that Eurozone inflation has jumped from 1.9% to 2.5%, driven entirely by higher energy prices, while core and food inflation continue to ease.
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United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 1.2%, below expectations (1.3%) in January

March 31, 2026, 1:00:01 PM UTC
United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 1.2%, below expectations (1.3%) in January
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United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in January

March 31, 2026, 1:00:01 PM UTC
United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in January
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WTI Crude Oil pulls back on Iran de-escalation hopes as markets eye API inventory draw

March 31, 2026, 12:56:13 PM UTC
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $99.60 on Tuesday, down 2.30% on the day at the time of writing, ending a four-day winning streak as markets react to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could ease.
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United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 6.9% in March 27 from previous 6.7%

March 31, 2026, 12:55:01 PM UTC
United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 6.9% in March 27 from previous 6.7%
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Fed: Liquidity rule changes reshape lender-of-last-resort role – BNP Paribas

March 31, 2026, 12:50:59 PM UTC
BNP Paribas analyzes US plans to ease bank liquidity rules to help restore the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) lender-of-last-resort function and potentially enable further balance sheet reduction.
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Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0%) in January: Actual (0.1%)

March 31, 2026, 12:30:02 PM UTC
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0%) in January: Actual (0.1%)
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AUD/NZD: Pullback seen as chance to re‑enter longs – TD Securities

March 31, 2026, 12:28:19 PM UTC
TD Securities remains constructive on AUD/NZD, viewing recent weakness as a correction within an ongoing uptrend.
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Gold hovers below $4,600 as traders weigh Mideast de-escalation hopes and interest rate outlook

March 31, 2026, 12:14:12 PM UTC
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with an upside bias on Tuesday, on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
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INR: Realized flows show heavy selling - BNY

March 31, 2026, 12:06:11 PM UTC
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that the Indian Rupee (INR) faces continued pressure, recording the highest level of realized selling among Asia-Pacific (APAC) currencies in March.
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South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) rose from previous 9.31B to 36.92B in February

March 31, 2026, 12:00:38 PM UTC
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) rose from previous 9.31B to 36.92B in February
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Trump criticizes UK and France, urges allies to secure their own Oil routes

March 31, 2026, 11:51:31 AM UTC
In a series of posts on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump criticized several US allies, including the United Kingdom (UK) and France, over their position following the recent US operation targeting Iran.
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JPY: BoJ may advance hike on Iran conflict risk – Commerzbank

March 31, 2026, 11:49:04 AM UTC
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says Japan’s inflation outlook remains contained, with core prices still within the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target range and second‑round effects not yet visible.
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GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound remains weak below 211.00

March 31, 2026, 11:41:20 AM UTC
The Pound (GBP) is posting a fragile recovery attempt against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, following Monday’s sharp reversal. The pair found support at 210.00 on Monday, but recovery attempts remain limited below a previous support level around 211.00.
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USD: Energy shock supports strength as Fed stays cautious – MUFG

March 31, 2026, 11:36:03 AM UTC
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is trading at its strongest levels since May last year as the Middle East conflict fuels concerns over a prolonged energy price shock that could hit global growth outside the US harder.
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Pound Sterling outperforms its peers as Trump’s peace call underpins risk-on mood

March 31, 2026, 11:26:00 AM UTC
The Pound Sterling trades higher against its major currency peers, rising 0.17% to near 1.3200 against the US Dollar (USD), during the European trading session on Tuesday.
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EUR/GBP: Rebound tests key averages – Societe Generale

March 31, 2026, 11:24:50 AM UTC
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note that EUR/GBP has bounced from February’s 0.8610 support and is now approaching its 200‑day moving average.
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RBA: May hike likely as inflation risks build – TD Securities

March 31, 2026, 11:12:22 AM UTC
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes the RBA hiked in March citing persistent inflation, strong demand, a tight labour market and higher Oil prices.
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USD/CHF rises for sixth day as risk sentiment improves, SNB stance weighs on Franc

March 31, 2026, 11:06:10 AM UTC
USD/CHF advances on Tuesday, rising 0.12% to trade near 0.8005 at the time of writing, extending a six-day winning streak. The pair is supported by a slight advantage for the US Dollar (USD) and relative weakness in the Swiss Franc (CHF) amid improving global risk appetite.
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ECB’s Müller: Can't rule out rate hike in April

March 31, 2026, 10:52:44 AM UTC
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Madis Müller said in an interview in Tallinn, reported by Bloomberg during European trading hours on Tuesday, that there could be an interest rate hike by the central bank in the April policy meeting.
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls remain capped below $4,600

March 31, 2026, 10:40:15 AM UTC
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a moderate bullish tone on Tuesday, extending its recovery from last week’s lows near $4,100, yet with resistance at the $4,600 area, holding upside attempts for now.
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EUR/USD: Rate repricing and oil shock cap upside – ING

March 31, 2026, 10:05:46 AM UTC
ING’s Chris Turner notes short-dated Euro swap rates have started to edge lower after a sharp spike, but real rate differentials have moved against EUR/USD. He argues this could be Euro-negative if the ECB refrains from an April hike while inflation expectations stay high.
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India Trade Deficit – RBI dipped from previous -68.5B to -87.4B in 3Q

March 31, 2026, 10:02:32 AM UTC
India Trade Deficit – RBI dipped from previous -68.5B to -87.4B in 3Q
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Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) declined to -1% in January from previous 3.6%

March 31, 2026, 10:00:51 AM UTC
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) declined to -1% in January from previous 3.6%
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Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.3% in January

March 31, 2026, 10:00:38 AM UTC
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.3% in January
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Oil: War-driven volatility and structural risks – Rabobank

March 31, 2026, 9:54:47 AM UTC
Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights that Brent has eased to around $111 and WTI to $102 despite a Kuwaiti tanker being hit, while European and African Oil markets are tightening as Asia fills supply gaps. He cites Bloomberg’s warning of $140 Oil if Red Sea shipping is hit again.
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EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1500 as Eurozone HICP grows below forecasts

March 31, 2026, 9:53:52 AM UTC
The EUR/USD’s tame recovery attempts seen earlier on Tuesday have been capped below 1.1490, before the release of softer-than-expected Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures.
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NOK: Oil-driven gains seen reversing after war – Commerzbank

March 31, 2026, 9:45:00 AM UTC
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) has outperformed Swedish Krona (SEK) thanks to Norway’s energy-exporter status during the war-related commodity shock, despite similar rate expectations.
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Euro area: Rising energy risks support ECB hike case – Nordea

March 31, 2026, 9:35:36 AM UTC
Nordea’s Chief Analyst Anders Svendsen and Chief Economist Tuuli Koivu note Euro area inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year in March and is expected to approach 3% in coming months.
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Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data

March 31, 2026, 9:33:16 AM UTC
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $73.14 per troy ounce, up 4.36% from the $70.09 it cost on Monday.
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