TD Securities’ Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy team reviews April Australian CPI, noting headline inflation undershot consensus while the trimmed mean matched expectations.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to attract buying interest on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) and Oil prices trade on the back foot, with markets remaining cautiously optimistic that the United States (US) and Iran could eventually reach a deal to end the war in the Middle East.

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 9% (May 22) vs 8.1%

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Hungary held its base rate at 6.25% but signalled a dovish shift, with June cuts fully priced and markets now seeing a terminal rate near 5.25%.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a hawkish hold at its latest monetary policy meeting, signaling that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will likely need to rise sooner and by more than projected in the

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke highlights Riksbank member Per Jansson’s argument that weaker demand, higher policy rates and softer inflation allow Sweden to wait and see despite the Iran-related energy shock.

Iran's State TV reported that it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework of the Memorandum of Understanding with the United States (US).

Private-sector hiring in the US has cooled in early May. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 35.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 9.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 35.75K (May 2) vs previous 42.25K

Societe Generale’s commodity team notes Brent has lost its 50-day moving average and is testing support around $96.

Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.62%, above expectations (0.53%) in May

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that global equities extend gains on AI optimism and Iran peace talks.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD slid toward 0.7136 and is expected to settle closer to 0.7000, consistent with Australia–US 2‑year yield spreads.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down almost 3.5% to near $74.10 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strength against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may be about to reverse. 

ING’s Chris Turner notes EUR/USD remains sluggish despite progress toward a US–Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and despite hawkish ECB commentary from Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel.

The Euro (EUR) posts minor gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, trading near 1.1640 at the time of writing, right below weekly highs at the 1.1650 area.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Hungary’s MNB kept rates at 6.25%, citing Iran-related inflation risks but acknowledging room to cut after a strong Forint rally.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.7% to near $4,475 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The precious metal faces selling pressure even as oil prices have tumbled.

TD Securities reports that the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% in a split decision, with Governor Breman’s casting vote preserving the hold.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous -2.3% to -8.5% in May 22

The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps drifting lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair ticks higher for the fourth consecutive day, reaching fresh one-month highs at 159.45, and nearing the key 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable Yen weakness for Japanese authorities.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Wednesday.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that AUD/USD has pulled back toward its 50-day moving average after an interim high near 0.7280.

Deutsche Bank analysts note Brent Oil retraced about half of Monday’s sharp fall as optimism over a potential US-Iran deal faded slightly, before slipping again in early trading.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes USD/JPY is broadly stable as Japanese Government Bond demand improves and crude Oil declines support lower JGB yields. He highlights stronger super-long JGB auction metrics and broader domestic buying.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading sideways against its main peers on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, flatlines around 99.00 at the time of writing, halfway through the weekly range, with investors awaiting clarity from Iran’s war.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $75.46 per troy ounce, down 1.96% from the $76.97 it cost on Tuesday.

Danske Research Team notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.25%, matching expectations, but signalled a need for faster tightening. They now project at least two more hikes by year-end, which lifted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and front-end yields.

RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets updates its Brent crude outlook as it assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more months, potentially reopening in September.