Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes that, against a backdrop of geopolitical risk, the EU is pushing to diversify its economic alliances, signing a free trade agreement with Australia after deals with Mercosur, India and Indonesia.

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.7% (March 20) vs 6.4%

The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure on Tuesday after registering modest gains in the previous day, weighed down by a slight rebound in the US Dollar and softer-than-expected preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say Copper prices on the LME are retreating after Monday’s rally that followed a temporary pause in US strike plans on Iran.

United States Unit Labor Costs above forecasts (3.3%) in 4Q: Actual (4.4%)

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8650 on Tuesday, holding steady on the day as investors digest a series of weaker-than-expected activity releases in both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom (UK), pointing to a clear slowdown in growth.

Private-sector hiring in the US appears to have regained a bit of momentum early in March. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 10K jobs per week in the four weeks through March 7.

BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage relays comments from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, who expects the Middle East conflict to lift near‑term headline inflation and weaken New Zealand’s growth momentum.

European Central Bank policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said on Tuesday that the rising energy prices are likely to become entrenched in wider economy more quickly than they did during the 2022 energy crisis, as reported by Reuters.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a subdued tone on Tuesday, struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound as investors continue to assess geopolitical developments in the Middle East amid conflicting signals from the United States and Iran over potential negotiations.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average climbed from previous 9K to 10K in February 28

Societe Generale analysts say EUR/HUF’s February decline stalled near 374 before a sharp rebound toward 400, with the 50‑DMA at 383/381 acting as key support. They expect possible consolidation between 383 and 396, warning that a break below support could revive the broader downtrend.

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.22%) in March

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation registered at 0.62% above expectations (0.37%) in March

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Vincent Stamer notes that the Euro area composite PMI fell from 51.9 to 50.5 in March, with services weakening and manufacturing flattered by longer delivery times. He links this to the war in Iran, which is hurting expectations and lifting input prices.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that USD/JPY is trading directionless just below 159.00 as Japanese inflation slowed in February but is expected to rebound.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects UK inflation to hold at 3.0% year-on-year in February, in line with the Bank of England (BoE) and market consensus. Core CPI is seen steady at 3.1%, with services easing but core goods ticking higher.

ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Gold has broken below $4,100/oz, extending a record ten-session decline as higher real yields and a firmer Dollar offset geopolitical support.

Germany 5-y Note Auction: 2.72% vs 2.4%

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is up 2% to near $90.00 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The oil price holds early gains, driven by Iran’s refusal to be involved in any direct talks with the United States (US) regarding the end of conflicts in the Middle East.

United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction up to 4.911% from previous 4.585%

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after a strong recovery move the previous day.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar remains under pressure after a sharp sell-off linked to de-escalation in the Middle East. The Dollar index again failed to clear 100.00 and retreated toward 98.88.

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister notes that despite low Hungarian inflation and February’s initial 25 bp cut, the Iran war has shifted priorities, with markets and the bank expecting the central bank of Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to hold rates today.

United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falls sharply to 51.0 vs. 53.7 in February, according to flash estimates, due to a slowdown in both manufacturing and the services sector activity.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $69.56 per troy ounce, up 0.57% from the $69.17 it cost on Monday.

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2, below expectations (53) in March

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.4 above expectations (51.1) in March

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (52.8) in March: Actual (51)

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing regional tensions are keeping risks elevated for Oil and broader energy markets.