US ADP Employment Change drops to -32,000 in November vs. 5,000 expected
Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 42,000 increase recorded in October and came in worse than the market expectation of +5,000.
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This section below was published as a preview of the ADP Employment Change data at 11:13 GMT.
The United States (US) Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data for November is due for release today at 13:15 GMT.
Investors will pay close attention to the US ADP Employment Change data as it will indicate the current status of labor demand in the private sector. The agency is expected to show that private employers hired 5K fresh workers, significantly lower than 42K in October.
Signs of weakening US job market conditions would prompt expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.
However, better-than-projected ADP Employment Change figures are unlikely to pose a significant drag on Fed dovish expectations, as one-time upbeat numbers would be insufficient to ease policymakers' concerns about the labor market's health.
How could US ADP Employment Change affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD trades 0.3% higher to near 1.1663 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change data release during the European trading session. The pair stays above the upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1591, indicating a strong uptrend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (bullish) shows firm momentum without overbought conditions.
With the breakout of an inverse Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern in place, the neckline around 1.1600 should act a support now. On the upside, the October 17 high near 1.1728 would act as key resistance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.