UK flash Composite PMI arrives lower at 51.0 in March vs. 53.7 prior

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UK flash Composite PMI arrives lower at 51.0 in March vs. 53.7 prior

United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falls sharply to 51.0 vs. 53.7 in February, according to flash estimates, due to a slowdown in both manufacturing and the services sector activity. The Services PMI arrives significantly lower at 51.2 from the previous reading of 53.9, and the Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.4 from the prior release of 51.7.

“Output growth across manufacturing and services has slowed to a crawl as companies blamed lost business directly on the events in the Middle East, whether through heightened risk aversion among customers, surging price pressures, higher interest rates, or via travel and supply chain disruptions," Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.

Market reaction

GBP/USD is down 0.3% to near 1.3380 as of writing, while the downside in the pair appears to be driven by Middle East conflicts rather than the PMI data.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.

S&amp;P Global Composite PMI

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.18%	0.34%	0.17%	0.11%	0.64%	0.62%	0.05%
EUR	-0.18%		0.13%	0.00%	-0.07%	0.46%	0.44%	-0.13%
GBP	-0.34%	-0.13%		-0.13%	-0.20%	0.33%	0.31%	-0.26%
JPY	-0.17%	0.00%	0.13%		-0.04%	0.48%	0.46%	-0.11%
CAD	-0.11%	0.07%	0.20%	0.04%		0.52%	0.50%	-0.06%
AUD	-0.64%	-0.46%	-0.33%	-0.48%	-0.52%		-0.01%	-0.61%
NZD	-0.62%	-0.44%	-0.31%	-0.46%	-0.50%	0.01%		-0.57%
CHF	-0.05%	0.13%	0.26%	0.11%	0.06%	0.61%	0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

(This section below was published at 07:55 GMT as a preview of the flash UK PMI data for March)

The UK Services PMI Overview

The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March to be released by the S&P Global on Tuesday, later this session at 09:30 GMT.

S&P Global Services PMI is expected to come in at 53.0 in March, inching down from 53.9 recorded in the previous month.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD may remain subdued if the S&P Global Services PMI meets expectations, potentially adding downward pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid persistent risk aversion linked to the Middle East concerns. Traders will shift their focus toward the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data due on Wednesday.

The Pound Sterling may strengthen as the Bank of England’s (BoE) outlook points to an extended pause due to inflation concerns linked to surging oil prices. Analysts expect possible rate hikes in 2026. The BoE held rates steady at 3.75% at its March meeting, in line with expectations.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the British Pound amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. Geopolitical risks have intensified as US-aligned Gulf states move closer to direct involvement in the Iran conflict. Potential attacks on critical energy infrastructure would raise fears of broader regional instability. Traders remain focused on the incoming flash S&P Global US PMI for March due later in the day, which could provide fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Technically, the GBP/USD pares its daily losses and is trading around 1.3420 at the time of writing. The immediate barrier lies at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3446, aligned with the potential level of 1.3450. On the downside, the nine-day EMA at 1.3381 is acting as an immediate support.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.