Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, effectively signalling an end to its 200 bps easing cycle over the past year. With headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) running above NBP projections and a favourable balance of payments, Haddad argues positive real rates continue to underpin the Polish Zloty (PLN).

Stable policy and supportive real rates

"National Bank of Poland (NBP) is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% for a second straight meeting today."

"NBP will likely signal that its easing cycle, which saw it deliver 200bps of cuts in the past year, is over."

"Poland headline and core CPI inflation are tracking above the NBP’s Q1 projection of 2.2% and 2.6%, respectively."

"Poland’s positive real rates and favorable balance of payments backdrop continue to underpin PLN."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)