Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch says platinum remains in a multi-year deficit, with above-ground stocks expected to cover less than three months of demand in 2026. However, World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data also point to a Q1 surplus and weaker demand. Fritsch sees platinum reaching USD 2,300/oz by year-end, mainly on higher Gold prices.

Tight stocks but weaker demand outlook

"The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects the platinum market to face a supply deficit of 297,000 ounces this year. This would mark the fourth consecutive year of a supply deficit in the platinum market. The supply deficit is also expected to be slightly higher than previously anticipated."

"With the deficit expected this year, above-ground stocks are set to fall to 1.747 million ounces and the stock-to-use ratio to 22%. Stocks would therefore cover demand for less than three months. It is also worth noting that the previous forecast for inventory levels this year was significantly higher, at 2.613 million ounces."

"However, there are also signs that market tightness is easing. For instance, in the first quarter, the platinum market recorded a supply surplus for the first time in six quarters. According to the WPIC, this stood at 268,000 ounces, compared with a supply deficit of 658,000 ounces in the corresponding quarter of the previous year."

"Platinum demand is expected to fall by 9% this year to a four-year low of 7.674 million ounces, according to the WPIC. The main factor weighing on demand is a significant weakening in investment demand, which is expected to more than halve compared with last year. The reasons for this are expected net outflows from platinum ETFs and an anticipated decline in exchange-registered stocks."

"The platinum price is therefore unlikely to generate strength of its own accord. Our expected rise in the price of platinum to USD 2,300 per troy ounce by the end of the year is primarily based on our forecast of a rising gold price."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)