Gold recovers from two-month lows as bond selloff takes a breather
- Gold rebounds from a two-month low as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar ease.
- High-for-longer Fed expectations and elevated borrowing costs continue to cap the upside.
- The technical setup remains fragile, with $4,100 providing the first line of support.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday as a modest pullback in US Treasury yields weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the metal recover after falling to a two-month low of $4,104 during Asian trading hours. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,156, up 0.41% on the day.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield eases to around 5.269% after touching 5.349% on Monday, its highest level since 2002. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, retreats toward 102.00 after reaching a fresh year-to-date high of 102.53 the previous day.
The pullback gives Gold some breathing room, although the rebound leaves its recent consolidation intact. The metal remains largely confined between $4,100 and $4,200, with buyers struggling to build a sustained recovery as yields hold near multi-year highs.
Elevated yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metal and help keep demand for the US Dollar firm. Sticky inflation and a resilient US growth outlook reinforce expectations that interest rates will stay high for longer, while growing fiscal and government debt concerns add further upward pressure on borrowing costs.
However, recent US employment figures and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure have shown signs of cooling, reducing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates again at the October 27-28 meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 80% chance of a hold.
A pause in October offers near-term support for the yellow metal, but a broader recovery may remain difficult as markets anticipate further tightening. The Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back toward its 2% target keeps the door open to a December rate hike.
The stalemate between the United States and Iran keeps energy-driven inflation risks elevated as Oil prices remain above pre-war levels. However, recovering Gulf exports and emergency reserve releases are weighing on Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $87, near one-month lows.
Against this backdrop, a stronger recovery in Gold would likely require a meaningful shift toward a less restrictive Fed outlook, accompanied by a sustained decline in Treasury yields and the US Dollar. Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes could offer fresh insight into how officials view the need for further rate hikes.
Over the longer term, Gold remains supported as the same debt and fiscal concerns pushing borrowing costs higher also strengthen its appeal as a store of value. Meanwhile, strong central-bank demand and inflows into Gold-backed exchange-traded funds further underpin demand for the metal.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD remains bearish below mid-Bollinger SMA
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20‑day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) at $4,263. Momentum is soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, hinting that recent downside pressure is not yet exhausted despite a modest stabilization above nearby support.
On the downside, initial demand is seen near the psychological $4,100 level, closely aligned with the lower Bollinger Band around $4,087. A break below this area could expose the deeper horizontal support zone around $4,000-$3,950.
On the topside, a first cap emerges at the mid‑Bollinger SMA at $4,263, ahead of the upper band resistance near $4,439 and the charted horizontal barriers at $4,500 and $4,700, which together define a dense supply zone that gold would need to clear to shift the bias back to constructive.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.