Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stands above $4,100 amid Fed easing hopes
- Dovish Fed rhetoric has buoyed Gold to Fresh weekly highs above $4,150.
- Lower US Treasury yields and a moderately soft US Dollar are buoying precious metals on Tuesday.
- Technically, a break of $4,100 would confirm a trend shift and bring $4,210 and $4,245 into focus.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading practically flat on Tuesday, holding most of the gains taken on Monday. Price action remains capped below the $4,150 area, yet with downside attempts contained above a previous resistance, at $4,100, as growing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December are hurting the USD.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for an interest rate cut in December at a Fox Interview on Monday, echoing Friday's comments by the New York Fed President John Williams, who said that a December rate cut was possible. This has increased pressure on US Treasury yields, acting as a headwind for US Dollar rallies.
Technical Analysis: A break of $4,150 confirms a trend shift
Gold is consolidating gains above a previous resistance area at $4,100 on Tuesday, after bouncing from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the early November rally, near $4,000, a common target for corrective moves.
The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is consolidating above the 60 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed above the 0 level and is printing green bars on the histogram, revealing a moderate bullish momentum.
A break above the mentioned $4.150 area (Intraday high, November 13 low), would confirm that the correction from the $4,250 area has completed, and bring the November 14 high, at $4,210, to the focus, ahead of the mentioned November peak, at $4,245.
A bearish reaction below $4,100, on the contrary, might increase pressure towards the November 21 and 24 lows, in the area between $4,020 and $4,040 ahead of the November 18 and the, $4,000 psychological level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.