Danske Bank analysts discuss US political risk around Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership, noting Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing is scheduled for 21 April as part of his confirmation process as Fed chair. They highlight Senator Tillis’ opposition linked to an investigation into Powell, Polymarket’s roughly 60% confirmation probability, and the contingency that Miran could become acting chair if Warsh is not confirmed before May.

Warsh hearing and succession scenarios

"In the US, Kevin Warsh's hearing in the Senate has been set for 21 April."

"While the hearing is an important step in the process to be confirmed as Fed chair, the sticking point remains Republican Senator Tillis' opposition to vote for his approval as long as an ongoing criminal investigation into Powell over cost overruns at the Fed's headquarters continues."

"Polymarket sees about a 60% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed before Powell's term ends in May."

"If Warsh has not been confirmed by then, Miran might be appointed acting Fed chair, while Powell may continue to serve as FOMC chair as his position on the board of governors runs until 2028."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)