European natural gas prices fell to fresh lows last week, with the TTF benchmark sliding more than 3% ahead of the Trump-Putin summit. The decline has widened the JKM premium over European prices, raising the likelihood of LNG cargoes being redirected to Asia, while Europe still faces the challenge of boosting storage from its current 74% level toward the 90% target, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

TTF drops over 3% ahead of Trump-Putin summit

"European natural gas prices came under further pressure over the last week ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) falling by more than 3%."

"This also left TTF settling at its lowest level since July 2024. Investment funds probably wanted to reduce risk heading into the weekend, given the uncertainty over how the talks could have unfolded. The weakness in TTF has seen the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) premium to European gas widening."

"This should see LNG cargoes diverted to Asia. However, with EU gas storage almost 74% full and still lagging both last year’s levels and the 5-year average, Europe will need to continue to see strong LNG inflows in order to get close to the 90% storage target."