BNP Paribas analysts assess how the new energy shock from war in Iran and higher Oil and gas prices compares with 2022 for the Eurozone. They argue the current backdrop is less inflationary, with weaker demand and fewer supply constraints, and central banks now more reactive.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman argues the US Dollar’s response to the Middle East-driven energy shock has lost momentum. He cites lingering optimism about a relatively quick end to the conflict, a higher US policy risk premium, and yield spreads moving against the Dollar as key factors.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Thursday, snapping a four-day rally as initial optimism that the US-Israel war with Iran could end soon faded after US President Donald Trump signaled continued military action in his address to the nation.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that Mexico’s strong US export performance and extensive USMCA compliance have cushioned the Mexican economy and the Peso from recent US tariff shocks.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and trims part of its intraday losses as markets remain volatile.

Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 (March) vs previous 50.6

Societe Generale analysts note the RBI has barred banks from offering INR NDFs to residents and non-residents to curb speculation, but they argue Rupee headwinds remain structural, tied to FPI outflows, Oil shock dynamics and slowing domestic growth, with 10-year yields seen heading toward 7.20–7.25

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $775.4B from previous $776.8B

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent Swiss inflation data and implications for the Swiss Franc. Foley notes that low Swiss CPI reduces pressure on the SNB to cut rates below zero, while credible FX intervention and safe-haven demand should keep CHF firm.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 202K for the week ending March 28.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.841M above expectations (1.84M) in March 20

United States Goods Trade Balance dipped from previous $-81.8B to $-84.6B in February

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 207.75K in March 27 from previous 210.5K

United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (212K) in March 27: Actual (202K)

Canada Imports increased to $72.05B in February from previous $66.13B

Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $-5.74B below forecasts ($-2.3B) in February

Canada Exports increased to $66.31B in February from previous $62.48B

United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-57.3B, above expectations ($-59.2B) in February

TD Securities analysts characterize the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) March Summary of Deliberations as slightly dovish, consistent with the March 18 decision. They stress patience, citing inflation near target, weaker GDP, housing softness and labour market headwinds.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that Central and Eastern European currencies remain under pressure despite recent gains in the Forint, Zloty and Koruna.

Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at -0.7% above expectations (-1%) in February

Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.7%) in February

Standard Chartered’s India economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand cut India’s FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.4% from 7.0% and FY26 to 7.3% from 7.6%, citing elevated energy prices and Middle East tensions.

Silver (XAG/USD) has lost more than $10, hammered by a risk-averse reaction to US President Trump's televised message on Wednesday. The precious metal is testing levels below $71.00 at the time of writing, after peaking at $81.13 on Wednesday, as the Dollar prevails in risk-averse markets.

TD Securities analysts note that US yields flattened as geopolitical headlines from Iran and comments by Trump dominated sentiment. Strong ISM Manufacturing and Retail Sales data surprised to the upside, while they expect a below-consensus 30k payrolls print and unchanged unemployment.

OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further oil output quota hike at the meeting on April 5, Sunday, to prepare for any easing of Strait of Hormuz export constraints, according to a report from Reuters.

United States Challenger Job Cuts rose from previous 48.307K to 60.62K in March

BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu highlights significant portfolio outflows from Middle East/North Africa (MENA) markets and warns that external funding gaps are likely to widen.

According to the Iranian state media, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRG) have reported that they targeted United States (US)-linked steel and aluminum facilities in Gulf states.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades higher against its major currency peers, except the US Dollar (USD), during the European trading session on Thursday.