ING’s Chief Economist Peter Vanden Houte notes that Eurozone industrial production declined in December but still showed annual growth, and argues that the cyclical recovery should continue.

The Euro (EUR) has resumed the last few days' bearish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and is retreating towards the 1.1850 level ahead of the US session opening.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Turkish Lira is rapidly approaching the bank’s 44.0 USD/TRY quarter‑end target as inflation expectations rise and external balances deteriorate.

The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, reaching the 0.7700 area at the time of writing.

DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow discusses USD rates as market participants reassess views following volatility and mixed US data. He notes 10Y US Treasury yields are nearing a 4% near-term forecast and describes a Goldilocks US economy with strong NFP and softer CPI.

Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a subdued note, extending its consolidation phase as traders remain reluctant to chase prices higher amid mixed macro signals. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $5,004, bouncing from an intraday low around $4,965, down roughly 0.55% on the day.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that stronger recent U.S. employment data have eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but slowing inflation keeps the door open to further easing in 2026.

The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the second consecutive day on Monday.

The AUD/USD pair regains ground after a two-day corrective move and is up 0.2% to near 0.7090 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds, with investors awaiting the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes on Tuesday.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that recent equity market turbulence has coincided with further Swiss Franc gains, with EUR/CHF consolidating well below 0.92.

India Trade Deficit Government above expectations ($26.14B) in January: Actual ($34.68B)

HSBC highlights that the Australian Dollar has been the top-performing G10 currency in early 2026, helped by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February rate hike, a soft Dollar and strong commodity and equity markets.

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Oil remains supported by a sizeable risk premium as markets await US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva. They argue that a more de-escalatory tone could see bearish fundamentals reassert and push prices lower.

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil has opened the week in the same weak tone seen at the end of the previous one, although prices remain steady within Friday’s trading ranges.

USD/JPY trades around 153.60 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.54% on the day, in a low-liquidity environment due to the closure of several Asian markets for the Lunar New Year and US markets for President’s Day.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades calm near 1.3645 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors shift focus to the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending December.

Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) below forecasts (1.3%) in December: Actual (1.2%)

Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (-1.5%) in December: Actual (-1.4%)

BNY's EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates at 2.25% (February 18) but acknowledges markets are increasingly pricing in tightening as inflation stays stubborn.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that the Russian central bank cut rates by 50 bps and raised its 2026 inflation forecast, while still projecting significantly lower average rates by 2027.

The Euro (EUR) is taking advantage of a somewhat softer Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, following downbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, to trim some of the previous days’ losses and reach session highs above 182.00.

Dow Jones futures rise 0.36% to around 49,750 during European hours on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.39% and 0.37%, respectively, trading near 6,880 and 24,900.

Deutsche Bank economists expect US real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in Q4 2025 from 4.4% previously, with much of the deceleration attributed to the record-long government shutdown.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $77.05 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.03% from the $77.03 it cost on Friday.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold has rebounded on softer US CPI and expectations of prolonged easy Fed policy, but the move remains measured after earlier volatile swings.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the early European session on Monday, though it has managed to rebound from the daily trough and currently trades above the $5,000 psychological mark.

Silver (XAG/USD) shows marginal losses on Monday, trading near $77.00 at the time of writing, with last week’s lows of $74.50 at short distance.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that weaker Japan Q4 GDP data has stalled recent Japanese Yen strength, with USD/JPY rebounding above 153.00 after briefly trading near 152.27.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights a heavy UK data calendar, with jobs and inflation likely to confirm cooling labour conditions and subdued core services inflation. If trends persist into March, he sees a Bank of England rate cut as increasingly likely.