MUFG’s Derek Halpenny links the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure to rising Oil and input costs, with agricultural and fuel prices already surging. Halpenny assumes crude Oil averages USD 115 in Q2, lifting US inflation toward 3.8% later this year.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.14% on the day and ending a sequence of four consecutive days of gains. The move comes amid a pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as improving market sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven assets.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that earlier supportive flows into the Norwegian Krone from energy prices and hawkish Norges Bank policy are now fading. Commodity FX momentum is softening, with NOK seeing outflows as hedge demand unwinds and policy expectations peak.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that stronger‑than‑forecast United Kingdom (UK) inflation and PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) raise the question of a potential hawkish dissent at next week’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, even though the house view is for a unanimous hold.

United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Friday that any attempts to lay more mines by Iran would be considered a violation of the ceasefire, per Reuters.

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in February: Actual (0.5%)

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen argues that muted market reactions have reduced urgency for central banks to act, even as Middle East conflict risks persist.

Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Friday, erasing earlier losses but remains on track to close the week in negative territory, as macro headwinds linked to ongoing Middle East tensions keep buyers on the sidelines.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that EUR/USD is hovering near its 200-day moving average as Eurozone data signal stalling growth and rising inflation pressures.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, despite the risk-averse mood, amid the growing uncertainty in the Middle East.

TD Securities analysts note United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales for March surprised to the upside at 0.7% month-on-month versus their 0.1% forecast and a flat market consensus. The strength was driven mainly by food and fuel, with Easter timing and front-loaded fuel purchases.

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a climbed from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in March

Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that USD/JPY is grinding higher toward the 160 level as geopolitical tensions and a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade fuel inflation risks.

BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Oil remains a key market barometer as the Iran war disrupts supply, with Brent up sharply and the International Energy Agency warning that the global natural gas market will stay tight for at least two more years.

Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi will reach Islamabad on Friday along with a small delegation for the second round of peace talks with the United States (US), Al Arabiya reported.

India FX Reserves, USD up to $703.31B in April 13 from previous $700.95B

Rabobank Senior US Strategist Philip Marey Global Economics & Markets discusses the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep policy unchanged and Chair Powell may face questions about the economic impact of the war with Iran.

NZD/USD trades higher around 0.5865 on Friday, gaining 0.22% at the time of writing, while the US Dollar (USD) loses ground with the US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.18% at 98.65.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping Brent elevated and supporting a firm Dollar, but sees the worst of the energy shock as past.

The GBP/USD pair recovers its early losses and turns positive around 1.3490 during the European trading session on Friday. The Cable gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects after a three-day winning streak.

TD Securities analysts expect Canadian Retail Sales to rise 0.7% month-on-month in February versus the market’s 0.9% consensus. They see stronger auto sales and higher gasoline prices underpinning the headline and ex-autos measures.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts marginal gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but remains near 10-day lows of 0.7110, with upside attempts capped below 0.7135 so far.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Peter Kazimir highlights the need for a slight interest rate increase during European trading hours on Friday, Bloomberg reported.

The US Dollar (USD) remains strong against its main peers on Friday, with the USD Index (DXY) steady at the upper range of the 98.00s, as investors are reluctant to take excessive risks. The DXY is on track for a 0.4% weekly gain as tensions between the US and Iran escalate.

Russia Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (14.5%)

The Indian Rupee (INR) slides further against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, extending its losing streak for the fifth trading day.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY has pushed up to 159.84, validating earlier expectations for a retest of 159.65. While upward momentum is slowing, they still look for the pair to edge higher within a 159.40–160.05 intraday band.

EUR/JPY trades around 186.70 on Friday, posting a modest 0.06% gain as investors remain cautious ahead of a week marked by monetary policy decisions from several major central banks. The pair is supported by a broadly resilient Euro (EUR), while facing mixed flows on the Japanese Yen (JPY).