Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that Mexico’s strong US export performance and extensive USMCA compliance have cushioned the Mexican economy and the Peso from recent US tariff shocks. He notes that US imports from Mexico rose in 2025, exemptions now cover a large share of trade, and Banxico can focus more on weak domestic growth than on US trade policy when setting rates.

USMCA exemptions and exports back Peso

"The high USMCA compliance has likely also saved Mexico. Compared to Canada (which is more dependent on steel and aluminum), Mexican exports to the US fared much better last year."

"Or to put it another way: US imports from Mexico in the period from August to December of last year did not decrease compared to the same period of the previous year, but actually increased slightly."

"Overall, Mexican exports to the US in 2025 increased by almost 6% compared to the previous year, while they declined by almost 7% in Canada."

"These developments are likely to have been one of the main reasons for the peso’s strong performance last year. We also suspect that there will be no slump in exports this year."

"If the conflict with Iran ends, USD/MXN is likely to fall slightly again."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)