BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that Euro area retail trade shows modest growth while Eurozone construction PMI signals a sharp contraction and rising cost pressures. German manufacturing orders and services turnover are improving, but France’s trade deficit is widening on energy imports.

EUR/GBP trades flat on Thursday as traders remain cautious ahead of the UK local election results, while also assessing the prospects of a possible US-Iran deal aimed at ending the war in the Middle East.

TD Securities strategist Bart Melek highlights that the Strait of Hormuz disruption has removed 9–10 million bbl/d from the market, keeping Brent near $100/bbl and potentially pushing it above $150/bbl.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 200K for the week ending May 2.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke argue that the Mexican Peso (MXN) is likely to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) in coming weeks as Banxico maintains a dovish stance despite rising inflation risks.

United States Unit Labor Costs down to 2.3% in 1Q from previous 4.4%

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.8M) in April 24: Actual (1.766M)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 207.5K to 203.25K in May 1

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 200K, below expectations (205K) in May 1

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that GBP/USD has risen above pre-war levels as United Kingdom (UK) local and Scottish elections test Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Societe Generale analysts note that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate at 3.75% and markets expect no further changes through 2026. Governor Glapinski’s press conference is expected to be uneventful unless he sounds very hawkish.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that expectations of progress toward peace in Iran are driving a bond rally and shaping flows in the United States (US) Treasury market. As Oil prices fall and real rates reprice, he argues exporter surpluses and reserve management trends could again favor the US Dollar (USD).

Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 4.3% above expectations (3.5%) in March

Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) above expectations (-0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

Mexico Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.31%) in April

Mexico 12-Month Inflation registered at 4.45%, below expectations (4.5%) in April

Mexico Headline Inflation below forecasts (0.25%) in April: Actual (0.2%)

Nomura's research analysts report that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.25% in May, citing frustration with sticky underlying inflation and a need to preserve credibility after earlier guidance.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Thursday, hovering near two-week highs as price action remains driven by geopolitical headlines, with traders awaiting further clarity around a possible peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3630 on Thursday at the time of writing, showing little change on the day, as lower Oil prices continue to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) while the US Dollar (USD) remains pressured as well.

ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that industrial metals, including Copper, rallied on Wednesday as progress towards a US-Iran deal improved risk appetite and eased fears of an energy shock, before paring gains on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.18% higher around 1.3620 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Cable reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure amid the optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a peace deal soon.

The Euro (EUR) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, trading at 1.1765 at the time of writing, fuelled by hopes of a peace deal that would end Iran’s war and upbeat Eurozone macroeconomic releases.

TD Securities strategist Bart Melek argues that Gold’s recent decline reflects the Iran-driven Oil shock, higher inflation expectations and a firmer US Dollar, which are keeping Fed policy tighter for longer.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) keeps marching higher at two-month highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as reports of progress in the US-Iran peace deal and lower Oil prices keep demand for the safe-haven US Dollar subdued.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar has given back all its war-related gains, with recent weakness seen as overdone.

Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Susan Collins said during the late European trading session on Thursday that she sees the central bank holding interest rates at their current levels for longer. Collins added that she expects interest rate cuts to be the baseline scenario going ahead.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.50% despite a rise in headline inflation to 2.5% year-on-year in April. Governor Michl has emphasized maintaining positive real rates to support savings.

The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers early losses and turns positive against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.

Silver (XAG/USD) keeps rallying on Thursday, with precious metals buoyed by lower Treasury yields amid a pullback in oil prices that has eased bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes.