Deutsche Bank strategists note that rising US yields and stronger data have pushed market pricing for a Fed rate hike by December to 81%, helping support the Dollar Index.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ declined to $748.7B from previous $753.8B

TD Securities strategists maintain a structurally bearish view on the US Dollar (USD) and a medium-term bias toward lower USD/CAD. They expect Fed easing in 2027, a high bar for further Bank of Canada (BoC) cuts, and improving Canadian terms of trade to support CAD.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 225K for the week ending May 30.

Societe Generale’s Anatoli Annenkov expects the ECB to deliver a 25bp risk-dependent insurance hike from a neutral stance, stressing data-dependency and trade-offs from early action.

United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 1.8% below forecasts (2.3%) in 1Q

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.777M below forecasts (1.78M) in May 22

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 225K above expectations (213K) in May 29

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 209K to 214.75K in May 29

NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.28% on the day after ending a three-day decline. The pair's rebound is supported by expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy in New Zealand, although caution remains warranted due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Gold (XAU/USD) climbs modestly as the US Dollar (USD) weakens in the wake of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the United States. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,497, up 1.40% on the day.

BNY’s Bob Savage reports that RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted a 75bp rise in the cash rate this year to return inflation to target, but noted inflation re-accelerated in late 2025 as growth, a tight labor market and higher Oil prices lifted costs.

ING’s Chris Turner notes USD/BRL may move toward 5.14 as the stronger US Dollar and local political and trade risks weigh on the Brazilian Real (BRL). He argues BRL is catching up with domestic rate markets and expects dips to find support given Brazil’s high yields and energy exporter status.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades higher on Thursday and has reached session highs above $4,490, after bouncing from $4,425 lows earlier on the day.

Danske Research Team expects the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, in line with market pricing and consensus. They highlight upside surprises in core inflation and higher Oil futures, alongside weaker Euro area growth.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that stronger ISM services data and higher US rates are shaping the backdrop for the US Dollar. The report notes that ISM services rose above expectations, driven by new orders and business activity, while employment stayed in contraction.

United States (US) President Donald Trump has criticized all Democratic and four Republican House members, through a post on Truth Social, for voting in favor of curbing the war against Iran.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/JPY briefly plunged before rebounding to close near 160.00, with upward momentum now fading. They expect the pair to consolidate between 159.20 and 160.30 in the near term, maintaining a firm underlying tone.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after a strong Wednesday. The USD/INR pair holds onto the previous day’s gains around 95.72 even as the Indian administration decides to scrap capital gains tax on overseas investment in government bonds.

Societe Generale strategists note that Central and Eastern European (CEE) policy paths are increasingly diverging, with Hungary moving toward easing while Poland and the Czech Republic remain on hold with a hawkish bias.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades in a tight range around $93.20 during the European trading session on Thursday. The oil price consolidates as negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran towards a permanent peace deal are going nowhere.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices remain closely linked to Middle East developments, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7135 at the time of writing on Thursday, up a modest 0.08% on the day, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from the release of stronger Australian trade data.

The Euro (EUR) is rallying against a weaker US Dollar (USD) in Thursday’s European trading session, reversing Wednesday’s losses and returning to the 1.3630 area at the time of writing.

The Eurozone Retail Sales data for April declines at a faster pace of 0.4% in April, compared to the 0.3% contraction expected. In March, the Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.8%, revised sharply higher from 0.1% decline.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US labor market is stabilizing and inflation is gaining traction, with ISM surveys and the Fed Beige Book reinforcing this view.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) keeps losing ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, but it has reversed most of the daily losses, as news of a deal between Israel and Lebanon has boosted hopes of progress in the US-Iran peace plan.

Ireland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-2%) in 1Q: Actual (-12.1%)

Ireland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at -17.1%, below expectations (-6%) in 1Q

EUR/JPY trades around 185.85 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day. The cross is supported by the Euro (EUR) as investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver another interest rate hike at its June meeting.