Standard Chartered economist Talha Nadeem argues that the Middle East conflict increases risks to Türkiye’s inflation and external outlook, prompting a more cautious Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) stance.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $811.1B vs $797.2B

The publication of the Accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) February monetary policy meeting highlights the Governing Council's relative confidence regarding inflation trends, while emphasising that the environment remains marked by uncertainty.

TD Securities economists expect February Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to slow to 60k, with 70k private jobs and a 10k decline in government employment.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, are up 2% to near $76.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Oil price trades firmly but struggles to stabilize above the $76.00 hurdle due to signs of de-escalation in conflicts between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay highlights that the Indian Rupee has weakened as global Oil prices surge, pushing USD/INR above 92.00 for the first time.

United States Challenger Job Cuts fell from previous 108.435K to 48.307K in February

NZD/USD trades lower around 0.5920 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.32% on the day, as the pair remains under pressure from a broadly firmer US Dollar (USd) and shifting expectations around New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook.

ING analysts Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker say Bank of England expectations have shifted notably as markets reassess inflation risks from Middle East tensions.

Mexico Consumer Confidence up to 44.5 in February from previous 44.3

Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a up to 44.4 in February from previous 44

Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi has denied previous reports stating that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the condition that the United States presents a rewarding alternative offer, News18 reported, citing the state-run Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Rabobank’s Head of Macro Strategy Elwin de Groot highlights the European Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act as a major step to rebuild the Eurozone industrial base, accelerate decarbonisation and reduce external dependencies.

Societe Generale analysts say macro data have been overshadowed by Middle East (ME) risks, with investors likely to seek safety in Dollar and Swiss Franc into the weekend absent de‑escalation.

Nomura analysts note that Swedish CPIF and CPIF ex-energy inflation surprised to downside for a fourth month in February, with both measures slightly below levels historically consistent with the 2% target. Goods, especially clothing, drove the miss.

The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps a five-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.

EUR/JPY edges lower around 182.60 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.14% on the day, as the pair remains under pressure while the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical crisis.

Ireland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) down to -3.8% in 4Q from previous -0.3%

Ireland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below forecasts (3.4%) in 4Q: Actual (2.2%)

The EUR/USD pair claws back a majority of its early losses and rises to near 1.1625 during the European trading session on Thursday, but is still marginally down.

The Bank of England (BoE) released the results of its February Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey on Thursday, based on responses from 2,042 Chief Financial Officers of UK firms collected between February 6 and February 20.

European Central Bank (ECB) official and Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn said during European trading hours on Thursday that the war between the United States (US), Iran, and Israel is expected to raise inflation in the near term.

Eurozone Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, surprisingly falls by 0.1% month-on-month (MoM) in January, while it was expected to grow 0.3%. In December, the consumer spending measure rose by 0.2%, revised positive from -0.5%.

France 10-y Bond Auction: 3.39% vs 3.38%

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Brent Oil has stabilised after its strongest two‑day gain since 2020, but remains driven by fast‑moving geopolitical risks.

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.7%) in January: Actual (2%)

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in January

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction down to 1.292% from previous 3.167%

Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.273% to 2.404%

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland cut rates by 25bps to 3.75% despite global volatility, with forecasts showing inflation near target by 2028 and solid growth.