BNY's EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates at 2.25% (February 18) but acknowledges markets are increasingly pricing in tightening as inflation stays stubborn. The bank argues that confirming a shift in direction could help NZD valuations, especially as the currency is relatively underheld. RBNZ can use stronger crosses to limit tradables inflation pressures.

On-hold RBNZ with hawkish tilt

"The RBNZ is expected to remain on hold at 2.25%, but as markets have steadily pivoted toward pricing in tightening while inflation remains stubborn."

"However, affirming a change in direction could help NZD realize richer valuations, though we expect the path to remain volatile given the nature of New Zealand’s policy cycles."

"Overall, the currency is also relatively underheld and could become an enticing position on the crosses, which the RBNZ can in turn encourage to limit gains in tradables inflation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)