Fed's Waller: Inflation on path to 2%, not a barrier to rate cuts
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller spoke about Interest Rates, Inflation & Growth, discussing the US economic outlook in the year ahead. Among other things, Waller noted that he could see a slower path of rate cuts if GDP holds up or the job market speeds up, but added that inflation on its path to 2% is not a barrier to rate cuts.
Key takeaways
Inflation on path to 2%, not a barrier to rate cuts.
The rate outlook after October is dependent on the labour market.
If the job market continues to weaken, the Fed should cut toward a neutral rate.
Rate cuts beyond the October meeting will depend on data.
The neutral interest rate is about 100 to 125 basis points lower than the current Fed Funds Rate.
I see a slower path of rate cuts if GDP holds up or the job market speeds up.
The labor market is sending 'clear warnings’ that the Fed should be ready to act.
Main focus now is on the state of the job market.
Fed's Waller: Tariffs having modest inflation impact, inflation on track for 2%.
A no-hire, no-fire job market is ominous.
Alternative data shows a mixed picture for the job market.
I see conflict between strong economic growth and a weakening job market.
The labor market data contradicts signs of stronger growth.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.26% | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.15% | -0.16% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.17% | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.10% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | 0.17% | 0.39% | 0.24% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.38% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.39% | -0.06% | 0.16% | -0.23% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.24% | 0.06% | 0.17% | -0.15% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.15% | -0.16% | -0.29% | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.26% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.10% | -0.07% | 0.23% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.18% | -0.38% | -0.08% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).