Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen argues that muted market reactions have reduced urgency for central banks to act, even as Middle East conflict risks persist. Policymakers inclined to hike must now persuade colleagues, and Rabobank has shifted its expected timing for an ECB rate increase from April to June, noting low conviction given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Policy urgency fades as conflict drags on

"Still, the muted response in markets has lessened the urgency for central banks to act, as policymakers around the world prepare for their next policy decisions."

"Those policymakers who would prefer to hike will have to convince their peers of the necessity."

"Just a couple of weeks ago, they might have been able to make a strong case for an April hike."

"However, the longer the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, the bigger the stagflationary impact will be."

"We have therefore shifted our call for an ECB hike to June, but conviction remains relatively low amidst the fog of war."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)