Canadian Dollar dives on risk-off markets with US CPI on tap

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Canadian Dollar dives on risk-off markets with US CPI on tap

USD/CAD rallies above 1.3700 and is set to test three-week highs at the 1.3715 area.
Growing geopolitical risks and investors' cautiousness ahead of the US CPI release are boosting the USD.
Higher Oil prices are cushioning the Canadian Dollar's reversal.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) accelerates its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD pair rallying above 1.3700 and set to test its highest levels in nearly a month, at 1.3714. A sour market mood amid saber-rattling in the Middle East and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release are buoying the USD across the board.

Traders are on edge about the possibility of the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, which would complicate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz even further.

US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Tuesday that the ceasefire is on “life support,” and CNN reported comments from the president’s aides suggesting that the resumption of major combat operations is back on the table. CNN also stated that the peace process is unlikely to make significant progress ahead of the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.

Later on the day, April’s US Consumer Price Index is likely to provide some distraction from geopolitics. Consumer inflation is expected to have surged to a 3.7% year-on-year rate, from 3.3% in March, amid the energy shock from Iran’s war. The core CPI is seen advancing at a more moderate pace of 2.7% YoY from 2.6% in March.

The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, is drawing some support from the higher Oil prices, in the absence of key Canadian economic data. Oil is Canada's main export, and the recent jump in Crude prices, with the WTI barrel trading above $98.00, hints at growing trade revenues and is keeping the Loonie from falling further.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.