USD/CNH remains just above this week’s cyclical low near 6.9600 as China’s December trade data exceeded expectations, with both exports and imports showing solid year-on-year growth, BBH FX analysts report.

China posts record 2025 trade surplus of $1.19 trillion

"USD/CNH is holding just above this week’s new cyclical low around 6.9600. China’s December trade data is consistent with encouraging economic activity. The trade surplus totaled a record $1190bn in 2025. Both exports and imports overshot expectation in December at 6.6% y/y (consensus: 3.1%, prior: 5.9%) and 5.7% y/y (consensus: 0.9%, prior: 1.9%), respectively."

"In our view, a continued appreciation in China’s currency could help the country shift its growth model towards consumer spending by boosting disposable income through cheaper imports. Bottom line: USD/CNH downtrend is intact."