BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights U.S. diesel prices breaking above $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, warning of pass‑through to transport and broader inflation and potential political risks into the U.S. midterms.

Energy price shock posing potential political risks

"U.S. diesel prices have surged above $5 per gallon, reaching $5.044. This marks the first time they have exceeded this level since December 2022, driven by supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

"The spike reflects constrained flows of crude, refined fuels, natural gas and fertilizers from the Persian Gulf, with diesel particularly impacted given the region’s refining capacity."

"The increase has already been evident across multiple states and extended to heating oil, which also moved above $5."

"Elevated diesel prices are expected to feed through to transportation, agriculture and construction costs, amplifying broader inflationary pressures and posing potential political risks as the U.S. midterm elections approach."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)