USD/MXN has broken below its recent consolidation after failing to clear the 50-day moving average, bringing the July 2024 low near 17.60 into focus. Although momentum indicators hint at positive divergence, the lack of a clear reversal keeps downside risks intact, with resistance seen near 18.00 and lower targets at 17.30-17.15, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/MXN near key support despite MACD divergence

"USD/MXN struggled to cross the 50‑DMA during its latest rebound attempt and gradually broke below the lower bound of its brief consolidation range. The daily MACD has been posting positive divergence however clear signals of a price reversal have yet to materialize."

"The pair is now approaching the July 2024 low near 17.60. Should a short-term bounce occur, the steeper descending trend line drawn from last April near 18.00 could act as resistance. The next objectives are located at projections of 17.30/17.15."