Societe Generale economists assess how the reformed German debt brake and approved 2025–2026 budgets will lift German fiscal spending and affect the Euro area.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range on Tuesday as traders remain cautious and avoid large directional bets ahead of a heavy week of monetary policy announcements from major central banks.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses Japanese Yen (JPY) dynamics around upcoming G10 central bank meetings and potential Bank of Japan policy shifts. Foley notes Governor Ueda’s hawkish tone, ongoing BoJ tightening expectations despite higher energy costs.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens against the Euro (EUR) on Tuesday, with EUR/CHF edging higher after reversing intraday losses, despite soft Eurozone Economic Sentiment data.

BNP Paribas argues emerging economies face a renewed stagflationary energy shock, but are not generally more vulnerable than in 2022. The bank highlights limited exchange rate depreciation, existing price-mitigation schemes, and stronger reserves.

Private-sector hiring in the US appears to have lost a bit of momentum toward the end of February. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of just 9K jobs per week in the four weeks through February 28.

EUR/JPY trades around 183.25 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, extending its gains for a second consecutive session.

Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note that Canadian GDP contracted 0.6% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q4 2025 but still rose 0.7% year‑over‑year, with weakness driven by inventory drawdowns.

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.4% (March 13) vs 6.2%

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights U.S. diesel prices breaking above $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, warning of pass‑through to transport and broader inflation and potential political risks into the U.S. midterms.

Commerzbank's FX & Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur reports that Chinese Aluminium production has risen nearly 3% year-on-year and is running above the government’s annualized cap, supported by higher Aluminium prices and redirected Alumina flows as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 15.5K to 9K in February 21

Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that Gold has fallen about 5% since the Iran war began, struggling to act as a safe haven as a stronger Dollar and repriced Fed expectations weigh.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $80.50 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal wobbles in a tight range as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been among the best-performing G10 currencies over the past two weeks, helped by steady inflows during the Iran conflict.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7090 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.25% on the day, rebounding after an initial pullback following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar is trading defensively even as Brent holds above $100 and European gas prices stay elevated.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a split 25 bp hike to 4.10%, initially read as dovish and triggering a sell-the-fact move in AUD/USD before a rebound on Governor Bullock’s comments.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.

The EUR/USD pair holds onto Monday’s gains slightly above 1.1500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) has come under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at -0.5 in March. Economists expected the sentiment data to come in lower at 38.7 from 58.3 in February.

Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below expectations (24) in March: Actual (-8.5)

TD Securities analysts note that US rates rallied as markets stabilised, with attention on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical headlines. While hike odds have risen, they pushes back, arguing the hawkish outcome is more likely a prolonged pause.

Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (38.7) in March: Actual (-0.5)

Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -62.9, above forecasts (-67.1) in March

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the RBA delivered a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, now the highest policy rate among G10 central banks, and that Australian Dollar gains versus the US Dollar were initially strong but faded.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 92.90 after a correction on Monday as the Indian Rupee resumes its downside journey amid the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that updated Polish CPI data confirm disinflation, with core inflation at 2.5% year-on-year, in line with the central bank of Poland, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) target.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $80.62 per troy ounce, down 0.40% from the $80.94 it cost on Monday.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Central and Eastern European FX and rates have seen some relief despite elevated energy prices. Regional central banks currently treat the Gulf-related energy spike as a supply shock and prefer to wait, with no case for hikes.