Societe Generale’s United Kingdom (UK) economists highlight political uncertainty around Andy Burnham’s potential Labour leadership challenge and its policy implications, but still expect limited radical change.

BNY’s Bob Savage flags that Euro area Sentix sentiment remains in downturn territory, with Germany still classified in recession despite modest improvement. German manufacturing orders fell sharply in April, driven by autos and machinery, even as sales showed some resilience.

ING’s Chris Turner sees the US Dollar (USD) underpinned by hawkish Federal Reserve repricing and a risk-off tone in equities ahead of key United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that EUR/USD plunged to a three‑month low around 1.1520 after breaking several key supports.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) highlights downside risks for the Pound as UK GDP is expected to contract in Q2 and markets price further Bank of England (BoE) hikes due to second-round inflation effects.

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers some ground on Monday after sliding to its lowest level since March, as traders assess fresh geopolitical developments in the Middle East. However, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to cap the upside.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect May US CPI to show moderating but still-elevated core inflation, with core CPI seen rising 0.23% m/m and 2.8% y/y, while headline CPI is expected to climb to 4.2% y/y.

BNY's Bob Savage reports that Brent and WTI surged around 4–5% as Iran–Israel missile exchanges raised fears of supply disruption and higher global inflation.

DBS Group Research notes that the Reserve Bank of India and government unveiled coordinated steps to attract foreign capital and support India’s external position.

The Euro (EUR) turned positive against the US Dollar (USD) in the daily charts heading into the US session opening on Monday as the EUR/USD bounced to 1.1540 after hitting three-month lows at 1.1499.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5830 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.62% on the day after rebounding from a two-month low touched during the Asian session.

According to Fars News, Iran's armed forces have announced an end to military operations against Israel. However, they have warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. While there has been no confirmation from other media outlets.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that recent US labour data have broken the prior FX range, challenging expectations for a weaker Dollar under President Trump.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades lower against its major currency peers in the European trade on Monday amid caution surrounding the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends losses on Monday to complete a more than 4% depreciation in the last two trading days.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its pause with a 25 bps hike to 2.25% as core and services inflation run above forecasts.

Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Jane Foley report that Canadian Dollar (CAD) net short positions have surged about 36% to their highest level since December 2025.

In the European trading session, United States (US) President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that both Israel and Iran are looking for a ceasefire, through a post on Truth Social, while maintaining the stance that the US blockade on Iranian seaports will remain intact until a final deal with

The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair jumping to near 95.65.

The US Dollar is rallying for the second consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, reaching levels near 0.8000 for the first time in the last two months.

United States (US) President Donald urges Iran and Israel to pause the exchange of attacks, through a post on Truth Social, during the European trading session on Monday.

ING’s Chris Turner expects the Bank of England (BoE) to avoid tightening this year, with only modest rate hikes priced by markets.

EUR/JPY trades around 184.10 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.32% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to benefit from a favorable backdrop driven by expectations of higher interest rates in Japan and renewed warnings from Japanese authorities regarding currency weakness.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay highlights that the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate at 5.25% and signalled a preference to bolster the Rupee via capital inflow measures rather than tightening.

HSBC’s FX Viewpoint highlights that the US Dollar sits at a crossroads, driven by Middle East tensions, US trade policy shifts and the upcoming June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $67.02 per troy ounce, down 1.21% from the $67.84 it cost on Friday.

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that an European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike is widely expected, but guidance on future moves and growth risks will be crucial for EUR/USD.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) expects the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate at 2.25% and maintain two-way optionality, as contained inflation allows an extended pause.

EUR/CAD inches higher after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 1.6070 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross gains some ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles despite higher oil prices.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann flag that AUD/USD posted its second-largest one‑day loss of the year, dropping toward 0.7040. Near term, the pair may test 0.7020, though a sustained break below is seen as unlikely.