Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer argues that weak Euro area PMI data and rising input costs leave the ECB in a policy dilemma.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ declined to $768.9B from previous $771B

S&P Global will release the May flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for most major economies, including the United States (US), on Thursday. These surveys of top private sector executives are seen as an early indicator of the country’s economic health.

HSBC’s Willem Sels highlights that global equities remain supported by robust earnings growth, led by US Technology and Communications, with AI-driven capex and productivity gains at the core.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3440 but warns that a likely downward repricing of the UK swaps curve and a potential further leftward pivot by a Labour government could undermine the Pound.

DBS FX & Credit Strategist Chang Wei Liang writes that USD/JPY is consolidating around 159 as markets remain wary of potential intervention and hesitate to test 160.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 209K for the week ending May 16.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.782M, below expectations (1.79M) in May 8

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -0.4 below forecasts (18) in May

United States Building Permits Change rose from previous -10.8% to 5.8% in April

United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.442M, above forecasts (1.39M) in April

United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.465M, above expectations (1.41M) in April

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average dipped from previous 203.75K to 202.5K in May 15

United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (210K) in May 15: Actual (209K)

United States Housing Starts Change fell from previous 10.8% to -2.8% in April

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a downside bias on Thursday, struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound from seven-week lows as markets digest fresh headlines surrounding the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,507, down nearly 0.80% on the day.

TD Securities analysts note Australia’s April jobs report disappointed, with a 18.6k employment drop and unemployment jumping to 4.5% despite lower participation. They argue this earlier-than-expected rise in unemployment makes a June Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pause almost certain.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that weak French and German PMI data have undermined Eurozone growth expectations and led markets to question how much the European Central Bank (ECB) can still tighten.

OCBC’s FX Strategist Christopher Wong notes the Dollar Index eased as lower UST yields and softer Oil prices reduced safe-haven demand, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes adding no new hawkish impulse.

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in March

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3.1%) in March

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights a strong recovery in the Pound and gilts as UK fiscal and inflation concerns ease. GBP/USD has bounced toward the 200-day moving average, while long gilt yields have fallen sharply.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, is down 0.28% to near 0.7130 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The antipodean faces selling pressure due to risk-off market sentiment and soft Australian employment data for April.

The Euro (EUR) nurses moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, although it remains within the last few days' range, changing hands at 1.1610 at the time of down from session highs at 1.1635.

TD Securities analysts highlight that April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed growing support to drop the easing bias, with many participants and several regional presidents favoring a more neutral stance.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Fatih Birol said during the European trading session on Thursday that oil markets could enter "red zone" in July-August as stockpiles deplete and summer demand firms. Birol added, “My hope is that the Strait of Hormuz will open fully and unconditionally.”

ING’s Francesco Pesole says weak Australian labour data and grim PMIs support a cautious Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stance and dampen expectations for further tightening.

Societe Generale analysts note EUR/USD is lacking clear direction as it trades around its 200‑DMA and approaches an ascending trend line from February 2025. The pair faces resistance near 1.1750/1.1800 and support around 1.1500–1.1390.

Gold (XAU/USD) keeps looking for direction on Thursday, showing marginal losses within the weekly range. Upside attempts remain limited below $4,580, with bears contained above the $4,455 area.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after underperforming for almost two weeks.