ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report LME Aluminium trading near four-year highs as Middle East conflict-driven supply risks support prices. Rising cancelled warrants and accelerating stock withdrawals point to growing physical tightness, particularly at Port Klang.

BNP Paribas highlights that European Union exports to China fell sharply in 2025, while exports to nearby partners such as Türkiye, Morocco, Ukraine and the Balkans increased.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that Brent crude Oil briefly moved back above $100 per barrel after tanker attacks near Iraq and Dubai, reviving stagflation concerns and pressuring bonds and equities.

Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-7.457B (January) vs €-7.798B

Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 2.7% in February

Ireland HICP (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above forecasts (2.4%) in February

Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 0.9% in February from previous -0.9%

Ireland HICP (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (0.7%) in February

South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY): -0.7% (January) vs -1.4%

EUR/GBP rebounds on Thursday, with the Euro (EUR) gaining 0.08% against the Pound Sterling (GBP), hovering around 0.8632 at the time of writing.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep rates on hold, seeing this as a tactical pause rather than a shift in strategy.

ING analysts see markets as overly aggressive on Bank of England expectations, with easing priced out after the Iran conflict. They note EUR/GBP’s negative correlation with Oil and warn that no rate changes are now expected by year-end.

USD/INR moves sideways and stays in the negative territory at the time of writing on Thursday.

Commerzbank’s Rates Strategist Hauke Siemßen argues that recent Oil-driven moves in Euro rates have given way to ECB-driven repricing. Comments from Kazimir and Schnabel have led forwards to discount a first 25 bp ECB rate hike by July, even as Commerzbank still forecasts no hikes this year.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that the Australian Dollar has outperformed in G10 despite the Iran conflict. He attributes AUD strength to Reserve Bank of Australia policy divergence and a firmly hawkish stance.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $86.84 per troy ounce, up 1.28% from the $85.74 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $86.90 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has underperformed since the Middle East conflict, with USD/JPY back near year-to-date highs.

ING’s FX team argues that while Europe is better positioned on gas than in 2022, the Euro remains vulnerable against the Dollar.

Societe Generale expects the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintain a hawkish stance, with effective funding already pushed to 40% via the overnight lending window. The bank notes heavy FX reserve use and liquidity draining to support the Lira and tight conditions.

Gold (XAU/USD) climbs to the top end of its daily trading range during the first half of the European session on Thursday, though it remains below the $5,200 mark.

TD Securities’ James Rossiter argues that major central banks have shifted their reaction functions after recent supply shocks, now placing greater emphasis on inflation and expectations than on growth.

EUR/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.1550 during the European hours on Thursday. Daily chart technical analysis indicates a persistent bearish bias as the pair moves downwards within a descending channel pattern.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan warns the Indian Rupee is vulnerable under a prolonged Iran–Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, with USD/INR potentially rising above 95.

ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski argues that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged at its 19 March meeting but adopt a more hawkish tone as the war in the Middle East and higher Oil prices revive memories of the 2022 energy shock.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee warns that caution is warranted on USD/JPY as the pair trades near the 159–160 resistance zone after Operation Epic Fury. He expects the Bank of Japan to deliver a hawkish hold on March 19, distinguishing temporary supply-led inflation from demand-pull pressures.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25 bps in March and again in May, fully reversing last year’s cuts and taking the cash rate back to 4.35%.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 12:

GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.3380 during the early European hours on Thursday.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team highlights rising geopolitical risks around Iran and Hormuz as Brent Oil trades close to $100.