Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux flags that a surprise upside in Czech inflation to 2.5% has reinforced the Czech National Bank’s hawkish stance. With policymakers signalling a possible hold or hike, attention turns to core and services inflation data that could justify a November rate increase.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight EUR/USD caught between French political-fiscal risks and a potentially capped US Dollar. European bond turbulence is feeding expectations of a more dovish ECB, while US yields rise on economic resilience. Markets still price over three Fed hikes despite softer labour data, but OCBC expects only a moderate USD rally into year-end.

EUR/USD has slipped to fresh 17-month lows near 1.1160, weighed down by escalating political and fiscal uncertainties across the Eurozone.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday due to the continuous surge in global bond yields. The USD/INR pair rises to near 96.43, the highest level seen in over two months.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD traded sideways on Monday, closing slightly lower near 1.3225, with intraday price action lacking clear momentum. They expect near-term range trading to persist.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds its recovery move seen in the early European trade from $60.30 to near $61.00 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets on Tuesday.

Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman highlights that the Dollar has trimmed some recent gains but retains support from strong US data and Fed expectations. September ISM services and manufacturing indexes point to resilient growth, while Prices Paid suggest intensifying inflation.

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday as a modest pullback in US Treasury yields weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the metal recover after falling to a two-month low of $4,104 during Asian trading hours. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,156, up 0.41% on the day.

The Euro (EUR) posts a mild recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD pair trading a few pips below 1.1250 at the time of writing, extending its rebound from the 17-month low, near 1.1160, hit on Monday.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight broad resilience across global equities, led by record-setting US tech stocks and steady gains in Europe.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the Euro remains under selling pressure, with EUR/USD testing support at 1.1200 as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calls an early election for November 29. Opinion polls point to gains for the People’s Party, potentially in coalition with VoX.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $61.14 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.11% from the $61.08 it cost on Monday.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that the Dollar remains supported early in the week, helped by Euro-specific weakness and higher global bond yields, even as strong equities cap gains. The ISM services data were slightly hawkish but not enough to shift expectations for an October Federal Reserve hold.

USD/CAD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4270 during European hours on Tuesday. The pair remains close to freshly reached 18-month highs as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices.

Eurozone Retail Sales rises at a 0.1% pace Month-on-Month (MoM) in August, slower than 0.2% estimates. In July, the Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, declined by 0.6%.

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on its modest intraday bounce from the $4,100 neighborhood, or a two-month low, and climbs above $4,150 during the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD outperformed on Monday, closing near 0.6970 after a modest rebound. Intraday, they see scope for slight gains but expect the pair to stay capped below 0.6985.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3200 mark on Tuesday and hits a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session.

Dow Jones futures gain by 0.47% to trade near 51,800 during European hours on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures advance by 0.24% to trade around 7,840, while Nasdaq 100 futures rise by 0.27% to trade near 31,400.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke notes the Brazilian Real (BRL) strengthened about 4% as USD/BRL fell from 5.2 to 5 on F. Bolsonaro’s election lead. He cautions that despite gains by Partido Liberal and other conservatives, Bolsonaro would still lack outright majorities and remain reliant on alliances.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe Gold as sluggish despite a sharp pullback in October Fed hike expectations, with long-end US Treasury yields resuming their rise and the US Dollar (USD) firm.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding its position after posting modest gains the previous day and hovering around 102.10 after pulling back from nearly 18-month highs during the European hours on Tuesday.

The comments from European Central Bank (ECB) official and Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn released during the European trading session on Tuesday signal economic warnings due to higher long-term interest rates.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has softened after a Bloomberg report on the GPIF’s September meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00.

Francesco Pesole at ING highlights that the Euro (EUR) is under pressure from French bond market turbulence, which is adding a fiscal risk premium and driving a repricing lower in European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations.

USD/IDR remains steady after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 17,930 during the European hours on Tuesday.

USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8320 during European hours on Tuesday. The pair is moving higher as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum, largely driven by a surge in safe-haven demand amidst escalating geopolitical conflicts.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 6:

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CHF as consolidating after failing to extend lower, with Monday’s session confined to a narrow range around 0.8310. Intraday, they expect further sideways trading between nearby support and resistance.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers following the previous day's two-day price moves, trading above the 158.00 mark during the early part of the European session on Tuesday.