Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim argue that the Rupee remains vulnerable to external shocks, notably Middle East tensions, higher energy costs and El Nino-related risks.

TD Securities strategists note that Precious Metals, particularly Gold, are struggling to gain traction as elevated Fed hike probabilities keep real rates high. CTA's (Commodity Trading Advisors) are running a small net short and scenario analysis points to a relatively tight trading band.

USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3990 on Friday, with the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from stronger-than-expected inflation data in the United States (US), while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains weighed down by falling Oil prices and a Bank of Canada (BoC) that is showing little urgency to raise rates

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.

ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey notes that LME copper is trading near record highs, supported by supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-related power demand. The market is already pricing US tariff risk, with the COMEX-LME spread around $400/t.

Canada Capacity Utilization remains unchanged at 78.5% in 1Q

Societe Generale strategists note Mexico still appears steady even as conditions become more challenging. Inflation has cooled to 3.94% in May, while Banxico has signalled an end to its easing cycle, leading markets to price potential hikes.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz argue that Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to deliver an immediate rate cut, given elevated PCE inflation and a still‑solid labor market.

Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates on Friday as traders await further developments on a potential US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading flat around $4,200 after recovering from a nearly seven-month low of $4,023 touched the previous day.

Nomura’s Global FX Strategy team, including Dominic Bunning and Yusuke Miyairi, argues that a more hawkish ECB path versus the Bank of England should support the Euro against the Pound.

Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 0.58%, above expectations (0.53%) in May

The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of June’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

The Euro (EUR) has given away previous daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) and is trading practically flat, at 1.1575 at the time of writing.

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee argue that firmer US inflation and resilient labour markets underpin a higher-for-longer global rates backdrop, supporting the US Dollar.

India Bank Loan Growth climbed from previous 16.2% to 17.7% in May 18

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports that EUR/USD briefly dipped toward 1.1500 after the ECB decision before rebounding on the US-Iran breakthrough. Haddad expects EUR/USD to edge lower and stabilize closer to 1.1400 as US growth outperforms the Eurozone.

India FX Reserves, USD: $681.61B (June 1) vs previous $682.32B

The Indian Rupee (INR) rises sharply higher higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair tumbles to near 95.12 on reports that the United States (US) and Iran will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Geneva on Sunday, resulting in a significant decline in oil prices.

The British Pound (GBP) maintains a moderately positive tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as investors’ optimism about a US-Iran peace deal has offset rather uninspiring UK data.

Societe Generale analysts reports USD/BRL has been rebounding from an interim low near 4.88 and is approaching the 200-DMA and a descending trend line around 5.25. They stress the need to see if a base and trend reversal can form, with resistance at 5.32/5.34 and downside risk if 4.99 fails.

Iran’s IRNA news agency releases the major terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) discussed with the United States (US). Earlier a report from Bloomberg showed that the MoU will be signed in Geneva on Sunday.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich expects Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on 17 June to deliver a more neutral policy stance, with earlier projected rate cuts likely removed from the dot plot and some hike calls appearing.

Deutsche Bank’s European economists highlight that the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% and pairing it with hawkish messaging from President Lagarde.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Friday, trading around $82.90 at the time of writing as investors unwind defensive positions following fresh signs of easing tensions in the Middle East.

India’s Consumer Price Index data for May has come in at an annualized pace of 3.93% in May, slower than 4% estimates, but higher than the previous reading of 3.48%.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto Thursday’s strong recovery move to near $4,220 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal reflects strength amid intensified hopes that the United States (US) and Iran will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by the weekend.

Thursday’s EuropeanSilver (XAG/USD) retraces previous losses on Friday's European session, returning to levels in the mid-range of the $67.00s at the time of writing.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that President Karol Nawrocki has rapidly accumulated a record number of vetoes, blocking key legislation on crypto assets, taxation and healthcare. Ghose expects Nawrocki to continue obstructing reforms until the 2027 elections.

China M2 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 8.6%, above forecasts (8.5%) in May

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the positive shift in US-Iran relations initially weighed on the US Dollar (USD), but he still expects the USD to edge higher near term.