OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong argues that recent risk-on moves following the US‑Iran understanding have only produced a modest pullback in US yields and the Dollar. He highlights AI-driven US growth, Fed event risk and Oil dynamics as supporting USD resilience.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 9.4% in June 12 from previous 9.1%

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% but maintained a clear tightening bias. The Australian central bank emphasized that further rate hikes remain possible if inflation pressures persist.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team notes that USD/JPY is little changed after the latest BoJ meeting, with markets more focused on the upcoming Fed decision and new Fed President Warsh.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) expects USD/CAD to remain broadly range-bound, with recent moves reflecting shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday outlined the next steps in the Iran agreement, saying the deal's text will be released in the coming days and that the Strait of Hormuz should be fully reopened by Friday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains anchored around the critical 160.00 threshold against the US Dollar despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) historic decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.00%. 

United States Import Price Index (YoY): 6.7% (May) vs 4.2%

United States Export Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 8.8% to 11.2% in May

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities above forecasts ($8.16B) in April: Actual ($46.91B)

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities dipped from previous $3.9B to $-11.36B in April

United States Building Permits (MoM) below forecasts (1.42M) in May: Actual (1.413M)

United States Building Permits Change: -0.7% (May) vs previous 5.8%

United States Export Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.2%) in May: Actual (1.3%)

United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.177M, below expectations (1.43M) in May

United States Import Price Index (MoM) registered at 1.9% above expectations (1%) in May

United States Housing Starts Change down to -15.4% in May from previous -2.8%

Private-sector hiring in the US has cooled in late May. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 25.5K jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 30.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average declined to 25.5K in May 23 from previous 29K

Gold (XAU/USD) holds above the $4,300 mark on Tuesday as traders await further details on the peace framework between the United States (US) and Iran. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,340, up 0.70% on the day

Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -1.5% below forecasts (-0.6%) in April

Societe Generale analysts, including Kenneth Broux, note AUD/USD is under pressure after failing to hold its 50‑day moving average and forming a pattern of lower highs and lows.

The US Dollar (USD) posts marginal losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, with bears aiming for a key support area between 0.7900 and 0.7930.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang reports that USD/JPY was little changed around 160.30, with recent price action offering no fresh directional clues.

Societe Generale strategists argue that South African Rand dynamics hinge on upcoming CPI, retail sales and the Federal Reserve meeting.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes USD/PHP as bearish but oversold after a sharp gap lower on softer yields and Oil. With inflation still above target and growth slowing, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) faces a difficult decision, where a firmer policy response could support PHP.

Societe Generale’s Stephen Spratt notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 4.35%, in line with expectations, and characterizes the statement as largely a mark-to-market update.

Demand for Gold by global central banks is anticipated to remain strong this year despite bullion prices rising over 120% in the last two years, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) published on Tuesday shows.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights a muted reaction in USD/JPY to the Bank of Japan’s 25 bps hike to 1.00%, even as JGB yields underperform and the BOJ maintains its tightening bias and JGB tapering roadmap.

Crude Oil depreciates further on Tuesday, as the first details of the US-Iran deal start to emerge and hopes of the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz grow.