Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich now expect the ECB to deliver four consecutive 25 bp rate hikes starting in June, despite recent ceasefire news in the Middle East.

Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, announced on Friday that in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), gave a statement at the fifty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF) on Friday.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that the International Copper Study Group has already shifted its 2026 view to a deficit and is likely to project further tightening into 2027.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Friday in relatively calm market conditions, with the Japanese Yen modestly outperforming the British Pound as growing expectations around a potential US–Iran peace agreement weigh on Oil prices.

USD/JPY falls toward 158.20 at the time of writing, down 0.61% on Friday after hitting a daily high of 159.53 earlier. The pair now faces notable selling pressure as improving geopolitical conditions in the Middle East reduce demand for safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that global markets are consolidating as investors watch whether the US-Iran ceasefire becomes a durable agreement.

The United States (US) and Iran are currently negotiating a draft agreement aimed at ending the conflict, according to a report by Axios. The talks focus on a three-page memorandum of understanding that includes several measures related to Iran’s nuclear program.

ING keeps a mildly bearish profile for USD/CAD into year‑end, driven mainly by expected Dollar weakness once the Federal Reserve resumes cutting in 3Q. Canada’s domestic backdrop is less supportive, with the Bank of Canada worried about upcoming USMCA talks and jobs.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shows marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading around 0.5885 at the time of writing, after pulling back from monthly highs, around 0.5920 earlier this week.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD reversed sharply after nearing 1.3600, with intraday downside now expected to stay within a 1.3495–1.3555 range.

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities up to $25.36B in February from previous $11.39B

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities below expectations ($23.81B) in February: Actual ($6.17B)

Gold (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday as expectations grow around a potential US-Iran peace agreement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,807, up nearly 0.35% on the day, and remains on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 235.9K below forecasts (255K) in March

Nordea analysts Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich argue that higher energy and commodity prices, together with tight labour markets and solid demand, make Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts unlikely.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.15% lower at around 0.7825 during the European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that EUR/USD’s recent advance stalled after repeated failures to break 1.18, as the European Central Bank (ECB) pushes back against expectations for an April rate hike.

India FX Reserves, USD increased to $700.95B in April 6 from previous $697.12B

India Bank Loan Growth rose from previous 13.8% to 16.1% in March 16

Gold’s (XAU/USD) remains practically flat, at $4,790 at the time of writing on Friday, lacking a clear bias after pulling back from one-month highs, at $4,871 earlier this week.

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has told state-run Oil refiners to cut spot US Dollar (USD) purchases and instead tap a special credit line via State Bank of India.

TD Securities reports that United States labor market data surprised slightly on the positive side, with initial jobless claims below expectations and continuing claims near consensus. This reinforces a picture of a still-resilient US economy.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.16% higher to near 0.7175 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets during the European trading session on Friday.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Friday, trading around $79.40 at the time of writing and gaining 1.25% on the day. The Silver price remains close to the $79 mark as investors monitor geopolitical developments and monetary policy expectations in the United States (US).

Deutsche Bank analysts note Brent Oil nearly touched $100/bbl on Thursday before retreating on Friday, as traders reacted to shifting headlines around US–Iran negotiations and regional ceasefires.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the opening of special credit lines for state-run Oil buyers to meet their foreign exchange needs has strengthened the Asian currency.

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said in a program in the United States (US) during the European trading session on Friday that the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the odds of market stresses combining.

The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday's European trading session, as the latter loses ground amid a moderate risk appetite.

The US Dollar (USD) keeps heading south against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Friday, reaching three-week lows at 1.3670.