Derek Halpenny at MUFG argues that PM Takaichi’s focus on defence, economic security and investment-led growth, alongside efforts to move away from supplementary budgets, is supportive of a gradual BoJ policy normalisation.

EUR/GBP extends its range-bound trade on Monday, consolidating recent losses as repeated rejections near the multi-month resistance around 0.8750 continue to cap the upside.

ING’s Deepali Bhargava argues that Asia overall benefits from the US move from reciprocal IEEPA tariffs to a flat Section 122 surcharge.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $86.50 on Monday at the time of writing, up 2.35% on the day, benefiting from a marked resurgence in safe-haven demand.

Deutsche Bank Research economists Robin Winkler and Marc Schattenberg analyse conflicting German business surveys, noting that PMI points to a cyclical expansion while Ifo expectations still imply weakness. They find Ifo’s historical lead over PMI is mainly in manufacturing.

Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (1.6%) in 4Q

Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 4Q

Commerzbank’s Economic Research team, led by Dr. Vincent Stamer, outlines how US trade policy is shifting after the Supreme Court ruling on earlier Trump tariffs. The new 15% global tariff is based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, interacts with MFN duties and sectoral tariffs.

Gold (XAU/USD) jumps to a three-week high on Monday as fresh uncertainty over United States (US) trade policy and escalating tensions between the US and Iran boost safe-haven demand. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $5,150, up nearly 1.0% on the day.

The Pound Sterling faces selling pressure against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday after dovish comments on interest rates from Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor in a fireside chat at Deutsche Bank in London.

Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor said in a fireside chat at Deutsche Bank in London during European trading hours on Monday that the United Kingdom (UK) services inflation has cooled down at a more moderate pace than he hoped.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes NZD/USD is firm just below 0.6000 after stronger-than-expected New Zealand Q4 retail sales volumes, driven by discretionary spending.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team reviews recent US data, noting Q4 GDP growth slowed to 1.4% and was dragged by weaker government spending, while core GDP (PDFP) also lost momentum.

The USD/JPY pair recovers almost its entire early losses and trades marginally lower to near 154.85 during the European trading session on Monday.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7080 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.05% on the day, after briefly rising above the 0.7100 level during the Asian session.

The US Dollar (USD) claws back half of its early losses after gaining a temporary ground near 97.40 during the European trading session on Monday. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% lower to near 97.60.

HSBC Asset Management highlights that recent US Treasury moves look counterintuitive, with stronger US data but lower 10-year yields near the bottom of their 12‑month range. The bank links this to stress in risk assets and renewed demand for havens.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong argues that sticky UK inflation and firmer activity data have limited dovish repricing of the Bank of England and cushioned the Pound. However, the 26 February by-election is seen keeping GBP volatility elevated in the near term.

The Indian Rupee (INR) gives back early gains and turns lower against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon trading hours in India on Monday. The USD/INRedges up to near 91.00, despite the US Dollar (USD) remaining under pressure.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil, specifically ICE Brent, rallied strongly last week on rising geopolitical risks around potential US action in Iran, but is trading softer as further US-Iran talks are scheduled.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $86.40 per troy ounce, up 2.22% from the $84.52 it cost on Friday.

Dow Jones futures fall 0.43% to around 49,450 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 0.58% and 0.74%, respectively, trading near 6,880 and 24,880 at the time of writing.

The EUR/USD pair trims a part of its intraday gains, though it manages to hold above the 1.1800 mark through the first half of the European session on Monday and moves little following the release of the IFO institute's business survey for February.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that January’s sharp rise in super-long JGB yields attracted strong foreign demand, helping cap yields and easing market instability concerns.

German IFO Institute's Business Climate Index improves to 88.6 in February, beating estimates of 88.4 and 87.6 in January.

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1%) in January

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.4%) in January

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (1%) in January

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-1%) in January

Germany IFO – Expectations meets expectations (90.5) in February