Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights that three months into the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, implying a persistent energy price shock even if a US–Iran deal is reached soon. He underlines that this comes on top of a recent US tariff shock and uses scenario analysis to gauge the impact on Swiss industry output prices and competitiveness.

Energy shock weighs on Swiss sectors

"Three months after the start of the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed."

"Even if a deal were to be reached between the US and Iran in the coming days, the price shock is likely to persist for some time."

"With the US tariff shock having only recently weighed on the real economy, the higher energy prices come at an inopportune time for Switzerland."

"Using various scenarios, we quantify the effect on the output prices of key Swiss industries and analyze how the situation might develop relative to their competitors."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)