Nordea’s Torbjörn Isaksson reports that Swedish CPIF and CPIF ex energy were confirmed at low year-on-year levels, with seasonally adjusted core measures well below the 2% target. Despite a bounce in core services inflation, overall pressures remain subdued. Nordea expects core inflation to fall further and the Riksbank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% next week.

Soft CPIF data support steady Riksbank policy

"All in all, February inflation came out well in line with our forecast."

"Inflationary pressures are low and we expect core inflation to drop further in the coming months."

"The war in the Middle East and the rising energy prices will add around 0.5% point to headline CPIF inflation in the near term."

"Thus, so far the direct effects are not drastic and the upturn is from a low starting point."

"However, the uncertainty is significant. We expect the Riksbank to take a wait-and-see stance next week and keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, but emphasise that they stand ready to take action if necessary."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)