Russia’s top Palladium producer expects a notable supply deficit for Platinum in 2025, while Palladium remains mostly balanced, highlighting diverging market views compared with the World Platinum Investment Council’s forecasts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Palladium market balanced this year

"Russia's largest Palladium producer yesterday published updated forecasts for the Platinum and Palladium market balances. According to these forecasts, the Platinum market is expected to show a supply deficit of 300,000 ounces this year, excluding investment demand. Including investment demand, the deficit is expected to amount to 400,000 ounces."

"For Palladium, the company expects a balanced market without investment demand and a deficit of 200,000 ounces including this component. For the coming year, the company only published forecasts without investment demand. The market balance for Platinum is expected to be roughly the same as this year, and the Palladium market is expected to show a deficit of 100,000 ounces."

"By way of comparison, the World Platinum Investment Council predicted in its November report that the Platinum market is likely to be almost balanced next year, including investment demand. Without investor demand, which the WPIC classifies as including bar and coin purchases, ETFs and changes in exchange-registered inventories, the Platinum market would actually be oversupplied by around 380,000 ounces. This does not provide any grounds for a further price increase."