Gold finds support amid trade thaw hopes, prolonged US shutdown and global tensions
- Gold regains footing after Friday’s steep selloff, as geopolitical and economic concerns continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in Malaysia this week to resume trade discussions after last week’s flare-up.
- Markets eye key CPI and PMI data on Friday while Fed officials remain in blackout period before the October 29-30 FOMC meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday, recovering part of Friday’s selloff from record highs around $4,380. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,313 during the American session, up nearly 1.50% on the day.
The yellow metal saw its largest intraday drop since mid-May on Friday, sliding 1.76% as investors locked in profits following remarks from US President Donald Trump, who struck a softer tone on China. Trump said the US is “going to do fine with China,” adding that the threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports “aren’t sustainable,” which helped calm market nerves and triggered a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields.
While the easing of trade tensions brought some short-term relief, traders remain cautious as Trump’s unpredictable trade rhetoric continues to fuel global uncertainty. The absence of follow-through selling on Monday suggests that Gold’s retreat was more of a corrective pause than the start of a deeper reversal, as investors reassess the broader macro backdrop.
The metal continues to draw support from a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, the prolonged United States (US) government shutdown, and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty. These factors, combined with steady central bank demand and strong inflows into Gold-backed ETFs, keep the broader uptrend intact.
Market movers: Markets eye US-China talks and CPI data amid prolonged government shutdown
- President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is “not looking to hurt China” but outlined key US demands ahead of this week’s trade talks, including higher Chinese purchases of soybeans, the removal of rare-earth export curbs and tighter controls on fentanyl.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in Malaysia this week to restart dialogue after last week’s trade flare-up.
- According to a Reuters report, global companies estimate they have absorbed more than $35 billion in costs from US tariffs. A Reuters analysis of hundreds of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30 shows firms expect a combined financial hit of $21-22.9 billion in 2025 and nearly $15 billion in 2026.
- Renewed clashes broke out early Monday in the Gaza Strip after Israel launched airstrikes in response to alleged overnight ceasefire violations by Hamas, ending a brief period of calm and reigniting fears of a wider regional escalation.
- The ongoing US government shutdown has entered its twentieth day, with no resolution yet after the Senate’s repeated failures to approve a temporary funding measure, the latest of which marked the tenth unsuccessful attempt to end the stalemate. Lawmakers are expected to vote again on Monday when the Senate returns to session.
- The US economic docket is light this week, with focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday, which was postponed earlier because of the government shutdown. Friday will also bring the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings for October. Fed officials are now in their pre-meeting blackout period ahead of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting scheduled for October 29-30.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD steadies above $4,250 amid renewed buying interest
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XAU/USD) steadies after Friday’s sharp pullback from record highs, suggesting a potential short-term peak near the all-time high around $4,380. On the 4-hour chart, spot prices are hovering above the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,256.
Immediate support is seen near $4,200, where dip-buying interest continues to emerge. A sustained move below this level could expose the 50-period SMA near $4,140. On the upside, $4,300 remains the immediate resistance, and a break above it could open the way for a retest of the all-time high.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding around 57, recovering after retreating from overbought territory. As long as the RSI stays above 50, the setup favors a healthy consolidation phase rather than a deeper correction, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.