EUR/USD tests mid-term highs ahead of US employment, consumption data
- EUR/USD is trading higher on Tuesday, testing highs at the 1.1765 area.
- The Euro has shrugged off the negative impact from weak Eurozone PMI data
- Technically, the EUR/USD rally starts giving signs of exhaustion.
EUR/USD is testing two-and-a-half-month highs, at the 1.1765, ahead of Tuesday's US session opening. The pair has shrugged off the negative impact of weaker-than-expected preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) and resumed its broader bullish trend ahead of key US labour market reports.
Services activity in the Eurozone slowed down to a 52.6 level, as measured by the PMI, a whole point below November's 53.6 reading and against market expectations of an improvement to 53.9. Likewise, manufacturing activity has accelerated its contraction to 49.2 from 49.6 in November. The market consensus had anticipated a slight improvement to 49.2.
German PMIs have shown a similar trend, with the Manufacturing PMI falling to 47.7 from 48.2 in the previous month and Services activity easing, slowing down to 52.6 from 53.1 in November. In France, Services PMI fell to 50.2 from 51.4 in the previous month, while manufacturing activity expanded against expectations, to 50.6 in December. from 47.8 in November
During the US market session, the focus will be on the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls reports for October and November. These figures are expected to provide further insight into the momentum of the US labour market, although the lack of key data, which was not collected during the government shutdown, will deprive traders of the full picture.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.41% | -0.34% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.27% | -0.20% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.19% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.41% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | 0.34% | 0.20% | -0.06% | 0.32% | 0.43% | 0.38% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.12% | -0.40% | -0.32% | 0.10% | 0.07% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.50% | -0.43% | -0.10% | -0.04% | -0.31% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.19% | -0.46% | -0.38% | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.08% | -0.19% | -0.12% | 0.20% | 0.31% | 0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: The US Dollar remains depressed ahead of US employment data
- The Euro (EUR) remains supported near recent highs as investors continue to bet on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep rates on hold at Thursday's meeting, and might even hint at a rate hike in the second half of 2026.
- Data from the US released on Monday failed to support the US Dollar. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -3.9 in December, below the 10.6 reading forecasted by the market and also below November's 18.7 reading.
- In the Eurozone, on the other hand, Industrial Production data beat expectations with a 0.8% growth in October, from 0.2% in September, and market forecasts of a mere 0.1% advance. Year-on-year, industrial production increased 2%, from the 1.2% growth seen in September.
- Beyond that, negotiations for a peace deal in Ukraine continue. US offered NATO-style security guarantees to Kiev after US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's meeting in Berlin, which has provided some support to the Euro.
- In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls data are expected to show a 50K net increase in payrolls in November, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%. October's payroll figures will also be out, although the jobless rate will not be released due to a lack of data.
- At the same time, the US Commerce Department will release October's Retail Sales, which are expected to have grown 0.1%, down from 0.2% in September. Excluding automobiles, US retail consumption is expected to have increased 0.3%, at the same pace as in September.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD rally starts to give signs of exhaustion
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend intact, but Monday's upside attempts failed to confirm above last week's high at 1.1763, and technical indicators are pointing to a weakening momentum. The. 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a bearish divergence, although still at levels within bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has recently crossed below the signal line, hinting at a deeper correction.
Immediate support is at the December 12 low, near 1.1720. Below that, the December 11 low at the 1.1685 area, and the December 9 low at 1.1615 will emerge as the next bearish targets. To the upside, the 1.1760-1.1770 area has capped bulls on December 11 and 15, ahead of the October 1 peak at around 1.1780. The pair has a significant resistance area here, which should be cleared to shift the focus towards the September 23 and 24 highs near 1.1820.
(This story was updated on December 16 at 11:10 GMT to reflect a last-minute consensus change in Nonfarm Payrolls for November to 50K.)
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 119K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous: 0.2%
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.