EUR/USD Price Forecast: Posts fresh monthly high around 1.1700
- EUR/USD rallies to near 1.1700 as the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand diminishes.
- US President Trump suspends scheduled attacks on Iran as it agrees to reopen the Hormuz.
- Eurozone Retail Sales declines 0.2% MoM in February, in line with expectations.
The EUR/USD pair trades 0.75% higher to near 1.1700 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms amid an upbeat market mood.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.75% | -1.04% | -0.78% | -0.16% | -0.97% | -1.51% | -1.16% | |
| EUR | 0.75% | -0.30% | -0.04% | 0.60% | -0.23% | -0.80% | -0.43% | |
| GBP | 1.04% | 0.30% | 0.26% | 0.89% | 0.09% | -0.48% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.78% | 0.04% | -0.26% | 0.61% | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.60% | -0.89% | -0.61% | -0.78% | -1.33% | -1.00% | |
| AUD | 0.97% | 0.23% | -0.09% | 0.17% | 0.78% | -0.56% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | 1.51% | 0.80% | 0.48% | 0.73% | 1.33% | 0.56% | 0.34% | |
| CHF | 1.16% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.39% | 1.00% | 0.23% | -0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures are up over 2.5% to near 6,780, reflecting a strong risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.7% lower to near 98.80.
Market sentiment turns favorable for risk-sensitive assets on a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump announced that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure as Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
On the macro front, Eurozone Retail Sales data contracts 0.2% Month-on-Month (MoM) in February, following the 0% (upwardly revised from -0.1%) recorded in January.
Going forward, investors will focus on negotiations between the US and Iran over the 10-point proposal shared by Tehran for the complete ceasefire.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades sharply higher at around 1.1700 during the press time. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends above the descending support trend line of the Symmetrical Triangle formation from 1.1403 and holds over the 200-day exponential moving average clustered around 1.1560, indicating buyers control the pullbacks for now.
The latest RSI reading at 57 shows positive momentum without overbought conditions, reinforcing the upside tilt after the recovery from the mid-1.14s.
Initial support emerges at the trend-line area near 1.1600, with the 200-day EMA just beneath reinforcing this zone; a break below would expose the 1.1550 region as the next downside level. On the topside, the intraday high of 1.1708 is the immediate resistance, followed by the March high at around 1.1800, where a sustained break would confirm continuation of the nascent upswing.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on April 8 at 13:00 GMT to say that Eurozone Retail Sales were 0% in January (upwardly revised from -0.1%).)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.