语言    
外汇 贵金属 商品差价合约 差价合约的清算 差价合约明细
MT4 专业版 MT4 MT4移动版 模拟账户申请
综合性交易商 IB 代理商 多账户管理的资金经理人 合作请求
帮助 常见问题解答 VPS 联系请求
外汇是什么? 什么是CFDs差价合约? 什么是日内交易? 外汇模拟账户 MT4平台 MT4 移动平台 贵金属交易 ECN 平台商 外汇图表
概览 法律监管 资金安全 出入金

News

EUR/USD is trading in a weak bear trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs). Additionally, the spot is also breaking to the downside from a bull chann
  • EUR/USD remains under selling pressure below the 1.1063 resistance.
  • The level to beat for bears is the 1.1035 support. 
 

EUR/USD daily chart 

 
EUR/USD is trading in a weak bear trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs). Additionally, the spot is also breaking to the downside from a bull channel which started in October 2019. The bull flag from December 2019 failed as bears took over. EUR/USD formed a head-and-shoulders pattern which is weighing on EUR/USD.
 

EUR/USD four-hour chart

 
The spot is trading in a down channel below its main SMAs. The spot is rebounding from the 1.1035 support; however, if the bears break below this level, the euro, in the next sessions, can continue to decline towards the 1.1000 and 1.0971 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. 
  

Additional key levels 

 

With the upbeat surprise from New Zealand?s fourth quarter (Q4) CPI pleasing New Zealand dollar buyers, AUD/NZD dropped to the fresh two-week low of 1
  • AUD/NZD drops to the fresh two-week low after New Zealand’s Q4 CPI beat estimates to the upside.
  • The upward sloping trend lines since August 2019 and the one connecting lows marked from March 2019 will restrict further declines.
  • 50-day SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will keep the near-term upside limited.

With the upbeat surprise from New Zealand’s fourth quarter (Q4) CPI pleasing New Zealand dollar buyers, AUD/NZD dropped to the fresh two-week low of 1.0337 after the data. The pair currently takes rounds to 1.0350 by the press time of early Asian morning on Friday.

As a result, the pair nears an ascending trend line stretched from August 2019, at 1.0315 now, as well as another support line connecting lows marked from March 2019, at 1.0295.

While the strength of the support lines is likely to restrict AUD/NZD declines below 1.0295, bears can target 1.0260 and 1.0220 during the declines post trend lines’ breaks.

On the upside, 1.0400 and 1.0430 can offer immediate resistance to the pair ahead of a 50-day SMA level near 1.0450.

However, pair’s upside beyond 1.0450 my find it difficult to cross 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-November 2019 upside, at 1.0480.

AUD/NZD daily chart

Trend: Bearish

 

Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, above forecasts (49) in January
Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI fell from previous 49.6 to 48.6 in January
Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI came in at 48.9, below expectations (49.5) in January
New Zealand fourth-quarter (Q4) Consumer Price Index has been released. Consumer Price Q4 Index NZ Q4 Consumer Price Index Non-Tradables +3.1 pct vs

New Zealand fourth-quarter (Q4) Consumer Price Index has been released.

Consumer Price Q4 Index

NZ Q4 Consumer Price Index Non-Tradables +3.1 pct vs yr ago.
NZ Q4 Consumer Price Index +1.9 pct vs year ago (Reuters poll +1.8 pct), vs 1.5% prior. 
New Zealand Q4 Consumer Price Index +0.5 pct vs pvs Q( Reuters poll +0.4 pct), vs 0.7% prior. 
NZ Q4 consumer price index non-tradables +0.6 pct vs pvs Q.

Ahead of the data, analysts at ANZ bank explained that the key piece of information will be the non-tradable print. 

Price analysis, before and after

Before: Price Analysis NZD/USD: CPI coming up, bulls look to 50% mean reversion, bears, 61.8% Fibo

After:  NZD/USD has rallied on the better than expected data. The move has been surprisingly subdued, so far, with the QoQ below the prior reading, but the data reveals a likely positive for the bird going forward overall as markets will reduce pricing of an imminent rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The inflation data was higher than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) forecast a 0.2% rise in quarterly CPI. See below for the full story on NZD/USD and a 50% man reversion could be on the cards

Description

Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

NZD/USD implications

NZD/USD nears the weekly high of 0.6625 after New Zealand’s upbeat CPI

NZD: neutral RBNZ not a catalyst for more strength

Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that they have shifted our call on the overnight cash rate (OCR), removing the forecast cut for May, citing: better forward activity indicators, the promise of more fiscal spending and inflation sitting close to target.

  •  "To reflect this more patient RBNZ setting, we are revising up our NZD forecasts, although we retain our downside bias through the end of 2020.
  • We think recent strength in the NZD reflects a correction in confidence, rather than a signal of sustained improvement in New Zealand’s economy.
  • Volatility around the US election and renewed concerns over global growth are likely to be catalysts for weakness later in the year."

NZD/USD pops near the weekly high of 0.6625, before stepping back to 0.6620, after New Zealand?s fourth quarter (Q4) CPI data pleased kiwi buyers duri
  • NZD/USD extends the recovery gains as New Zealand’s Q4 CPI beat estimates.
  • Market’s fear concerning China’s coronavirus, the trade war between the US and the EU and/or the US and the UK seem to cap the rally.
  • Trade headlines, preliminary Markit PMIs will be in focus.

NZD/USD pops near the weekly high of 0.6625, before stepping back to 0.6620, after New Zealand’s fourth quarter (Q4) CPI data pleased kiwi buyers during the early Friday.

New Zealand’s Q4 CPI came in well near the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) expectations while flashing better than 0.4% QoQ reading to 0.5% as well as higher than the yearly forecast of 1.8% to 1.9%.

Read: Breaking: New Zealand Q4 CPI: YoY1.9% / QoQ 0.5% (NZD bullish)

Chinese outbreak of coronavirus has been hitting the headlines off-late. The humanly transmitted virus so far took 17 lives so far and has confirmed traces outside the dragon nation. Even if the World Health Organization (WHO) stepped back from terming it as an international emergency and the Chinese authorities are all over it, while also forgetting the Lunar New Year, it becomes a key threat to the global economy considering its impact on tourism and industrial production.

Also weighing on the trading sentiment is the US threats to the EU and the UK relating to levying tariffs. Given the EU constitutes a major chunk of the American exports (nearly 20%), the region’s sturdy response to the likely trade battle worries the market watchers.

Risk-tone has been heavy off-late, amid fears emanating from China, which in turn drag the US 10-year treasury yields down by four basis points (bps) to 1.73% by the end of Thursday’s trading. However, S&P 500 Futures seem to portray Wall Street’s mildly positive performance as flashing 0.17% gains to 3,325 by the press time.

Although headlines concerning trade and China’s coronavirus will be the key to watch for near-term trade direction, preliminary readings of Markit PMIs will also entertain momentum traders during the day.

Technical Analysis

While pair’s recovery after Wednesday’s Doji signals further upside towards 21-day SMA near 0.6655, a sustained downside below December 18 low of 0.6580 highlights a 200-day SMA level near 0.6510 as the key support.

 

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.4%) in 4Q
New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in 4Q: Actual (1.9%)
The main event is NZ Q4 CPI data at 10:45am - Market is sitting at 0.4% q/q. "More broadly, the starting point inflation picture has improved and the

The main event is NZ Q4 CPI data at 10:45am - Market is sitting at 0.4% q/q. "More broadly, the starting point inflation picture has improved and the outlook is looking more assured.  

Let's take a look at possible outcomes for the price action just ahead of the event for both NZD/USD.

NZD/USD daily chart

The upside holds a tough confluence of 23.6% and 50% Fibo at 0.6680. "A print within the range of market expectations is consistent with a patient RBNZ and out updated call for a flat OCR for some time from here," analysts at ANZ Bank explained, which would bring this level into focus, so long as bulls can 'blow the doors off' through 0.6640. A miss in expectations or a  disappointment within the report will open prospects for a test to the 61,8% Fibo at 0.6550 – A surprise will open up the 200-day moving average and 78.6% confluence around the 0.6500 round number guarding a full retracement back to the 0.6420s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD/JPY trades modestly changed to 74.93 at the start of Friday?s Asian session.
  • AUD/JPY sellers catch a breath after ruling for five days in a row.
  • Prices recently bounced off two-week low, stay below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
  • An ascending trend line from October offers strong support.

AUD/JPY trades modestly changed to 74.93 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The pair recently dropped to the lowest in two-weeks but 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December 2019 rise confined further declines.

With this, the quote may witness some pullback towards 75.00 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 75.40. However, a 21-day SMA level of 75.55 can cap the recovery afterward.

If AUD/JPY prices rally beyond 75.55, the monthly top near 76.30 will be on the bulls’ radar.

Meanwhile, a downside break of 74.70/60 support confluence, comprising 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, can drag the pair to a multi-month-old rising support line and 50% Fibonacci retracement, around 74.15/10 now.

In a case where the bears dominate below 74.10, odds of the pair’s revisit to the monthly low near 73.75 can’t be ruled out.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

 

Friday?s Asian session begins with the quarterly release of New Zealand CPI at 21:45 GMT. Considering the central bank's bearish bias, today?s Q4 2019

Friday’s Asian session begins with the quarterly release of New Zealand CPI at 21:45 GMT. Considering the central bank's bearish bias, today’s Q4 2019 consumer price index (CPI) continues to be the key catalyst for the NZD/USD pair. Market consensus favors an increase to 1.8% from 1.5% in the YoY number versus a decline in QoQ figure to 0.4% from 0.7%.

Analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Bank (ANZ) anticipate further inaction from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ):

“We expect a headline print of 0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y), with a small tick up in tradable inflation. But for us, the key piece of information will be the non-tradable print. We expect a solid 0.7% q/q lift (stable at 3.2% y/y). An outturn in line with our expectation would be above the RBNZ’s forecast for a 0.6% q/q rise, with domestic pricing pressures continuing their gradual ascent and in a comfortable position for the inflation target. More broadly, the starting point inflation picture has improved and the outlook is looking more assured. A print within the range of market expectations is consistent with a patient RBNZ and out updated call for a flat OCR for some time from here.”

How could the data affect NZD/USD?

Considering the latest New Zealand GDP figures and the RBNZ’s not so bearish bias, not to forget improvement in second-tier data, any improvement in the headline inflation numbers will provide a positive impact on the Kiwi pair. Even so, the present risk-off sentiment, which supports the US dollar, might cap the NZD/USD pair’s gains unless the CPI rise dramatically that is less expected. All in all, today’s data is likely to keep the RBNZ its “wait and watch” mode unless providing any extreme figures.

On a technical side, prices need to break the range between 21 and 200-day SMA, near 0.6655 and 0.6510 respectively, in order to register major movement. While an upside break can quickly challenge the monthly high near 0.6760, November top surrounding 0.6470 can please the bears during the downside break below the 200-day SMA.

Key Notes

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi under bearish pressure near 2020 lows

NZD/USD remains stuck in tight range below 0.6600 ahead of NZ inflation data

About NZ CPI

Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

More to come...after NZD CPI
  • US stocks were pulling themselves out of the doldrums on Thursday.
  • Nasdaq Composite was edging to a record close.

Benchmark closing prices

  • The Nasdaq COMP, +0.20% closed higehr by 19 points, or 0.2%, to end near 9,402, beating its previous 17 Jan record finish of 9,388.94.
  • The S&P 500 SPX added around 4 points, or 0.1%, to end near 3,326.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average, or DJIA, was the laggard, ending around 26 points lower near 29,160, a loss of 0.1%.

 

More to come...after NZD CPI

Read: When is NZ CPI and how might it affect NZD/USD?

Analysts at ANZ bank noted that it has been risk-off prevailing overnight on concerns about coronavirus, which has claimed 17 lives, with more than 60

Analysts at ANZ bank noted that it has been risk-off prevailing overnight on concerns about coronavirus, which has claimed 17 lives, with more than 600 confirmed cases in China, and confirmed cases in a range of other countries.

Key notes

"Efforts are being made to contain the virus and its devastating impact (with fears that it could be like SARS in 2003). The outbreak will have directly hit tourism, retail and related sectors in China, with risks to industrial production."

"US trade developments added to the risk-off tone, while it was a quiet day for data (with markets awaiting PMI data for the US, UK and euro area)."

"The US 10-year yield was 4.7bps lower at 1.722%. Bund yields were 4.8bps lower at 30.8 bps. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%; DAX and FTSE were down 0.9%. WTI fell 3.1% to USD55.0/bbl on virus-related demand concerns. Gold was up 0.6%."
 

The US stock index is trading in a bullish channel above the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs). The path of least resistance is to the upside and if bul
  • The uptrend remains intact within the bullish channel. 
  • The level to beat for bulls is the 3350 resistance.
 

S&P500 daily chart

 
The US stock index is trading in a bullish channel above the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs). The path of least resistance is to the upside and if bulls break the 3350 resistance the market is likely to keep its bullish run trading towards the 3400 and 3450 levels. Retracements down could find potential support near the 3300 and 3250 price levels. 
 
 

Additional key levels 

 

The price of a barrel of oil was a lot cheaper on Thursday, as markets flipped heavily risk-off as the spread of coronavirus gripped the markets atten
  • West Texas Intermediate oil is trading -1% at the time of writing, correcting form shake-out lows. 
  • TDS analysts continue to expect follow-through selling in the complex.

The price of a barrel of oil was a lot cheaper on Thursday, as markets flipped heavily risk-off as the spread of coronavirus gripped the markets attention, popularised by the media which has little else to report on at this stage, following the recent signing of the US/Sino trade deal and an impeachment trial which markets are showing little interest in. 

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate oil is trading at $55.49,-1%, but well off the lowest point of the day down at $54.79 having fallen from $56.25 as the late Asia high. During the US session, there was a headline doing the rounds, quoting a statement made by the World Health Organisation indicating that it is still too early to declare coronavirus as a public health emergency. More on that here.

Energy market shake-out

Analysts at TD Securities explained that "there is perhaps no clearer sign that we are in a world awash with oil than the price action across the complex in the aftermath of the de-escalation of US-Iranian tensions, and Libyan crisis, which catalyzed a massive positioning shakeout."

The analysts continue to expect follow-through selling in the complex, as trend followers further sap liquidity from the market, selling their length and adding shorts.

"Indeed, we expect a massive selling program to take place in gasoline and WTI crude, along with moderate CTA liquidations in Brent crude, as systematic trend followers attempt to capitalize on the downtrend in the energy complex."

WTI levels

 

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) above forecasts ($2018M) in December: Actual ($2241M)
The Fed is to hold an open meeting on Volcker Rule on 30th January. The Volcker Rule is a federal regulation that generally prohibits banks from condu
  • The Federal Reserve will hold an open meeting on Volcker Rule on 30th January.
  • The Volcker rule is a federal regulation that generally prohibits banks from conducting certain investment activities.

The Fed is to hold an open meeting on Volcker Rule on 30th January. The Volcker Rule is a federal regulation that generally prohibits banks from conducting certain investment activities with their own accounts and limits their dealings with hedge funds and private equity funds, also called covered funds.

What is the Volcker Rule?

It is a rule that aims to protect bank customers by preventing banks from making certain types of speculative investments that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

In August of 2019, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency voted to amend the Volcker Rule in an attempt to clarify what securities trading was and was not allowed by banks.  The revised rules offer regulatory relief, however, especially for smaller banks. Banks with “significant” trading assets, were still subject to the toughest Volcker Rule requirements, but the threshold for what is considered significant will be raised to $20 billion from $10 billion. Until now, the Trump administration’s regulatory agenda has delivered more benefits for mid-size and smaller banks while there have been fewer regulatory changes for the largest banks.

In October last year, the US Federal Reserve has approved a final rule simplifying the Volcker Rule ban on proprietary trading, becoming the fifth and final regulator to sign off on the changes. The simpler version – labelled Volcker 2.0 – went live on 1 January 2020, with banks being given a year to comply.

“Under the revised rule, firms that do not have significant trading activities will have simplified and streamlined compliance requirements, while firms with significant trading activity will have more stringent compliance requirements,” the Fed wrote in a statement.

“Community banks generally are exempt from the Volcker rule by statute,” it continues. “The revisions continue to prohibit proprietary trading, while providing greater clarity and certainty for activities allowed under the law.”

Market implications

US President Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of the Volcker Rule and the Dodd-Frank Act. Trump has argued that the rules are too restrictive on banking activities, and made loosening the rules a high priority since he took office. Most of the board at the Fed have been nominated by Trump, bar Lael Brainard, so it will be interesting to see what comes of such meetings over time. Wall Street certainly would prefer looser restrictions. 

Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 24th: Continued concerns about the coronavirus spreading beyond China maintain financial markets in r

Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 24th:

  • Continued concerns about the coronavirus spreading beyond China maintain financial markets in risk-off mode. The dollar benefited from the negative sentiment, particularly against high-yielding assets. Save-havens, on the other hand, were sharply up.
  • The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh 2020 low of 1.1035, weighed by risk aversion and the ECB Monetary Policy´s outcome. President Lagarde announced a strategic review on inflation policy, the first in over two decades, meant to determine whether the current definition of price stability is still appropriate.
  • GBP/USD eased on the back of the dollar’s strength but held above 1.3100. Brexit meant to happen by month-end, focus on the future relationship between the two economies.
  • Australian employment data gave the Aussie a limited boost at the beginning of the day, but risk-off and discouraging employment sub-components sent it down against the USD.
  • Crude oil prices edged lower, amid fears the OPEC+ won’t extend cuts. Prices recovered some ground after the EIA report showed a decline in US stockpiles.
  • Gold surged toward 1,570, ending the day with gains, although still within familiar levels.
  • Cryptocurrencies continued to retreat, BTC/USD closed at 8,330.
USD/JPY has tumbled to print fresh lows since failing on the 110 handle, scoring 109.26 and meeting the 200-moving average on the four-hour chart. At
  • USD/JPY fell in a risk-off environment, the trigger was the coronavirus.
  • There was little merit for USD/JPY to be on the 110 handle, and 109.20s have now been marked. 

USD/JPY has tumbled to print fresh lows since failing on the 110 handle, scoring 109.26 and meeting the 200-moving average on the four-hour chart. At the time of writing, the price is resting in the 109.40s having travelled from a high of 109.86 on the day. 

The markets are risk-off, but the pair were struggling for too long in the 110s while US-JP spreads were also favouring a correction. The latest news, however, over the coronavirus, could be something to support prices within the 109 handle for longer considering that the World Health Organisation has just announced that it is too early to declare it as a public health emergency. 

Meanwhile, with a focus in US stocks and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting around the corner, the US dollar will now be the likely driver. That said this doesn't give much scope for an uberly bullish US dollar. 

Fed in focus

Markets are certain of one thing, that the funds rate will be left unchanged considering how early on it is in the year and so soon following the Chinese/Sino trade deal without seeing what affect the December announcements of a deal have had on US businesses and sentiment, directly affecting the US economy and inflationary prospects. Therefore, the statement is also likely to be unchanged, or if there are any tweaks the should be minor. 

"Policy will likely still described as "appropriate" but with officials also still in "monitor[ing]" mode, consistent with an easing bias,"

analysts at TD Securities explained. 

On a bearish note, the analysts at TD Securities argued that the Fed meeting should still leave the USD the best of a bad lot but within tolerable ranges:

  • "EURUSD lacks a directional macro impulse to offset negative carry dynamics. Tactically, we remain comfortable with our USDCAD long and bias for USDJPY to correct lower as its move to 110 was without merit."
  • "We expect little market reaction to a Fed message of data dependence, but the market should continue to price in at least one rate cut in 2020 due to asymmetric risks."

USD/JPY levels

  • USD/JPY Forecast: Bearish correction set to continue

 

Making the announcement on Twitter, The World Health Organization (the WHO), said it is ?too early to declare a public health emergency of internatio

 Making the announcement on Twitter, The World Health Organization (the WHO), said it is “too early to declare a public health emergency of international concern given its restrictive and binary nature”. Only five conditions have ever been declared a public health emergency, the highest alarm the WHO can sound. These include the Zika virus and Ebola, which killed more than 13,000 people across two outbreaks.

The previously unknown coronavirus strain triggers flu-like symptoms, including breathlessness and fever. In the most severe cases, victims succumb to pneumonia. If the infection triggers pneumonia, doctors work to combat the complication. “Without treatment the end is inevitable,” said the charity Médecins Sans Frontières.“Deaths occur because of asphyxiation. However, Professor Peter Horby from the University of Oxford claims said there is “no effective anti-viral”, with treatment being “supportive”. 

Market implications

This news should help to support risk appetite which has deteriorated this week with markets factoring in the fear of a pandemic and a public health emergency of international.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD/USD is easing down from the December highs while nearing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
  • NZD/USD is under bearish pressure near the 2020 lows.
  • The level to beat for bears is the 0.6594 support on a daily closing basis. 
 
 

NZD/USD daily chart

 
NZD/USD is easing down from the December highs while nearing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The market is equally consolidating in a bull flag near the 0.6594 support. However, if the bears launch an attack the bull flag could fail and lead to a move down towards the 0.6566/52 price zone. Further down lie the 0.6525 level. Resistance is seen near 0.6614 and 0.6642 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.  
 

Additional key levels 

 

Previewing next weeks FOMC meeting, "the funds rate will almost certainly be left unchanged. Tweaks to the FOMC statement are likely to be minor," sai

Previewing next weeks FOMC meeting, "the funds rate will almost certainly be left unchanged. Tweaks to the FOMC statement are likely to be minor," said TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"Policy will likely still described as "appropriate" but with officials also still in "monitor[ing]" mode, consistent with an easing bias. The separate implementation note will likely include a 5bp rise in the IOER, with the change downplayed as just a technical adjustment."

"Fed meeting should still leave the USD the best of a bad lot but within tolerable ranges. EURUSD lacks a directional macro impulse to offset negative carry dynamics."

"Tactically, we remain comfortable with our USDCAD long and bias for USDJPY to correct lower as its move to 110 was without merit."

The USD/CAD pair gained nearly 70 pips on Wednesday as falling crude oil prices and the Bank of Canada's dovish policy outlook weighed on the loonie.
  • WTI remains on track to close in red for fourth straight day.
  • US Dollar Index climbs above 97.70 on Thursday.
  • Coming up on Friday: Retail Sales data from Canada and PMI data from US.

The USD/CAD pair gained nearly 70 pips on Wednesday as falling crude oil prices and the Bank of Canada's dovish policy outlook weighed on the loonie. Although the pair extended its rally and touched its highest level in a month at 1.3172 on Thursday, it retraced its daily upside and turned flat near the 1.3140 mark during the American session. Nevertheless, the latest pullback seems to be a technical correction as there no fundamental developments that could ramp up the demand for the CAD.

BoC rate cut odds hurt CAD

Commenting on the BoC's policy statement and Governor Poloz's remarks, “with the economy no longer seen as operating close to full capacity, the bank's tolerance for sub-trend growth is likely to be limited," said Josh Nye, Senior Economist at RBC Economics. "Today's statement makes us more comfortable with our call for a rate cut in April, and market odds of a move by mid-year are now slightly above 50%.”

Meanwhile, concerns over coronavirus spreading and becoming a global issue weighed on crude oil prices and dragged the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to its lowest level in more than two months below the $55 mark to make it difficult for the commodity-sensitive loonie to stay resilient against the greenback.

On the other hand, the greenback gathered strength amid the heavy selling pressure surrounding its risk-sensitive European counterparts. The US Dollar Index broke above its weekly range and touched its highest level since Christmas Eve at 97.82.

On Friday, Retail Sales data from Canada and the IHS Markit's Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

Technical levels to consider

 

GBP/USD is struggling in its correction and rally through the trendline resistance, meeting supply at the mid-point of the 1.31 handle with a bearish
  • GBP/USD now hangs in the balance of the Brexit date and the BoE meeting.
  • Brexit politics is something the BoE wants to be seen as avoiding.

GBP/USD is struggling in its correction and rally through the trendline resistance, meeting supply at the mid-point of the 1.31 handle with a bearish bias entering the charts. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3109 having travelled from a high of 1.3151 to a low of 1.3096.

The markets are getting set for the Bank of England on 30th January. However, while market expectations for a January cut have rapidly increased, it is not yet a done deal. Let's get into the arguments and fore and against a rate cut as soon as January. Spoiler alert - Bank of England could well be on hold considering a number of reasons, including a PMI rebound on Friday. 

BoE to hold

First and foremost, this will be the BoE Governor, Mark Carney’s, last before Andrew Bailey, (Prime Minister Boris Johnson favourite over Brexit-dubious Minouche Shafik) comes in to take the helm at the Old Lady mid-March. Even though Bailey was deputy governor at the BOE for three years to 2016, he didn’t sit on the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, so his monetary stance is more or less unknown. However, it would be very unusual for an outgoing governor, in their last meeting, to make such a move, especially due to the politics surrounding Brexit. After all, there are nine MPC members who will be unclear as to what future direction the incoming new governor will wish to steer.

This Friday, we will have PMI data and Monetary Policy Members, Tenreyro and Vlieghe, who joined the choir of members signing a dovish tune of late and who have been very specific about these forthcoming reports. Should the surveys rebound, it has been made clear, with a great deal of emphasis on the data, that the Bank of England could well hold-off. A rate cut following a rebound in the Composite reading would be peculiar. 

Also, Brexit is scheduled for the following day – surely the BoE would want to see the impact that this has on the UK economy before making a move? The BoE has made clear time and time again that they will not be motivated by politics and a move around the date could be seen as stimulated by Brexit politics, a message the BoE does not want to send to markets – (Casting minds back, he BoE also held off in July post the referendum, despite markets pricing in a rate cut 100%).

Reasons for BoE to cut

On the other hand, analysts at Nordea, who see the BoE holding, offer some arguments on a list for cutting that has become longer recently as follows:


"Not only have there been dovish MPC signals, but inflation has also softened somewhat as we prewarned back in September. Moreover, it appears the BoE in contrast to 2018, when inflation also undershot target, is not worried about a weaker sterling. And while wages are still holding up nicely, there are some signs that wages could soon lose steam (see chart, note BoE used to be wage hawks, especially Chief Economist Haldane).

With less easing ammo left, it could be wise to move swiftly and aggressively (at least according to Saunders). The cost of waiting could thus be high and as Carney said in his January speech, the BoE only have around 250 bps left in its arsenal, when combining rate cuts, forward guidance and QE."

Overall, even if the BoE does cut rates as soon as the 30th, that doesn't mean we will now be in a new easing cycle from the BoE and therefore, any downside in cable could be shortlived. But then again, it will very much depend on how the Brexit trade negotiations go between the EU and UK. 

GBP/USD levels

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD/USD is under pressure near January lows while trading below the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting an overall bearish momentum. The spot i
  • AUD/USD is under bearish pressure as the London session comes to an end.
  • The level to beat for sellers is the 0.6835 support. 
 
 

AUD/USD daily chart

 
AUD/USD is under pressure near January lows while trading below the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting an overall bearish momentum. The spot is also challenging an ascending trendline. Sellers are attempting to push the market below the 0.6835 support. A daily close below this level can see further depreciation towards the 0.6792 level, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Resistance is seen at the 0.6892, 0.6920 and 0.6937 level. 
 

Additional key levels 

 

The US dollar index (DXY) is challenging the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) while trading within a rising wedge channel. The ECB press conference weighed
  • The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is keeping the bullish bias intact.
  • Upside targets can be located near 97.85 and 98.20 levels.
 

DXY daily chart

 
The US dollar index (DXY) is challenging the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) while trading within a rising wedge channel. The ECB press conference weighed on the euro and lifted the US dollar index. 
 

DXY four-hour chart

 
DXY is trading above the main simple moving averages (SMAs) and a bullish trendline, suggesting a constructive bias in the medium term. The greenback is equally in an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern which is lifting the market towards the 97.85 and 98.20 levels on the way up. 
 

Additional key levels

 

United States 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 1.505%to 1.5%
Crude oil prices pushed lower for the fourth straight day on Thursday with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slumping to its lowest level si
  • OPEC's Barkindo says it's too early to talk about extending output cuts.
  • EIA report shows small drop in commercial crude oil inventories.
  • Concerns over coronavirus becoming a global epidemic weigh on sentiment.

Crude oil prices pushed lower for the fourth straight day on Thursday with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slumping to its lowest level since early November at $54.75.

Fears over coronavirus becoming a global epidemic and its potential negative impact on oil demand continue to weigh on prices.

Latest on coronavirus: Beijing cancels Chinese New Year temple fairs, suspected case in Scotland.

In addition to the dismal market mood, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo's remarks put additional weight on the WTI's shoulders. Barkindo said that it was too early to talk about a possible extension to the OPEC+ output cut deal until the end of 2020.

EIA data helps WTI rebound

However, the weekly report published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that commercial crude oil inventories in the US fell by 0.4 million barrels in the week ending January 17th, compared to analysts' estimate for a drop of 1 million barrels, to allow the WTI to stage a recovery. As of writing, the WTI was still down 1.17% on the day at $55.40.

On Friday, Baker Hughes Energy Services will release the US Oil Rig Count. Markets will be keeping a close eye on the developments surrounding the coronavirus as well.

Technical levels to watch for

 

XAU/USD is trading in a bull trend above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs). After rejecting the 1600 figure earlier in January, the metal has been c
  • The level to beat for bulls is the 1573 resistance on a daily closing basis. 
  • Support is seen near the 1555/1550 price zone. 
 

Gold daily chart

 
XAU/USD is trading in a bull trend above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs). After rejecting the 1600 figure earlier in January, the metal has been consolidating near the $1560 per troy ounce. 
 

Gold four-hour chart

 
Gold is attempting to break above the 1573 resistance. A daily close above this level could lead to further upside towards the 1570 level. However, a failure near 1573 can see the market stay in its recent range and trade back to the 1555/1550 support zone. 
 

Additional key levels

 

用以下方法对您的账户入金
vertical_align_top 开始申请