Analysts at the Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), in their latest note, express their view on the impact of USD repo moves on AUD rates markets.
“Last week’s USD repo market gyrations had flow-on effects to AUD markets. The most pronounced was on Friday via FX forwards and cross-currency basis.
The demand for USD pushed AUD forward implied yields lower and, briefly, 3m cross-currency basis to its lowest level in more than a year.
AUD repo rates have ticked higher in recent days. This is largely due to seasonal factors (quarter-end). The volatility in USD repo markets is also probably making some market participants a bit more nervous.”
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said in an interview aired on Radio Slovenia last Sunday, the central bank will likely have to take more action “in the coming months, quarters and years,” per Reuters.
there were “big uncertainties, risks ahead of us” which included U.S. economic policy which he said was destroying the system of free international trade, a potentially hard Brexit and the economic slowdown in China.
There were signs that economic slowdown (in the euro zone) would last longer than the bank had expected at the start of the year, but: “we are not talking about a fall of economic growth or a recession”.
The actions of the central bank (ECB) ... have worked. They eased the conditions on the financial markets, increased demand and price growth. So for now we are keeping our present strategy.
The ECB was also expecting governments to adjust their fiscal policies to the new economic conditions.
Despite the dovish comments from the ECB policymakers, the EUR/USD pair holds the upside above the 1.10 handle, helped by falling Treasury yields.
- EUR/USD's weekly inside bar candlestick pattern makes Friday's close pivotal.
- Upbeat German PMI could put a strong bid under the EUR.
- A weekly close above 1.1086 is needed to boost bullish prospects.
EUR/USD is mildly bid at press time and may gather upside traction in Europe if the preliminary German and Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices beat estimates.
The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1025, representing 0.07% gains on the day, having hit a low of 1.1010 earlier today.
EUR/USD fell 0.50% last week and traded well within the preceding week's high and low. Essentially, the pair created a bearish inside bar candlestick pattern on the weekly chart.
The focus, therefore, is on Friday's close. The bullish prospects would improve significantly if the pair ends above last week's high of 1.1086 on Friday. Meanwhile, a close below 1.0996 (last week's low) would imply bearish continuation.
Focus on PMIs
The German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep), scheduled for release at 07:30 GMT, is expected to show the manufacturing activity remained in contraction. The index is expected to print at 44.00 vs 43.5 in August.
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep) is expected to print at 47.3 vs 47.00.
Markets have priced in the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent decision to restart the quantitative easing program from November. Hence, the EUR could rise sharply if the preliminary PMIs beat estimates.
Bloomberg cited an unnamed US Treasury official, as saying that the US government is likely to unveil a plan on Monday to make the Treasury market more transparent.
The plan will be revealed to a Wall Street elite audience, central bankers and regulators during an event at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and will be announced by U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Justin Muzinich.
Automated market makers, which play a key role in modern trading, are of the view that greater disclosure will help them buy and sell more and reduce costs at the same time.
- USD/CNH confronts 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its September 06 swing high to September 13 swing low.
- 200-HMA, 1-week-old support-line restricts pair’s immediate declines.
- A horizontal-line since September 09 becomes the key upside barrier.
Even after failing to clear September 09 high, USD/CNH stays above an important support-confluence while trading near 7.1086 during early Monday.
Considering the pair’s sustained trading beyond key support, another attempt to clear 7.1310/20 horizontal region including recent highs can’t be denied.
Should prices remain strong beyond 7.1320, September 06 high near 7.1480 will become buyers’ favorite.
Alternatively, pair’s break below 7.0830 support-confluence including 200-hour moving average (HMA) and near-term rising trend-line highlights the importance of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, at 7.0600, as a consecutive rest-point, breaking which 7.0400 and 7.0350 could entertain sellers.
In a case where selling pressure remains intact below 7.0350, monthly bottom surrounding 7.0310 and August 13 low close to 7.0000 round-figure could be targeted if holding short positions.
USD/CNH hourly chart
- WTI spike runs out of fuel, pulls-back to the 21 4-hour moving average.
- A break to the downside will open prospects for the 61.8% Fibo and Aug resistance just below the 57 handle.
The price of Oil on Monday in Asi opened with a spike to the upside followed by a pullback to leave the black gold holding in bullish territory and 0.60% at the time of writing, supported by the 21 4-hour moving average testings a prior trendline resistance. On a re-escalation of bullish fundamentals, the April highs at 66.58 will be a key target.
Meanwhile, Oil rallied to a 127.20% Fibonacci extension of the July swing highs to the August swing lows at the start of last week but dropped back significantly to hold in the 58 handle. While the bias leans bullish above the bullish daily moving averages, but a break to the downside will open prospects for the 61.8% Fibo and Aug resistance just below the 57 handle.
WTI 4-HR chart
Former Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Zhou Xiaochuan was on the wires over the weekend, speaking at an event in Singapore on the negative effects of a trade war.
Key Headlines (via Caixin):
Existing global monetary and financial order is facing daunting and unprecedented challenges due to regional and global trade disputes
Normal functioning of the international monetary and financial system has been "disrupted by financial sanctions and other measures contrary to market rules”.
Trade disputes are seriously threatening global trade and economic growth.
- NZD/USD has picked up a bid, possibly due to risk-on in the equities.
- The bias remains bearish with lower highs, lower lows setup on the weekly chart.
NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6273, representing 0.24% gains on the day.
The uptick could be associated with the risk-on action in the equities. As of writing, the stocks in New Zealand are up 0.60%. The futures on the S&P 500 are also up close to 0.5% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is adding 0.48%.
The stocks have likely picked up a bid on China's Vice Agriculture Minister's comments that last week's canceled visit by a Chinese trade-delegation to US farm-states has nothing to do with trade talks.
The Kiwi may extend gains to the 50-hour moving average (MA) at 0.6290 if the risk assets remain bid.
Technical outlook, however, would remain bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 10-day MA, currently at 0.6346.
The pair fell by 1.88% last week – the biggest drop since the last week of July – and closed at the lowest level since September 2015, confirming a fresh lower low, lower high pattern on the weekly chart.
Hence, the path of least resistance is to the downside and the selling could gather traction once the daily low of 0.6260 is breached.
- Gold struggles to justify recent trade/political tension concerning the US, China and the Middle East.
- The Bullion takes a U-turn from near-term falling resistance-line in search of a fresh direction.
Gold prices fail to portray the recent risk-aversion wave as they remain below near-term resistance-line while taking rounds to $1,513 on early Monday.
Renewed geopolitical tension between Saudi Arabia and Yemen has been a major driving force for markets’ immediate risk sentiment off-late. Following a threat from Houthi rebels, Saudi Arabia has also flashed signals of war if an attack takes place whereas the US deployed additional forces in the Middle East as a measure being “defensive in nature’.
On the other hand, Chinese delegates’ early leave from the US, without visiting the US farms, got a negative signal relating to the recently conducted trade negotiations in Washington. However, the US and Chinese media have been trying to cover the issue in order to (likely) avoid the bad start of the talks in October.
Also favoring the risk-off could be the continuation of an easy monetary policy wave from the global central bankers amid a lack of positive headline statistics and on-going trade uncertainty.
While risk-off sentiment dragged the equities and the US Treasury yields down, the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Gold have to bear the burden of the US Dollar’s (USD) sturdiness. It should also be noted that Autumnal Equinox Day holiday in Japan and a lack of fresh signal during the early Asian session also restricts the safe-haven’s upside.
Looking forward, traders could keep an eye over the preliminary activity numbers from the Eurozone and the US while also following the trade/political headlines for further direction.
Unless breaking a short-term descending resistance-line, at $1,517, prices are less likely to aim for September 04 low near $1,534 and the monthly top close to $1,557. As a result, $1,500 and $1,480 remain in the sellers’ watch-list for now.
- USD/JPY has started out in Asia for the week a touch higher.
- USD/JPY pair has settled a handful of pips above a critical Fibonacci support at 107.45.
USD/JPY has started out in Asia for the week a touch higher as sentiment for trade talks remains on track, if not a little delicate following Friday's comments from US President Trump who has signalled a lack of a sense of urgency to secure a deal before the US Presidential elections in the Autumn of 2020. USD/JPY is currently trading at 107.74, + up 0.20% having travelled from a low of 107.60 to a high of 107.75.
Last Friday, USD/JPY was falling from 108.00 to 107.53 before reasserting itself on weekend news that came in the assurance from Chinese officials that trade talks will continue in October, despite the abrupt departure of the negotiation team from the US on Friday.
Fed chat taking the spot light
Elsewhere, we had Fedspeak that came from Bullard (dove) and Rosengren (hawk) who, as analysts at Wetapc explained, "released rationales for their dissents at last week’s FOMC meeting. Vice-Chair Clarida ploughed the middle ground in line with the FOMC’s statement and clarified their concerns via the provision of insurance in the latest cut, the sound resilience of the US economy, but the weakness of the global environment. Countering Rosengren’s concerns, Clarida stated that there were no signs of elevated financial instability."
As for US yields, the 2-year treasury yields dropped from 1.75% to 1.68%, while the 10-year yield slid from 1.79% to 1.72%. "Markets are pricing 26bp of easing by year-end, and a terminal rate of 1.22% (Fed funds rate currently 1.88%)," analysts at Westpac noted.
Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet notes that the USD/JPY pair has settled a handful of pips above a critical Fibonacci support at 107.45, the 61.8% retracement of its August decline:
"The pair has been developing above the level for two consecutive weeks, with approaches to it attracting buying interest. That said, a break below the level will likely imply further slides ahead. In the daily chart, the pair is now below a bearish 100 DMA but still holding above a bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators continued retreating from overbought readings, maintaining their downward slopes but above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart, however, the bearish potential is stronger, as technical indicators head firmly south well into negative ground, while the 20 SMA began turning lower above the current level."
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0734 vs Friday's fix of 7.0730.
In its latest report, published early Monday in Asia, the ING anticipates the Indian government’s latest measures to have a little impact on their forecasts of a weaker Indian Rupee (INR) fueling the USD/INR pair towards 73.50 level by the end of 2019.
“In a surprise move last Friday, Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, announced a significant tax reduction for domestic companies. The move is estimated to cost about $20 billion to the government in lost revenue.”
“Aggressive stimulus adds to the economy’s long-term plight by further delaying fiscal consolidation. Certainly, the immediate implication will be a blowout of the fiscal deficit well above the government’s 3.3% of GDP projection for the current fiscal year.”
“There is no clarity about how the government will be financing this wider deficit. The $24 billion payouts from the RBI's coffer won’t be enough, nor can the government continue to rely on such monetization of the deficit.”
“The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) aggressive monetary easing with a total 110 basis point (bp) policy rate cuts implemented in four policy meetings so far this year has failed to arrest the growth slowdown.”
“Whether this helps to kick-start the economy is still to be seen. For now, the negative consequences of derailed fiscal consolidation on India's external creditworthiness keeps a weakening pressure on local financial assets.”
“We retain our end-2019 USD/INR forecast at 73.50 (spot 70.95).”
- US President Trump and UK PM Boris Johnson have agreed to make a trade deal at 'lightning speed'.
- The President and the PM could publicly commit to the highly ambitious timeline as early as Tuesday (September 22) when they meet in New York.
The Sun has reported that the US President Trump and UK PM Boris Johnson have agreed to make a trade deal at 'lightning speed' by July of next year and before the US Presidential elections. Trump and Johnson are to meet this Thursday to discuss...
"BORIS Johnson and Donald Trump have agreed to strike a UK-US trade deal in lightning quick time by July next year. The President and the PM could publicly commit to the highly ambitious timeline as early as Tuesday (September 22) when they meet in New York, " The Sun reported:
"Boris was initially sceptical about Mr Trump’s aim to have a deal tied up in just nine months time.
But he has been persuaded to aim for it because of the high risk that the US presidential election in November poses.
American politicians will be distracted by the campaign for the White House as well as Congress by the Autumn, and a new president may not share Mr Trump’s enthusiasm for a deal.
It has also emerged that the deal the two leaders are aiming for will be the biggest free trade agreement that the US has ever done with another country.
While the deal could be signed next summer, its implementation will have to wait until Brexit’s transition period finishes in December 2020.
'A GREAT WIN FOR US'
But it will still come as a major boost to Britain’s Brexit hopes.
A senior Government source told The Sun: “The political will is there now on both sides to do the deal by July.
"It's a great win for us, and Trump is also really keen to shout about it in the States.
“There is also a recognition on both sides of the Atlantic that is must be done by then because the US election cycle starts soon afterwards.”
The British and American leaders will hold talks about the trade deal in the margins of the UN General Assembly meeting on Tuesday.
The two men had planned on also setting out a full road map for the deal’s negotiation on Tuesday, but that has now been delayed for details to be ironed out – probably until when the President is next in London in December for the NATO summit.
Though negotiations can’t formally begin until the UK has left the EU, officials have been holding scoping talks for months.
The US’s biggest priority is to see a major reduction in the UK’s tariffs on steel imports, as well as a reduction or end to the digital tax on tech giants.
London’s biggest ask is for access to the giant American market for financial services.
International Trade Secretary Liz Truss, who will also be in New York this week to meet her opposite number, US trade boss Robert Lighthizer, has already insisted the UK cannot compromise on food standards or access to the NHS.
Boris revealed Trump’s July 2020 target last month at the G7 summit in Biarritz, calling the President “gung-ho” about its speed.
- GBP/JPY is looking south, according to the candlestick arrangement on the daily chart.
- The pair could test a key Fibonacci retracement of 133.61 in Europe/US session.
GBP/JPY is currently sidelined near 134.30.
The pair created a Doji candle on Thursday, signaling indecision or bullish exhaustion after a rally from 126.67 to levels above 135.50. More importantly, on Friday, the pair closed below the Doji's low of 134.27, confirming a bullish-to-bearish trend change.
The reversal looks strong as the pair fell 0.89% on Friday, engulfing the price action seen in the preceding two days.
Hence, support at 133.61 (23.6% Fib R of 126.67/135.75) could be put to test in the European/American session.
A close above Friday's high of 135.75 is needed to revive the bullish view.
- USD/IDR nears a week-long range’s support.
- 4H 200MA limits immediate upside.
- RSI portrays normal condition, indicating the range-trading to continue.
USD/IDR revisits one-week-old range support as it trades near 14,055 during the early Asian session on Monday.
50-bar moving average on the four-hour chart (4H 50MA) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of August-September declines has been restricting the pair’s downside since September 16, which together with normal condition of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) indicate brighter chances of a pullback towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 14,150.
However, 200-bar moving average on the four-hour chart (4H 200MA), around 14,170 now, could restrict pair’s further recovery, if not then 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, near 14,232 and 14,315 respectively, could offer intermediate halts to the quote’s rally to late-August high around 14,340/50.
On the downside, pair’s declines below 14,050/48 support-confluence could please sellers with 13,990 and recent low close to 13,880.
USD/IDR 4-hour chart
- PBoC expected to set the Yuan midpoint at 7.0828.
- China cut its new one-year benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row on Friday.
The People's Bank of China is expected to set the Yuan midpoint at 7.0828 against the dollar according to a Reuters estimate.
The PBoC is in viewpoint at the moment, following China cutting its new one-year benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row on Friday, a step by the central bank to try to wrestle down borrowing costs and support the economy as the Sino-U.S. trade war drags on.
Chinese delegates cut a meeting short last week and US President Trump was also speaking up and signalling to markets that there is little sense of urgency in the US administration either which sent a risk-off tone verberating through financial and commodity markets on Friday. FX is on tenterhooks and currencies such as the Aussie will take the brunt of weakness in the Yuan and trade talk traction.
Early on Monday morning in Asia, the Westpac confirms its previous estimation of a 25 basis points (bps) cash rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The bank cites the latest monetary policy meeting minutes favoring their forecasts.
“Bank will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points on October 1 and again by 25 basis points on February 4, 2020.”
“That call updated our previous call on May 24 when we were the only forecaster (Bloomberg Survey on that day) to argue that the cash rate would fall below 1%.”
“The most important development was the release of the September RBA Board minutes.”
“The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board’s September meeting contain similar themes to the August minutes but indicate that the Board acknowledges that it is getting closer to its next move on policy.”
“In these minutes there is no reference to previous actions. Arguably reference to previous actions is a clear sign that the Board is content to observe developments whereas not referring to previous actions there is less emphasis on the need to wait.”
- GBP/USD stays on the back foot while nearing the four-day-old rising trend-line.
- Bearish MACD favors a decline to 200-hour EMA.
A bearish signal from the 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator portrays the GBP/USD pair’s weakness as it seesaws around near-term key support-line while taking rounds to 1.2470 during early Monday.
The pair nears a four-day-old rising trend-line level of 1.2470 with a bearish MACD signal favoring further declines to 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA) level of 1.2434.
However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of pair’s run-up since September 09, at 1.2367, could limit further south-run, if not then 1.2280 and 1.2230 could gain bears’ attention.
Meanwhile, 1.2500, 1.2520 and recent high surrounding 1.2585 could please buyers unless the pair portrays decisive trading below near-term key support-line.
GBP/USD hourly chart
Trend: pullback expected
Goldman Sachs analysts expect the USD/JPY pair to drop to 103 in the next three months. Currently, the pair is trading at 107.68, down 1.82% on a year-to-date basis.
- Geopolitical risks make Yen the best G10 long.
- The Bank of Japan is likely to extend forward guidance in October.
- The BOJ hsas limited options to fight JPY's ascent.
- The 4-hour 200 moving average at 1,510 which continues to hold.
- Bears can target a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs.
The price of gold is soft in the open this week as trade talk noise continued to dominate. Gold has fallen from a high of 1516.69 to a low of 1511.89 and is currently trading -0.18% on the session so far, falling back towards the prior trendline resistance.
The recent resistance was pierced on Friday with a higher high in the 1,500s and closing above the 4-hour 200 moving average at 1,510 which continues to hold in Asia today. On a continuation to the upside, bulls will target the 1550 level which guards territories towards 1,590 as the 127.2% Fibo target area. Bears can target a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs around 1470 could be on the cards which guards the 19 July swing highs at 1,452.93.
- GBP/NZD is going to be a busy pair this week
- RBNZ in focus and Boris Johnson heads to New York today for three days of talks with world leaders on Brexit and Iran.
GBP/NZD is going to be a busy pair this week and the recent price action suggests further upside to come, especially should Brexit sentiment continues to support the Pound and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, to the contrary, continue to weigh on the outlook for the Kiwi.
GBP/NZD has started out the week following 10 consecutive day's of positive closes, including Friday's bearish pin bar which could be a spanner in the works on a technical basis for the near-term, encouraging longs to take profits ahead of the RBNZ this week. Indeed, the primary focus for this week will be Wednesday’s RBNZ OCR Review. "Market pricing for RBNZ is for 7bp of easing on 25 September, with a terminal rate of 0.57%," according to analysts at Westpac:
"While we don’t expect a move next week, we still think that the RBNZ is inclined towards further easing. We expect another cut at the November Monetary Policy Statement, taking the OCR to a new low of 0.75%. Our view is that by that point, the cumulative stimulus from lower interest rates and increasing government spending will be enough to shore up the economy, get unemployment falling again, and set inflation on a path towards 2%."
The Supreme Court is expected to deliver its decision this week
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson heads to New York today for three days of talks with world leaders on Brexit and Iran which is likely to derail a UK Supreme Court ruling on the prime minister’s decision to suspend parliament. However, headlines will likely flow considering Johnson is to meet leaders at the UN General Assembly including German chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump. The Supreme Court, on the other hand, is expected to deliver its decision this week on whether Mr Johnson behaved lawfully in suspending parliament for five weeks.
- WTI began the week on the strong foot amid Saudi-Iran tension.
- The lack of fresh clues dragged the oil benchmark to fill in the week-start gap-up.
- Key activity numbers, trade/political headlines will be in the spotlight.
Despite witnessing a pullback towards filling the early-day gap-up, geopolitical tension in the Middle East keeps favoring WTI buyers as the black gold trades near $59.00 during the Asian session on Monday.
The Oil benchmark flashed a week-start gap-up reacting to the recent news that Yemeni rebels have warned of another attack on Saudi Arabia. Also, the reaction from the US and Saudi Arabia in the form of an increased military presence in the Middle East and a warning of war respectively offered additional support to the oil bulls. Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal’s expectations that it will take months rather than few weeks, as conveyed by the Saudis earlier last-week, to return to the full production also backed the bulls.
Read: Tensions in Middle East are on the rise, Oil prices a major focus
Keeping prices in check is the doubts surrounding the US-China trade deal as the recent visit of the Chinese delegates to the US had mixed reactions after the diplomats hastily left and refrained from visiting the US farms despite promising earlier.
It should also be noted that some of the media releases from the US and China have started taming the trade-war risk while few others are busy cheering the French efforts to broker the US-Iran peace backed by the French Foreign Minister’s latest comments.
However, fresh developments have neither being spotted at the geopolitical front nor at the US-China trade level, which could have pushed the buyers towards a profit-booking wave. Though, overall risk remains to the upside with the expected decline in global oil output due to the Saudi attack and a tensed condition in the region.
Moving on, key Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) numbers from the EU and the US for September month will be in the spotlight for fresh direction.
200-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of $57.90 seems crucial support to watch as it holds the gate to further declines towards six-week-old rising trend-line around $54.50. Alternatively, $60.00 round-figure, July high surrounding $61.00 and recent tops near $63.15 can keep the advances under check.
- AUD/JPY stays under near-term key resistance-confluence after Aussie PMI data.
- September month activity numbers from Commonwealth Bank flashes mixed results.
- Bearish MACD favors pair’s further declines.
With the key preliminary purchasing manager indices (PMI) from the Commonwealth Bank flashing mixed signals, AUD/JPY remains on the back foot while taking rounds to 72.87 during the early Asian session on Monday.
While the headline Manufacturing PMI slipped below 50.9 forecast to 49.4, Services PMI crossed 45.3 expectations with 52.5 level whereas Composite PMI rose above 49.3 prior to 51.9.
The 200-bar exponential moving average (EMA) and a three-day-old falling trend-line together constitute 73.15/20 as a near-term key resistance-confluence. Also exerting the downside pressure is the bearish signal from 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator.
With this, the quote is likely declining towards 72.70 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of August-September upside, around 72.20. However, August 29 high near 71.80 and September month bottom close to 71.15/10 could restrict the pair’s additional south-run.
Alternatively, pair’s run-up beyond 73.20 enables it to question mid-month low surrounding 73.80 while seeking to visit 74.00 round-figure and a monthly high around 74.50.
AUD/JPY 4-hour chart
- AUD/USD portrays risk-aversion amid trade/political tension.
- Catalysts concerning the US-China trade relations flash mixed signals, Saudi Arabia warns Iran of a war if it attacks the nation.
- Australia’s activity numbers grab immediate market attention.
Despite recent U-turn in the US-China trade saga, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure around two-week low as it trades near 0.6770 during the early Asian session on Monday.
AUD/USD, which is generally considered as a barometer of market’s risk sentiment, recently dropped to early-month lows after the US-China trade relations recently tweaked following the Chinese delegate’s cancellation of the US farm visit and early exit to the dragon nation, coupled with the US President Donald Trump’s pressure for a full deal.
Adding to the risk aversion wave was the Yemeni rebel warning that Iran is preparing for another attack on Saudi Arabia. In response, the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister warned Iran of risking a war while the US deployed additional forces in the Middle East terming it as a “defensive in nature”.
There has been some noticeable change in both the trade/political headlines off-late as the Wall Street Journal quotes Houthi leader turning down claims of any such warnings of an attack on Saudi Arabia while the New York Times and China’s Xinhua trying to tame the trade-war fears.
Recently released quarterly statement from the Australian Council Of Financial Regulators says that the major banks have seen slower growth relative to other lenders.
With this, equities, bond yields, and the Aussie pair are under pressure while safe-havens like the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Gold benefit from the risk-off mood.
Investors will now keep an eye over September month readings of Commonwealth Bank’s Manufacturing, Services and Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs). Forecasts suggest the headlines Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 50.9 with its Services counterpart likely weakening to 45.3 from 49.1 earlier. It should be noted that the Composite PMI registered 49.3 mark earlier.
Following that, the US is also up for releasing preliminary activity numbers for September wherein a likely improvement in the Markit Services PMI will confront the market consensus of a below-50 level of Composite PMI.
While 0.6740 and 0.6700 can be considered as immediate downside support ahead of anticipating further south-run towards yearly bottom surrounding 0.6675, an upside clearance of 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 0.6810 could trigger fresh recovery in the direction to 0.6850 that nears multiple lows marked in the second week of the month.
- Increased divergence in views amongst the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board on what the OCR.
- Shadow Board members were sceptical about whether a further lowering of interest rates would boost activity and headline inflation.
In recent reports, there has been an increased divergence in views amongst the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board on what the OCR should be at the OCR Review this Wednesday.
"This widening in the range of views follows the Reserve Bank’s surprise decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points at its August meeting. Although Shadow Board members generally called for keeping the OCR on hold, some saw a higher OCR as appropriate. The views were taken before the release of June quarter GDP.
The Reserve Bank surprised markets with a greater-than-expected OCR cut, and left the door open to further easing. A deterioration in the global growth outlook appears to be their main concern, with the extensive easing by other central banks a primary influence given the effects on the exchange rate.
However, many Shadow Board members were sceptical about whether a further lowering of interest rates would boost activity and headline inflation. Some highlighted the financial stability risks with having monetary policy set too low, particularly with the effects on asset price inflation.” said Christina Leung, Principal Economist at NZIER."
- NZD/USD seesaws around 4-year low as trade/political tensions prevail
- Risk-off currencies relieved on the trade talk clarifications.
- Chinese trip was cancelled out of concern that it would turn into a media circus.
Trade talks were a theme at the end of the week which weighed on the price of US stocks as reports that the Chinese delegation abruptly ended the talk on Friday concerned investors. The benchmarks closed in the red for the first weekly decline in a month and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 160.60 points, or 0.59%, at 26,934.19, while the S&P 500 index dropped 14.89 points, or 0.5%, to 2,991.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 65.20 points to reach 8,117.67, a decline of 0.8%.
At the same time, U.S. President Trump threw cold water on expectations of a sense of urgency from the US administration with respect to finding a solution to the trade dispute. “We’re looking for a complete deal. I’m not looking for a partial deal,” Trump said, rejecting suggestions that he needed an agreement for his reelection campaign. “I don’t think I need it before the election. I think people know that we’re doing a great job,” the president added when speaking at a joint news conference Friday with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
Trade talks going ahead as planned
The Chinese delegation cancelled trips to Montana and Nebraska starting this weekend and into next week for discussions with the farming communities there. However, in more recent reports about the circumstances, "instead, the trip was cancelled out of concern that it would turn into a media circus and give the misimpression that China was trying to meddle in American domestic politics" according to the New York Times. Indeed, markets are in a state of flux over the trade talks but they should take comfort that talks are still planned to continue throughout October as scheduled. At a glance, the FX space is showing signs of relief with AUD/CHF and AUD/JPY rising in the open.
- NZD/USD nosedived to late-2015 lows amid US-China trade pessimism, overall USD strength.
- Chinese delegation’s early exit from the US, Trump’s comments triggered risk-off amid geopolitical tension surrounding the Middle East.
- The light economic calendar keeps the market focus on trade/political headlines.
NZD/USD portrays the recently renewed trade-war risk the best way as it seesaws near the four-year bottom while taking rounds to 0.6265 during early Monday morning in Asia.
The Kiwi pair slumped to multi-year low on Friday after the Chinese delegation canceled their visit to the US farms following the US President Donald Trump’s comments that he wants a full deal with China. Though, China’s Xinhua recently termed the trade talks in Washington as “constructive”.
Also exerting the downside pressure is the US Dollar’s (USD) across the board strength on the back of the risk-aversion wave that gets a boost from the Middle East. The Saudi-Iran tussle seems to have worsened after Yemeni rebels warned of another attack and the US deployed additional forces in the region. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister conveys that Iran’s launch of an attack would risk war.
While there is nothing major on the economic calendar that could lure investors, trade/political headlines will be the key to follow for fresh direction ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting, up for Wednesday.
It should, however, be noted that the US activity numbers for September can entertain short-term traders.
In a contrast to the oversold signal by 14-day relative strength index (RSI), which favors the pair’s pullback towards 0.6300 and 10-day SMA level of 0.6330, a sustained trading below the latest low surrounding 0.6250 risks further south-run towards a falling trend-line connecting lows of May and early-September, around 0.6225.