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EUR/USD starts the week on the defensive and challenges the monthly lows near 1.1680. Extra losses appear likely in the short-term horizon, with the i
  • EUR/USD remains on the downside at/below 1.1700.
  • Further downside faces the next support near 1.1660.

EUR/USD starts the week on the defensive and challenges the monthly lows near 1.1680.

Extra losses appear likely in the short-term horizon, with the immediate target at the 2021 low at 1.1663 (August 20) on a breach of 1.1683. A deeper pullback should expose the September 2020 low at 1.1612 followed by the November 2020 low in the 1.1600 neighbourhood.

In the meantime, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is seen on the negative side while below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1975.

EUR/USD daily chart

 

UOB Group?s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assess the latest inflation figures in the Malaysian economy. Key Takeaways ?Headl

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assess the latest inflation figures in the Malaysian economy.

Key Takeaways

“Headline inflation eased further to a 5-month low of 2.0% y/y in Aug (Jul: +2.2% y/y). This came in lower than our estimate (2.1%) and Bloomberg consensus (2.2%). It was a broad-based moderation, led by food, transport (particularly air flight), housing, utilities & other fuels (i.e. housing rental), and miscellaneous goods & services (especially personal effects) segments.”

“We expect inflation to remain stable and hover around its long-term 20-year average level of 2.0% for the rest of 2021 and into 2022… We reiterate our full-year inflation forecasts of 2.5% for 2021 (BNM’s forecast: 2.0%-3.0%) and 2022.”

Adding to his earlier comments, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans noted that the unemployment rate could go below 4% before too long. Key quotes: Th

Adding to his earlier comments, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans noted that the unemployment rate could go below 4% before too long.

Key quotes:

  • The unemployment rate could go to 3.5% and be consistent with inflation still struggling to reach 2%.
  • Still, early days to think that recent inflation increases will work their way into inflation expectations.
  • Fed would have probably done what it did with asset purchases even without the new framework.

Market reaction:

The US Dollar Index held on to its modest intraday gains just below mid-93.00s, or one-month tops and was supported by the ongoing surge in the US Treasury bond yields/prospects for an early Fed rate hike.

DXY continues to regain ground lost during last week and retests the 93.50 area on Monday?s session. Immediate hurdle now emerges at recent peaks just
  • DXY adds to Friday’s advance and retests the 93.50 area.
  • A move to 2021 high at 93.72 stays in the pipeline.

DXY continues to regain ground lost during last week and retests the 93.50 area on Monday’s session.

Immediate hurdle now emerges at recent peaks just past 93.50. A move above this level should favour another visit to the 2021 tops above 93.70 (August 20). Further north from here should come the round level at 94.00 ahead of November 2020 high at 94.30.

In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, the constructive stance on the dollar is seen unchanged while bove the 200-day SMA, today at 91.50.

DXY daily chart

 

GBP/USD remains capped at 1.3755/65. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for a retest of key range support at 1.3601/1.3567. Key support stays seen startin

GBP/USD remains capped at 1.3755/65. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for a retest of key range support at 1.3601/1.3567.

Key support stays seen starting at 1.3601 and stretching down to 1.3571/67

“Support is seen at 1.3694/90 initially, ahead of 1.3633 and then a retest of key support from the lower end of converging range from late June, seen starting at 1.3601 and stretching down to 1.3571/67.”

“An eventual move below 1.3571/67 should resolve the range lower for the completion of a bearish “triangle” continuation pattern. We would then look for a more meaningful decline with support seen initially at 1.3520/15, the December 2019 high, then the ‘neckline’ to the 2019/2020 base at 1.3451/36.”

“Big picture, we would see scope for an eventual fall to a cluster of supports including the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bull trend at 1.3189/35.”

“Above 1.3755 can see a deeper recovery to the 55-day average and further price resistance at 1.3788/1.3814, but with fresh sellers expected to show here.”

 

The GBP/USD pair attracted some dip-buying on the first day of a new trading week and rallied over 50 pips from the daily swing lows, around the 1.366
  • GBP/USD regained positive traction on Monday and recovered a part of the previous session’s losses.
  • The uptick was sponsored by some cross-driven strength stemming from a fall in the EUR/GBP cross.
  • A goodish pickup in the USD demand might cap the upside near the 1.3710-15 confluence resistance.

The GBP/USD pair attracted some dip-buying on the first day of a new trading week and rallied over 50 pips from the daily swing lows, around the 1.3660-55 region. The momentum pushed the pair above the 1.3700 mark, though bulls struggled to capitalize on the move.

The intraday uptick lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst and was exclusively sponsored by some cross-driven strength stemming from a sharp decline in the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the emergence of some buying around the US dollar kept a lid on any further gains for the GBP/USD pair.

Prospects for an early rate hike by the Fed continued underpinning the USD, which got an additional boost from a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot beyond the 1.50% threshold for the first time since June.

The USD maintained its bid tone near one-month tops following the release of mostly better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders for August. Headline orders rose 1.8% in August and orders excluding transportation items recorded a modest 0.2% growth during the reported month.

From a technical perspective, the positive move stalled just ahead of 200-hour SMA, around the 1.3710-15 region. The mentioned area coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the hawkish BoE-inspired rally from the 1.3600 mark and should now act as a key pivotal point for traders.

Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining some positive traction but are yet to confirm a bullish bias on the daily chart. This further makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.3710-15 confluence hurdle before positioning for any further gains.

This is followed by the post-BoE swing highs, around mid-1.3700s, above which the GBP/USD pair is likely to accelerate the move and aim to reclaim the 1.3800 mark. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the 1.3835-40 region ahead of the 1.3870-75 supply zone.

On the flip side, the daily swing lows, around the 1.3660-55 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and turn the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to slide back towards challenging the 1.3600 mark, or monthly lows.

GBP/USD 1-hour chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

 

According to the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed this Monday, Durable Goods Orders in the United States increased by 0.7% in August. T
  • US Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.8% in August from -0.1% previous.
  • The US Dollar Index holds steady near one-month tops, just below mid-93.00s.

According to the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed this Monday, Durable Goods Orders in the United States increased by 0.7% in August. This reading was well above market expectations pointing to a 0.5% growth and also marked a notable rebound from the previous month’s reading of -0.1%.

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%, while Excluding defense, orders unexpectedly jumped 2.4% during the reported month, the publication further read.

Market reaction

This report remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the US dollar, which was last seen hovering just below mid-93.00s, or one-month tops touched last week.

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation below forecasts (0.5%) in August: Actual (0.2%)
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense came in at 2.4%, above expectations (-0.3%) in August
United States Durable Goods Orders came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (0.7%) in August
USD/MYR has likely moved to a consolidative 4.1700/4.2000 range in the short term, commented Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group?s Global Economics & Markets

USD/MYR has likely moved to a consolidative 4.1700/4.2000 range in the short term, commented Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research.

Key Quotes

“While USD/MYR rose sharply late last week, it retreated without testing the round-number resistance at 4.2000 (high of 4.1990).”

“Shorter-term upward momentum is beginning to wane and this coupled with overbought conditions indicate that USD/MYR is likely to consolidate for this week, expected to be within a 4.1700/4.2000 range.”

The upside momentum in EUR/JPY appears to have run out of steam in the boundaries of the key hurdle at 130.00 the figure on Monday. Further upside nee
  • EUR/JPY’s recovery falters just ahead of the 130.00 level.
  • Extra gains seen above the short-term resistance line.

The upside momentum in EUR/JPY appears to have run out of steam in the boundaries of the key hurdle at 130.00 the figure on Monday.

Further upside needs to surpass the key short-term resistance line, today just above 130.00, to open the door to a move to the mid-130.00s in the near term ahead of the 100-day SMA at 130.82.

While below the 200-day SMA at 129.63 the outlook for the cross should remain bearish for the time being.

EUR/JPY daily chart

 

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that the US economy is close to having met the Fed's bar for beginning

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that the US economy is close to having met the Fed's bar for beginning to reduce its bond purchase program.

Additional quotes:

  • If job market improvement continues, likely that the bar will be met soon and tapering can begin.
  • A low unemployment rate should not dictate a change in policy rate if the inflation rate has not become undesirable.
  • Inflation to date does not yet satisfy the Fed's overshooting criterion.
  • Think long-run inflation expectations are still likely somewhat below target.
  • The current surge in prices due to supply issues not leaving a worrisome imprint on long-run inflation expectations.
  • Fed should focus on producing sustainable inflation that aligns longer-run inflation expectations with the 2% goal.

Market reaction:

The remarks remained supportive of the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar and pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond closer to the 1.50% threshold.

We continue to view this inflation upswing as largely temporary, said the ECB President Christine Lagarde at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic

We continue to view this inflation upswing as largely temporary, said the ECB President Christine Lagarde at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

Additional quotes:

  • Inflation could prove weaker than foreseen if economic activity were to be affected by a renewed tightening of restrictions.
  • Seeing limited signs of this risk of stronger price pressures so far.
  • Our baseline scenario continues to foresee inflation remaining below our target over the medium term.
  • There are some factors that could lead to stronger price pressures than are currently expected.
  • It is evident that the economic recovery in the euro area is increasingly advanced.
  • The growth outlook continues to be uncertain and heavily dependent on the evolution of the pandemic.
  • We remain entirely committed to preserving these favourable financing conditions.
  • This is necessary for a robust recovery that will restore inflation to its pre-pandemic level.

Market reaction:

The remarks undermined the already weaker shared currency. The EUR/USD pair was last seen trading just below the 1.1700 mark, well within the striking distance of monthly lows touched last week.

Monday's US economic docket highlights the release of Durable Goods Orders data for August. The US Census Bureau will publish the monthly report at 12

US durable goods orders overview

Monday's US economic docket highlights the release of Durable Goods Orders data for August. The US Census Bureau will publish the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show that headline orders rose 0.7% during the reported month. Orders excluding transportation items, which tend to have a broader impact, are anticipated to have increased by 0.5% in August.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

As Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet explains: “According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the FOMC members are agreed that the economy has met the criteria for a reduction in bond purchases to begin. Yet, at the Wednesday meeting, the Fed chose caution rather than action. A strong August Durable Goods number, especially in business spending, will help to reassure the governors that the economy is in full recovery. Durable Goods will likely cast their vote for the taper, higher Treasury rates and a higher dollar.”

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst, provided a brief technical outlook: “Euro/dollar is trading above 1.17 and benefiting from upside momentum on the four-hour chart, a positive development. On the other hand, the currency pair still trades below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.”

Yohay also offered important technical levels to trade the major: “Some resistance awaits at 1.1725, the daily high. It is followed by 1.1745, a line that separated ranges. Further above, 1.1790 and 1.1830 are eyed. Support awaits at 1.17, a swing low from Friday. It is followed by 1.1680, the September low, and 1.1660.”

Key Notes

  •   US Durable Goods Orders August Preview: Retail Sales have led the way

  •   EUR/USD Forecast: Euro set to rise on calm from German elections, Evergrande, data eyed

  •   EUR/USD adds to recent losses and drops below 1.1700, looks to Lagarde

About US durable goods orders

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

The sharp move lower in EUR/GBP this morning demonstrates that the dust is still settling after last week?s Bank of England policy meeting. In the vie

The sharp move lower in EUR/GBP this morning demonstrates that the dust is still settling after last week’s Bank of England policy meeting. In the view of economists at Rabobank, the pound could continue to be buffeted by the debate about the possibility of 2022 rate hikes for some time.

Strong likelihood that the uncertainty will persist for some time

“For some forecasters, the takeaway from last week’s meeting is that the MPC could announce a small rate hike as soon as February. This view has clearly encouraged GBP bulls. Others, including ourselves, expect that the UK economy will be too fragile for the Bank to hike rates before 2023. This view suggests there could be plenty of headwinds in store for the pound in the coming months.”

“The initial assessment from Bank staff is that the recent fiscal announcements were likely to be broadly neutral for the growth outlook, as higher spending on health and social care would be funded by an increase in National Insurance Contributions and a rise in dividend tax rates. In our view, these fiscal changes could result in a drop in demand making a rate hike next year unnecessary or worse still a policy mistake. If rates are hiked too early, any initial gains made by the pound would almost certainly be temporary.”

“We have a long standing year end forecast of EUR/GBP 0.84. However, given the fiscal headwinds and our view that the BoE will not be able to hike rates until 2023, this could prove overly optimistic for GBP.”

 

 

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ registered at $-3.196B, below expectations ($-1.626B) in August
Mexico Trade Balance, $ below expectations ($-1.064B) in August: Actual ($-3.902B)
In opinion of Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group?s Global Economics & Markets Research, USD/IDR faces some consolidation in the near term, likely between 14,

In opinion of Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research, USD/IDR faces some consolidation in the near term, likely between 14,220 and 14,280.

Key Quotes

“USD/IDR traded sideways and within relatively narrow ranges last week. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and further quiet trading would not be surprising. Expected range for this week, 14,220/14,280.”

Julia Goh, Senior Economist at UOB Group, and Economist Loke Siew Ting, reviews the latest BSP event. Key Takeaways ?As expected, Bangko Sentral ng Pi

Julia Goh, Senior Economist at UOB Group, and Economist Loke Siew Ting, reviews the latest BSP event.

Key Takeaways

“As expected, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continued to retain its accommodative monetary policy stance…  The central bank kept the overnight reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 2.00% for the seventh straight meeting. Likewise, both the overnight deposit rate and lending rate were also left untouched at 1.50% and 2.50% respectively.”

“In today’s monetary policy statement (MPS), the Monetary Board (MB) acknowledged upside risks to the nation’s inflation outlook over the next few months… BSP projects the nation’s headline inflation to stay above its 2.0%-4.0% target range and hover near 5% levels up to Oct, before tapering off towards the upper bound of its target range from Nov onwards and back within target range in 2022-2023.”

“Regarding the growth prospects, BSP continued to stress that the recovery will still hinge on timely measures to prevent deeper negative effects on the Philippine economy. The acceleration of the government’s vaccination program and a recalibration of existing quarantine protocols will be crucial in upholding economic activity while safeguarding public health and welfare.”

“Also, the latest MPS did not signal any potential rate change in either direction even though the US Fed has effectively issued the much-awaited tapering signal and a more aggressive rate hike timeline starting 2022 (details in link). Hence, we stick to our view that BSP will remain on hold until mid-2022.”

The global recovery has lost momentum, and is facing three key headwinds: the spread of the Delta variant, persistent supply chain bottlenecks, and th

The global recovery has lost momentum, and is facing three key headwinds: the spread of the Delta variant, persistent supply chain bottlenecks, and the unwind of government support. But despite the headwinds, economists at ABN Amro expect growth to remain above trend, with a services recovery that still has a long way to go.

The outlook for the global economy remains strong

“We continue to expect above trend growth to continue well into 2022, and after the current soft patch we expect the recovery to regain some momentum next year.”

“While goods consumption is due for a healthy correction, the services recovery has a long way to go before consumption returns to the pre-pandemic trend. The passing of the Delta wave is likely to give the services sector – which makes up the bulk of private consumption – a renewed boost.” 

“Growth will be helped by higher government investment, with Biden’s infrastructure spending plans in the US likely to start kicking in, and with the Recovery Fund in the eurozone starting to disburse to member states.” 

“While supply bottlenecks have proven more persistent than expected, they are still likely to ease to some extent in 2022, and this should give a new tailwind to the recovery, given the likely significant pent-up investment demand.”

“The normalisation of labour markets should also aid the recovery, and by the end of the year many economies should be back near pre-pandemic levels of employment.”

 

USD/ZAR continues to have the August peak at 15.3950 in its sights while remaining above 14.5682, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Comme

USD/ZAR continues to have the August peak at 15.3950 in its sights while remaining above 14.5682, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports.

August high is seen at 15.3950

“USD/ZAR’s steep ascent from its current September low at 14.0630 has now taken it above the July high at 14.9972 with the August peak at 15.3950 being next in line. This will be the case while the September 23 low at 14.5682 holds.” 

“Further up the September 2018 and January 2021 highs can be spotted at 15.6645/6945.”

“Minor support below 14.5682 is seen at the 14.4027 June 21 high. Much further down and below the 14.0206/13.9522 support area the June trough can be spotted at 13.4066.”

 

As Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, notes, the USD/RUB pair slides back towards its current September low at 72.24 below wh

As Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, notes, the USD/RUB pair slides back towards its current September low at 72.24 below which sits the June trough at 71.55.

Russian rouble looks solid

“If USD/RUB were to be slipped through the current September low at 72.24 on a daily chart closing basis, the June trough at 71.55 would be back in sight, now that last week’s attempt of a rally failed at the current September high at 73.62.”

“The current September high at 73.62 and the six month resistance line at 73.70 would need to be exceeded for the 200-day moving average at 74.09 to be back in play. Above it the August high can be spotted at 74.59. Further resistance can be seen between the 2020-2021 resistance line and the July high at 74.82/75.36.” 

“A daily chart close above 75.36 is needed to reassert a bullish bias for a challenge of resistance seen between the mid-December and January as well as February highs at 76.06/49 to ensue.”

 

USD/TRY?s advance above the previous all-time high at 8.8057 has so far taken it to its new all-time high at 8.8999. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technic

USD/TRY’s advance above the previous all-time high at 8.8057 has so far taken it to its new all-time high at 8.8999. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank , expects the pair to hit the 9.00 level.

2020-2021 resistance line at 8.9009 caps at present

“USD/TRY is currently being capped by the 2020-2021 resistance line at 8.9009 but once bettered, the psychological 9.0000 mark and a daily 0.1 x 3 vertical Point & Figure target at 9.1000 will be targeted next.”

“Minor support below the 8.7267/8.6824 August and September 20 high is seen between the breached four month resistance line and the 55-day moving average at 8.8618/8.5088.” 

“Key support remains to be seen between the June to current September lows at 8.2925/2605. Support below the 8.2605 June low comes in at the 8.2056 May low with further support being seen at the 8.1300 late April low.”

 

The USD/JPY pair shot to the highest level since July 5 during the first half of the European session, with bulls now eyeing a sustained move beyond t
  • USD/JPY attracted some dip-buying on Monday and turned positive for the fourth straight day.
  • The risk-on mood continued weighing on the safe-haven JPY and extended support to the pair.
  • A modest pickup in the USD demand provided an additional boost and remained supportive.

The USD/JPY pair shot to the highest level since July 5 during the first half of the European session, with bulls now eyeing a sustained move beyond the 111.00 mark.

Following an early dip to the 110.55-50 region, the USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on the first day of a new trading week and built on last week's solid rebound from the 109.10 support area. This marked the fourth successive day of a positive move and was sponsored by a combination of factors.

The prevalent risk-on mood – as depicted by an extension of a rally in the equity markets – undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen. This, along with a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand, provided and an additional boost to the USD/JPY pair and remained supportive of the ongoing bullish trajectory.

The USD remained well supported by prospects for an early interest rate hike by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the so-called dot plot indicated policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. This, to a larger extent, helped offset a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields.

Apart from this, the positive momentum could further be attributed to some follow-through technical buying after last week's sustained break through the 110.25-30 supply zone. A subsequent move beyond the previous monthly highs and the 111.00 mark now seems to have set the stage for further gains.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of Durable Goods Orders data. This, along with scheduled speeches by a slew of influential FOMC members, might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.

Technical levels to watch

 

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group?s Global Economics & Markets Research suggests USD/THB is likely to navigate within the 33.10-33.60 range for the time bei

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research suggests USD/THB is likely to navigate within the 33.10-33.60 range for the time being.

Key Quotes

USD/THB popped to a high of 33.60 last week before pulling back sharply. Upward momentum is beginning to wane and this coupled with overbought conditions indicate that USD/THB is unlikely to strengthen much further.”

“For this week, USD/THB is likely to trade between 33.10 and 33.60. Looking ahead, there is room for USD/THB to strengthen further and only a breach of the rising trend-line support (currently at 33.03) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

The selling pressure around the single currency remains well in place and now drags EUR/USD to fresh lows near 1.1680 on Monday. EUR/USD looks to doll
  • EUR/USD trades on the defensive below the 1.1700 level.
  • German 10-year yields trade closer to -0.20%, last seen in July.
  • ECB’s C.Lagarde speaks later in the European afternoon.

The selling pressure around the single currency remains well in place and now drags EUR/USD to fresh lows near 1.1680 on Monday.

EUR/USD looks to dollar, ECB

EUR/USD loses ground for the second session in a row and re-visits the sub-1.1700 region at the beginning of the week.

The firm note in the greenback keeps putting the pair and the risk-associated galaxy under extra pressure, all against the backdrop of the intense selloff in the global bond markets, in particularly following the FOMC event and the Powell’s press conference last Wednesday.

No impact on the FX space of the German elections on Sunday, which will likely see protracted negotiations between the winner party, the SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP party in order to form a coalition government.

The single currency derives extra downside pressure from Friday’s lower-than-expected Business Climate in Germany for the month of September, as per the IFO survey. This result adds to previous retracements seen in the flash PMIs and Economic Sentiment, among others, almost confirming the loss of momentum in the economic recovery.

In the domestic docket, the ECB’s M3 Money Supply expanded 7.9% in the year to August and Private Sector Loans rose at an annualized 4.2%. Additionally, Chairwoman C.Lagarde and Board member F.Panetta are due to speak.

Across the pond, Durable Goods Orders will take centre stage followed by the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Fed-speakers.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD remains under pressure and puts the 1.1700 level once again to the test at the beginning of the week. The firm sentiment surrounding the dollar is expected to persist for the time being and particularly now that the Committee sees higher rates in 2022 and the QE tapering process kicking in “soon”. In the euro region, the loss of momentum in the recovery, as per some weakness seen in key fundamentals, continues to undermine the mood around the shared currency.

Key events in the euro area this week: ECB’s Lagarde speech (Monday) – ECB Forum in Sintra, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech (Tuesday) – ECB Forum in Sintra, final Consumer Confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech (Wednesday) – German labour market report, German September flash inflation figures (Thursday) – German Retail Sales, final August PMIs, EMU preliminary inflation figures (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and pace of the vaccination campaign. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. Investors’ shift to European equities in the wake of the pandemic could lend extra oxygen to the single currency. ECB tapering speculations.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is losing 0.18% at 1.1698 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1755 (weekly high Sep.22) seconded by 1.1784 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1845 (weekly high Sep.14). On the other hand, a break below 1.1683 (monthly low Sep.23) would target 1.1663 (2021 low Aug.20) en route to 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4 2020).

In its latest statement released on Monday, the People?s Bank of China (PBOC) reiterated that they will make prudent monetary policy flexible, targete

In its latest statement released on Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reiterated that they will make prudent monetary policy flexible, targeted and appropriate.

Additional comments

“Will keep liquidity reasonably ample.”

“Will make credit growth more stable.”

“Will safeguard legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.”

“China's economic recovery not solid, unbalanced.”

“To push real lending rates to further fall.”

“Vow to ensure 'healthy' property market development.”

Market reaction

USD/CNY was last seen changing hands at 6.4583, down 0.06% on a daily basis.

The UK Environment Minister George Eustice said in a statement on Monday that there is no shortage of petrol. He added that the ?most important thing

The UK Environment Minister George Eustice said in a statement on Monday that there is no shortage of petrol.

He added that the “most important thing is for people to buy petrol as usual.”

Eustice said that they “have no plans yet to bring in army to do driving of trucks.”

His comments come as the fuel crisis in the UK aggravates, with the Petrol Retailers Association (PRA) having warned that as many as two-thirds of its membership of nearly 5,500 independent outlets are out of fuel, with the rest of them "partly dry and running out soon". 

Earlier, it was reported that the government is considering suspending competition law to allow oil firms to target fuel deliveries at petrol stations following recent panic buying, per BBC News.

Market reaction

The pound seems to have shrugged off the petrol problem, as GBP/USD advances towards 1.3700 amid the upbeat market mood. The spot is trading at 1.3692, up 0.09% on the day.

USD/TRY finds stiff resistance at $8.90 and recedes from near-record tops, pausing the three-day uptrend this Monday. The Turkish lira crumbled last w
  • USD/TRY sits at record highs after last week’s CBRT surprise rate cut.
  • Price could pull back amid overbought conditions on the daily chart.
  • Impending bull cross suggests buying the dips for USD/TRY traders.

USD/TRY finds stiff resistance at $8.90 and recedes from near-record tops, pausing the three-day uptrend this Monday.

The Turkish lira crumbled last week, falling to the lowest levels ever posted on record after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 18% on Thursday.

Markets view this surprise as negative, as the unexpected rate cut underscores the Turkish central bank’s fragile credibility, which continues to weigh on the lira. However, the risk-on mood-led broad US dollar weakness is seen saving the day for lira optimists for the time being.

At the time of writing, USD/TRY trades almost unchanged on the day at $8.86, having recorded all-time highs at $8.8968 on Friday.

From a near-term technical perspective, USD/TRY appears to take a breather amid overbought conditions showcased by the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).

However, any dip in the USD/TRY price could be seen as a good buying opportunity, suggested by an impending bull cross, which if materialized could signal buying resurgence.

The 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) has cut through the 50-DMA for the upside but traders await confirmation on a daily closing basis.

USD/TRY: Daily chart

On the upside, the 9.00 threshold needs to be cleared to head towards the 9.50 psychological level.

Meanwhile, any retracement could see initial demand emerging at Friday’s low of 8.76. The next downside target is seen at around 8.60, the round number.

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