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News

Analysts at Societe Generale offer their view on the pound, in light of the FOMC meeting and the ongoing Brexit chaos. Key Quotes: "Wednesday's FOMC

Analysts at Societe Generale offer their view on the pound, in light of the FOMC meeting and the ongoing Brexit chaos.

Key Quotes:

"Wednesday's FOMC meeting is being written up as the week's big event, though a rate change is highly unlikely. We think they'll confirm that the Fed's balance sheet run-off will end this year, though they may not give us a lot more detail than that. As for rate policy 'patience' is the watchword.´

The biggest driver, however, will be Brexit. There will be a meaningful vote on Mrs May's withdrawal agreement tomorrow, but only if she thinks it's likely to pass. The Times leader says "May woos Brexiteers but still faces defeat" in which case uncertainty drags on. Anything other than no-deal should support sterling, but uncertainty can hold it back for now." 

One-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) jumped 20 basis points to 2.97733 percent, the highest level since January 22.

One-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) jumped 20 basis points to 2.97733 percent, the highest level since January 22. 

The USD/CAD market has created back-to-back doji candle on the daily chart, signaling indecision near 1.33. A close below 1.3289 (the low of the doj

The USD/CAD market has created back-to-back doji candle on the daily chart, signaling indecision near 1.33. 

A close below 1.3289 (the low of the doji candle) would signal a resumption of the sell-off from the recent highs above 1.3460. Further, the probability of the spot finding acceptance under 1.3289 would rise if the diamond pattern seen in the 4-hour chart is breached to the downside. 

On the other hand, the odds of the pair revisiting 1.34 would strengthen if the diamond pattern is breached to the higher side.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 1.330 with diamond resistance and support, currently at 1.3363 and 1.3313, respectively. 

4-hour chart

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish below 1.3289

 

RBA?s pessimism and soft housing market data couldn?t disappoint Aussie buyers as risk sentiment remains strong. 0.7130/35 comprising 50-day SMA acts
  • RBA’s pessimism and soft housing market data couldn’t disappoint Aussie buyers as risk sentiment remains strong.
  • 0.7130/35 comprising 50-day SMA acts as immediate resistance contrast to 0.7050 support.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is taking the bids around 0.7100 versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Tuesday. The pair recently dropped to the day’s low near 0.7090 after RBA minutes and housing data disappointed the Aussie buyers. Though, overall strong risk sentiment and expectations of a dovish FOMC result on Wednesday continue to favor the pair’s upside momentum.

The minutes of the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on March 05 conveyed significant uncertainties on the economic outlook while giving equal importance to both the directions of rate change depending upon the incoming data. Additionally, the fourth quarter (Q4) house price index details dropped more than -2.0% forecast and -1.5% earlier on QoQ to -2.4% while yearly data marked -5.1% contraction versus -0.4% market consensus and -1.9% prior.

Except for the initial reaction, traders cared less for the Australian data/events amid growing risk-on sentiment amid optimism surrounding Brexit. Adding to pair’s strength was expectations that recent drawdown in the US data might push the Federal Reserve to trim their 2019 rate-hike predictions from 2 lifts to only one.

While developments concerning Brexit and speculations for Wednesday’s FOMC event may continue playing background music for the AUD/USD traders, January month Factory Orders from the US could act as an immediate catalyst. The factory orders are expected to grow by +0.3% against +0.1% previous expansion.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

50-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trend-line stretched since January 31 occupy 0.7130/35 resistance confluence that can challenge the AUD/USD pair’s near-term upside. Should the quote manage to cross 0.7135, 100-day SMA level of 0.7160, 0.7200 round-figure and 0.7230 level including 200-day SMA can please bulls.

Alternatively, 0.7050, 0.7020 and 0.7000 can entertain short-term sellers prior to questioning them with 0.6980 and 0.6950 supports.

Oil prices on both sides of Atlantic are reporting moderate gains at press tie just below the yearly highs clocked last week. Brent oil is currently
  • Oil benchmarks are trading within a striking distance from 2019 highs. 
  • OPEC's extension of supply cuts is likely boding well for prices. 
  • A pullback cannot be ruled out though if the US reports a big inventory buildup. 

Oil prices on both sides of Atlantic are reporting moderate gains at press tie just below the yearly highs clocked last week. 

Brent oil is currently trading at $67.60 per barrel, representing a 0.27 percent gain on the day, but slightly down from the 2019 high of $68.12 clocked last Thursday. 

Meanwhile, WTI oil is flatlined at $59.10, having clocked a yearly high of $59.21 yesterday. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday canceled its planned meeting in April, thereby extending supply cuts first initiated in January. 

With the cartel doing its bid to support its prices, traders have little reason to sell oil. 

Further, with major central banks adopting a dovish stance, there is a growing feeling that demand-side pressures may not see significant deterioration, as previously feared.

Even so, the bullish momentum may stall if the US oil output continues to surge, having soared by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018, to around 12 million bpd. 

As for today, a price pullback could be seen if the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports a big US inventory build up. The data is scheduled for release in the US session. 
 

Following the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia?s March 6th monetary policy meeting, the US investment bank ? JP Morgan is out w

Following the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 6th monetary policy meeting, the US investment bank – JP Morgan is out with its response on the same, courtesy Bloomberg.

Key Quotes:

“Members had a detailed discussion of the Bank's operations in repurchase and foreign exchange swap markets and their role in achieving the Board's target for the cash rate.

What that translates to is the RBA concern on higher rates in money markets, which would tend to diminish the impact of an RBA rate cut.

Whether this implies a great willingness to intervene in these markets remains to be seen.

But it certainly signals a desire to effect full transmission of easings, should they eventuate.”

In an interview with Bloomberg TV late-Monday, the US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted thatChina could triple its purchases of American farm

In an interview with Bloomberg TV late-Monday, the US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted that China could triple its purchases of American farm goods as part of a trade deal.

Key Quotes:

When compared with the nation's buying in 2017, "we could easily see, if we are able to come to a trade resolution, a doubling or tripling of that kind of number over a period of" two to five years.”

When asked on when we could expect the deal to be agreed to, he said: "Hopefully soon. Obviously these talks are complicated."

4-hour chart Trend: Bull above 6.74
  • USD/CNH's bearish-to-bullish trend change would be complete if and when the spot breaks above 6.74. 
  • The pair has already established a higher low at 6.70 on March 13 and a break above 6.74 would establish a higher high. Therefore, 6.74 is the level to beat for the bull. A close above that level would open up upside toward 6.7845. 
  • A close below 6.70 would weaken the prospects of a move above 6.74. 

4-hour chart

Trend: Bull above 6.74

 

 

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that Australia?s 3-year government bond yield dropped below the Reserve Bank of Australia?s (RBA) off

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that Australia’s 3-year government bond yield dropped below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) official cash rate (1.50%) for the first time since 2016.

The cash rate at the start of 2016 was 2%, was slashed by 25bps in May and August of that year. Since then the RBA has stayed pat on its cash rate at a record low, with markets now pricing in a rate cut in the coming months amid weakening fundamentals and trade uncertainty.

USD/JPY has dropped to 111.22 - the support of trendline connecting the Jan. 3 and Jan. 31 lows - and could extend the slide toward 111.00 as the RSI

USD/JPY has dropped to 111.22 - the support of trendline connecting the Jan. 3 and Jan. 31 lows - and could extend the slide toward 111.00 as the RSI on the 8-hour chart is reporting a bear flag breakdown, a bearish continuation pattern, which often ends up accelerating the preceding bearish move. 

Notably, the RSI is now reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 reading. 

8-hour chart

Trend: Bearish

 

Gold is reporting moderate gains at press time, possibly tracking the weak tone in the greenback ahead of the Fed. The yellow metal is currently tra
  • Gold is creeping up, amid a weak tone in the US dollar - gold's biggest nemesis. 
  • The Fed is expected to revise lower 2019-2020 interest rate forecasts. 
  • Gold needs a break above $1,311. 

Gold is reporting moderate gains at press time, possibly tracking the weak tone in the greenback ahead of the Fed. 

The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,305, representing a 0.16 percent gain on the day, having rallied 0.5 percent and 0.11 percent, respectively, in the previous two trading days. 

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against majors, is currently trading in the red at 96.48 and may suffer deeper losses below March 13 low of 96.39, as the US Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday and signal less inclination to hike rates in 2019 and 2020. 

The dovish Fed expectations, however, seem to be boding well for the equities. For instance, the S&P 500 index gained 0.37 percent yesterday and UK's FTSE strengthened 0.98 percent. 

Euro Stoxx 50, however, ended with marginal gains and the Asian stocks are currently trading mixed. 

Should the global equities pick up a strong bid ahead of the Fed, the haven demand for the metal will likely drop. In that case, gold may have a tough time breaching $1,311. 

Technically speaking, a break above that level would establish a bullish higher high on the daily chart and may bring further gains toward $1,330. 

Technical Levels

 

GBP/JPY is mildly bid near 147.60 during early Tuesday. The pair has been struggling with the overall risk-on sentiment and Brexit developments. Next
  • Mixed Brexit headlines, FOMC expectations and global growth concerns play their role.
  • UK employment figure can provide fresh impulse with Brexit progress being in the background.

GBP/JPY is mildly bid near 147.60 during early Tuesday. The pair has been struggling with the overall risk-on sentiment and Brexit developments. Next up in the traders’ radar will be British jobs data and progress over how the UK PM Theresa May prepares to confront the EU summit.

While expectations of monetary policy easing from the Fed and rejection of no-deal Brexit by the UK parliament seems in favor of the market’s recent risk-on mood, mixed set of headlines concerning further proceedings at the Britain and doubts over global growth challenge the pair’s an upside.

Latest among the Brexit headlines say the EU is ready for three-month extension to the March 29 deadline, PM May is expected to aim for nine to twelve month of a stretch, Tories are set for a strike if PM May doesn’t resign. Alternatively, recent data from the US, Australia and New Zealand haven’t been in market favor and continues to signal downside risk.

Additionally, PM May’s third Brexit proposal won’t be up for voting on Tuesday as the UK lawmakers oppose any deals similar to the previous ones that were already rejected. Hence, PM May is now forced to attend Thursday’s EU summit with empty hand requesting for a deadline extension.

The UK jobs report is set to release January month average earnings and unemployment rate details together with February month claimant count data at 09:30 GMT. No change is expected in the unemployment rate and average earnings excluding bonus numbers of 4.0% and 3.4%. However, headline average earnings could soften to 3.2% from 3.4% whereas claimant count change might also decline to 3.7K from 14.2K.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

Immediate ascending support-line stretched since March 08 at 147.00 may challenge short-term sellers, a break of which can print 146.50 and 145.40 on the chart whereas 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and two-month-old ascending trend-line, around 144.70/65, could limit further downside.

148.40 seem adjacent resistance ahead of the pair’s rise to 149.00 trend-line joining highs since September 2018.

In their latest client note, analysts at TD Securities (TDS) revised their forecast lower for the Canadian dollar for this year. Key Quotes: ?The st

In their latest client note, analysts at TD Securities (TDS) revised their forecast lower for the Canadian dollar for this year.

Key Quotes:

“The strategic outlook for the CAD has shifted considerably to the downside. 

This follows a deeper slowdown to growth in H2-2018 and a near-capitulation by the Bank of Canada.

Indeed, we now think the BoC has marked an end to its tightening cycle. If policymakers move this year, it is more likely to be a cut.

The global backdrop remains an important driver for the CAD. It is now clear, however, that the domestic economy has a real problem on its hands.  … we are already short CAD on crosses.

We have revised our forecast higher for USDCAD. 

We see persistence around the 1.36 level this year. Despite this, we nonetheless think that the balance of risks implies that the pair will spend much of its time this year in a broad 1.35-1.40 range.”

AUD/JPY's previous 4-hour candle closed at 78.99, confirming a rising wedge breakdown - a bearish reversal pattern. So, the pair may fall back to 78

AUD/JPY's previous 4-hour candle closed at 78.99, confirming a rising wedge breakdown - a bearish reversal pattern. 

So, the pair may fall back to 78.83 (4H 200-candle MA). Validating that bearish case is the negative crossover of the 5- and 10-candle moving averages (MA). 

On the higher side, a break above 78.74 would confirm a channel breakout on the daily chart and could yield a rally toward     81.18 (Nov. 21 low). 

4-hour chart

Daily chart

Trend: Cautiously bearish

 

WTI Daily Chart.
  • As an update to the following, WTI Technical Analysis: Bulls creeping towards critical break up level, eye 61.8% Fibo through 63 handle, a spanner in the works for the bulls has been identified. 
  • While bulls are on track for a potential run higher, subsequent to a break of the descending trend line resistance at current levels, bulls will need to break out of the rising wedge formation's resistance just below the 62 handle at 61.86.
  • However, the Ichimoku Cloud will likely remain bullish, so long as the price subsequently holds above the 59 handle on a rejection at wedge resistance on first attempt, leaving the outlook positive for an eventual run to 61.8% fibo target.

WTI Daily Chart.

 

 

 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7062 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7088.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7062 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7088. 

USD/JPY has taken a 20 pip thump in Tokyo but has since moved into a sideways drift, with demand coming in at S1 and the dollar stabilising - (It was
  • USD/JPY fell from 111.60 to 111.30.
  • US equities reached highs since Oct 2018.

USD/JPY has taken a 20 pip thump in Tokyo but has since moved into a sideways drift, with demand coming in at S1 and the dollar stabilising - (It was a potentially large order being executed ahead of the FOMC later this week?):

Fed outlook:

"This week’s Fed meeting will see interest rates left unchanged and the central bank sticking to its “patient” approach to policymaking. However, look out for announcements regarding the balance sheet with “quantitative tightening” seemingly coming to end, analysts at ING Bank explained. 

Looking to the Futures markets, it continues to price out the possibility of any further Fed rate hikes in this cycle, but there is an increasing chance now up to  30% of a cut by December.

As for the US session, Wall Street was creeping higher to fresh highs ina four-session winning streak of the Dow:

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 65 points, or less than 0.3%, to finish near 25,912, based on preliminary numbers.
  • The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3% to end around 7,714. 
  • The S&P 500 rose less than 0.4% to end near 2,833.

USD/JPY fell from 111.60 to 111.30 during the course of the day while the US 10yr treasury yield ranged sideways between 2.58% and 2.61%.

USD/JPY levels

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, that on a daily basis, the pair has set a lower low and a lower high, a sign of mounting downward pressure, although it still stuck to its 100 and 200 DMA, both directionless and converging in a tight 10 pips' range:

"The bearish case continues building up according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as the pair is barely holding above a bullish 100 SMA, while technical indicators entered bearish ground, the Momentum heading sharply lower and the RSI flat at around 47."

The AUD/NZD pair slipped nearly 15 pips from the intra-day high to 1.0360 just after the Reserve Bank of Australia?s (RBA) monetary policy meeting min
  • RBA minute’s “significant uncertainties” and sluggish Australian housing market numbers triggered AUD/NZD pullback.
  • Overall strength remains less affected due to risk-on.

The AUD/NZD pair slipped nearly 15 pips from the intra-day high to 1.0360 just after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes and the Australian house price index released on early Tuesday. The pair was earlier taking advantage of risk-on sentiment amid no-deal Brexit, market support for easy monetary policy from the Fed and soft New Zealand consumer survey results.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened across the board after RBA minutes and housing numbers raised difficulties for the Aussie buyers. The RBA minutes said that the central-bank marked significant uncertainties while giving room to either side monetary policy changes depended on incoming data during its latest meeting. The house price index figures for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018, on the other hand, dropped to -2.4% versus -2.0% market consensus and -1.5% prior. It should also be noted that the YoY housing figures were more disappointing as they slumped -5.0% against -0.4% forecast and -1.9% earlier.

Earlier during the day, Westpac released New Zealand consumer survey result for the first quarter of 2019. The consumer sentiment outcome wasn’t a welcome one as it lagged behind 109.1 prior to 103.8.

Pair has been on recovery mode backed by Aussie’s risk-on demand since Friday after the British parliament rejected no-deal Brexit and favored an extension to March 29 deadline. Adding to the sentiment were expectations of dovish monetary policy outlook by the US Federal Reserve at Wednesday’s appearance.

Looking forward, traders may now concentrate on risk sentiment to determine immediate market moves. Among them, Brexit, US-China trade talks and expectations surrounding FOMC could grab the headlines.

AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

An eight-week-long descending trend-line continues to become strong upside resistance at 1.0400, break of which could accelerate the moves toward current month high near 1.0450 and then to another downward sloping resistance-line, at 1.0500.

During the pullback, 1.0340 and 1.0320 may try challenging sellers, if not then chances of witnessing 1.0290 again on the chart can’t be denied.

Japan's Economy Minister Motegi on Tuesday said that he is hoping the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to do its utmost toward achieving the 2 percen

Japan's Economy Minister Motegi on Tuesday said that he is hoping the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to do its utmost toward achieving the 2 percent inflation target. 

The central bank has been running a massive stimulus program since April 2013. So far, however, the price goal has remained elusive, forcing many to question the need for inflation targeting.

Further, with impending sales tax hike, the probability of the BOJ hitting the inflation target any time soon is quite low. 
 

Both the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March monetary policy meeting and a below-forecast housing data released soon before press t
  • RBA minutes offered little hawkish or dovish surprises. 
  • Aussie house prices fell more than expected in the fourth quarter. The AUD, however, is showing resilience to weak data. 
  • AUD/USD may rise to the 50-day MA at 0.7133 if the equities pick up a strong bid. 

Both the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March monetary policy meeting and a below-forecast housing data released soon before press time have so far failed to move the needle on the Aussie dollar. 

To start with, the RBA minutes took note of the "significant uncertainties" to the economic outlook, especially with respect to domestic demand (consumption), but reiterated that there is no strong case for a near-term policy adjustment. 

It added further that the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced" between an interest rate hike and an interest rate cut. 

All-in-all, minutes offered little hawkish or dovish surprises, leaving the AUD/USD pair largely unaffected near 0.71. 

Meanwhile, the Aussie house price index dropped 2.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, beating the expected decline of 2 percent, the official data released a few minutes ago showed. The data will likely reinforce RBA's fears of a marked slowdown in dwelling investment in the near-term. The Aussie dollar, however, is showing resilience to weak housing data. 

The currency pair, therefore, may turn green above 0.71, if the equities put on a good show. As of writing, the futures on the S&P 500 are flat lined. 

Technical Levels

 

The minutes from the RBA Board?s 6 March meeting have arrived as follows, (Note: "The meeting was a day before Q4 GDP data that printed weaker than RB

The minutes from the RBA Board’s 6 March meeting have arrived as follows, (Note: "The meeting was a day before Q4 GDP data that printed weaker than RBA expectations, which limits the value of the discussion on growth at least. Commentary on housing will also be noted with interest" - analysts at Westpac observed and explained):

  • Saw scenarios where might be appropriate to eventually raise rates, or cut rates;
  • Scenarios more evenly balanced than they had been last year;
  • Board agreed no strong case for near-term move in rates;
  • Awaiting new information to resolve tension between solid jobs market, soft gdp;
  • Labour market continued to improve, unemployment seen falling to 4.75 pct;
  • Slower consumption in nsw linked to drop in home prices, lower turnover in housing market;
  • Slowdown in home loans mainly due to softer demand, but tighter credit played a part;
  • Saw risk of "Marked slowing" in dwelling investment in one to two year's time;
  • Tighter credit constraining demand for off-the-plan, project homes;
  • Conditions in drought-hit farm sector to remain difficult in near term;
  • AUD had been broadly steady, within narrow range of recent years;
  • Trade tensions a continued source of uncertainty for world outlook.

Note: There was not much expected in the RBA minutes, with Lowe speaking post the meeting saying that he is watching the labour market for developments.

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

Australia House Price Index (YoY) below expectations (-0.4%) in 4Q: Actual (-5%)
Australia House Price Index (YoY) came in at -5.1% below forecasts (-0.4%) in 4Q
Australia House Price Index (QoQ) registered at -2.4%, below expectations (-2%) in 4Q
GBPUSD has been in a broad corrective process since August and anything up to 1.3526-1.3549 can still be interpreted as counter-trend, according to Go

GBPUSD has been in a broad corrective process since August and anything up to 1.3526-1.3549 can still be interpreted as counter-trend, according to Goldman Sachs' technical analysts. 

Key points

The level to focus on is 1.3526-1.3549, as this area includes two separate ABC targets from January and February.

A break above that resistance range is needed to assume that a more meaningful rally is perhaps developing.

GBP/USD daily chart
  • GBP/USD is moving towards a breakout point within a rising wedge on the daily chart and testing an hourly resistance structure within the wedge - where topside failure is to be expected noting the bearish RSI divergence, ultimately reinforcing the case for the downside.
  • As can be seen in the chart below, 1.3290s is a key resistance level and will determine whether the pair breaks out to the top side or fall out of the wedge to the downside on sustained pressures below it.
  • However, the price still has some work to do until it reaches the narrowest point of the daily wedge.
  • A break to the downside and below the 1.3180s support would be expected to make way for a test of 1.3100.
  • Then, below the 1.3000 opens a double Fibo retracement at 1.2900/1.2895 guarding the recent low at 1.2772.
  • However, GBP is trading erratically due to Brexit headlines which likely jeopardises the traditional technical chart patterns. A breakout is expected one way or another depending on the outcome of the fundamentals. In such a scenario, the flash crash lows, 1.2456, and late 1.40 the figure guarding mid-April highs in the 1.4380s would be targetted.

GBP/USD daily chart

NZD/USD daily chart NZD/USD trades near 0.6845 during early Asian sessions on Tuesday. The pair recently reversed from seven-week-old descending t

NZD/USD daily chart

  • NZD/USD trades near 0.6845 during early Asian sessions on Tuesday.
  • The pair recently reversed from seven-week-old descending trend-line, which in-turn portrays brighter chances of its pullback to 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure around 0.6815.
  • Should the quote drops beneath 0.6815, 0.6790 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6770 can entertain sellers ahead of pleasing them with 200-day SMA level of 0.6740.
  • On the contrary, an upside clearance of 0.6880 resistance-line could trigger pair’s rise to 0.6905-10 horizontal area including multiple highs marked since February 04.
  • Assuming pair’s successful advance past-0.6910, 0.6945 and 0.6970 may flash on Bulls’ radar.

 

NZD/USD 4-Hour chart

  • An immediate upward sloping support-line since March 07, at 0.6835, can restrict nearby declines.
  • 0.6925 may act as an intermediate halt between 0.6910 and 0.6940.

 

NZD/USD hourly chart

  • 50% Fibonacci retracement may act as a buffer near 0.6800 round-figure if the quote declines below 0.6815 and aims for 0.6790.
  • Also, 0.6860 could become adjacent resistance to watch.

AUD/JPY hourly chart AUD/JPY Overview: Today Last Price:79.09 Today Daily change:0.12pips Today Daily change %:0.15% Today Da
  • AUD/JPY flirts with 79.00 during early Tuesday.
  • Having reversed from 79.35-40 horizontal-resistance during Monday, the quote dropped to test support-line of an ascending trend-channel formation established since March 08.
  • The formation support near 79.00 round-figure becomes an immediate important support for the sellers to watch as a break of which can drag the quote down to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 78.70 whereas 78.40/35 and 78.15 likely entertaining bears afterward.
  • During pair’s additional weakness under 78.15, 77.90 and 77.70 could regain market attention.
  • On the contrary, 79.20 may limit nearby upside prior to shifting the focus back on 79.35/40 area comprising highs marked during recent two weeks.
  • Given the pair’s ability to cross 79.40, current month high around 79.65, followed by channel-resistance of 79.80 and 80.00 mark could please buyers.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

Additional important levels:

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 79.09
    Today Daily change: 12 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.15%
    Today Daily Open: 78.97
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 78.97
    Daily SMA50: 78.62
    Daily SMA100: 79.7
    Daily SMA200: 80.53
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 79.25
    Previous Daily Low: 78.85
    Previous Weekly High: 79.25
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.91
    Previous Monthly High: 79.85
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.44
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 79.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 79
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.8
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 78.62
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 78.4
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 79.2
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 79.42
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.6

 

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board?s 5th March meeting are due on Tuesday after the central bank, as widely expected, left the offic

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board’s 5th March meeting are due on Tuesday after the central bank, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting, unchanged yet again. The minute statement is less likely to be anything particularly market moving given previously conveyed dovish tone from the monetary policy statement and speeches from the RBA Governor are already factored in. So, the main focus will stay on how the central bank justifies its cash rate position as "more evenly balanced than previously."

Ahead of the release, analysts at Westpac say,

The minutes from the RBA Board’s 6 March meeting are due at 11:30 am Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK. The statement on the day was reasonably upbeat, repeating the forecast for the Australian economy to grow 3% in 2019, “supported by rising business investment, higher levels of spending on public infrastructure and increased employment.” The meeting was a day before Q4 GDP data that printed weaker than RBA expectations, which limits the value of the discussion on growth at least. Commentary on housing will also be noted with interest.

On the other hand, TD Securities was of the view that the release is more likely to be a non-event as it’s report said,

RBA Minutes for the 5 Mar Board meeting are released and unlikely to provide new news aside from the reiteration of balanced risks to the outlook.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

In light of sluggish Australian GDP and dovish comments favoring a rate-cut from the RBA Governor Philip Lowe, any signals for future policy change and/or downside economic risk could drag the AUD/USD to Thursday’s low near 0.7040 with 0.7000 and 0.6980 being follow-on important supports. However, a repeat of the earlier emphasis on upbeat investment scenario and employment reports may as well help the pair to confront 0.7135-40 resistance confluence comprising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trend-line stretched since January-end.

Key notes:

AUD/USD erases daily gains, settles below 0.71

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie trading at daily lows

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

  • While WTI holds above the double-top highs and above the 57.80/90 horizontal prior resistance line going back to mid-Nov 2018, the market leans bullish.
  • A break out of the wedge's resistance through the 59.70s is needed where bulls will then look to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows in the 63.70s, reviving prospects for the 70 handle.
  • On the flipside, a fall to 54.50 will open a case for 50.50 as the 23.6% Fibo support structure.
  • Pivot points: S1 58.48 S2 57.76 S3 57.39
  • Pivot points: R1 59.57 R2 60.00 R3 60.85

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