US PCE Price Index rises 2.8% in September as expected
- US core PCE inflation edged lower to 2.8% in September.
- US Dollar Index stays marginally lower on the day near 99.00.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in September, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday. This print followed the 2.7% increase recorded in August and came in line with the market expectation. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index was up 0.3%, matching analysts' estimate and the August print.
The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.8% on a yearly basis, down from 2.9% in August.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these figures and was last seen posting small daily losses near 99.00.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.